Fantasy Football Week 5: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

It's our goal as daily fantasy football players to convert the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace. 

The erosion of rosters is undeniable in such a physical sport, as we see notable contributors get injured each week both in games and in practices. The Philadelphia Eagles' Zach Ertz, pictured above making an impressive one-handed haul in Week 1, is on the positive side of a recent injury and is set to return to action. 

A rib injury to Ertz saw him miss the past two games, but a bye week in Week 4 and some time to heal has him positioned to return to the field at deflated pricing on DFS markets, an inefficiency informed investors can exploit for a choice matchup with a generous Detroit Lions secondary. 

This is just one example of how we pair news with pricing as a means to grind for improved results from our daily fantasy lineups. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market this week, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

Several Key Injuries at Tight End to Follow for Fantasy Purposes

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With a number of top talents at tight end dealing with injuries that affect the daily fantasy marketplace, let's canvas the position with notable updates heading into Week 5.

Tyler Eifert is expected to miss yet another game for the Cincinnati Bengals, per Bob Holtzman of ESPN.com. The talented red-zone maven had 13 touchdowns last season and has been sorely missed by Andy Dalton, as the team has regularly stalled this season. With a back ailment cropping up as he recovers from offseason ankle surgery, Eifert is a game-time decision. We're leaving him off our list in daily fantasy football, especially as his price is still at something of a premium.

Eric Ebron of the Detroit Lions isn’t expected to play against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon, per Adam Caplan of ESPN. Ankle and knee injuries have slowed down the talented receiving tight end, which is a shame given that his current pace for 72 receptions and 840 yards proves impressive at a shallow position. We can expect an uptick in usage for top wideout Marvin Jones, who is a fine high-floor option to consider.

The word on Rob Gronkowski from NFL Network's Mike Garafolo is that the tight end just isn't himself yet, as a lingering hamstring injury has kept him from going full "Gronkey Kong" on the gridiron. The return of Tom Brady is a boon to his upside, but we're not paying the extreme premium on Gronkowski until we see him healthy.

The San Diego Chargers' Antonio Gates returned to practice on Wednesday in limited fashion after missing several games with a hamstring injury, per Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Gates has struggled when active this season, while rookie Hunter Henry has thrived in his place, but his red-zone rapport with Philip Rivers and the fact that the Raiders have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position dating back to last season help promote some value for him as a flier in DFS play.

A key target for the Eagles is set to return to action, as tight end Zach Ertz is cleared to play after suffering a scary rib injury in Week 1, per Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice. Ertz could feast on a Lions team allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends on DraftKings' scoring key. Ertz costs just $3,500 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel, as he's a fine building block for DFS investors in Week 5.

Major Injury to Kevin White Creates Opportunity in Chicago

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The Chicago Bears' Kevin White, unfortunately, can't stay on the field, as Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the second-year receiver has been placed on injured reserve with a significant ankle injury.

We can safely cut White in all season-long fantasy formats, but how should we approach this news in daily fantasy?

For starters, let's consider White led the team in market share of the passing game over the past two weeks with 27.8 percent of the team's targets. This means a valuable portion of the target pie is up for grabs.

Alshon Jeffery has proved to be a big-play threat this season with 18.6 yards per reception. He continues to battle nagging soft-tissue injuries, but an uptick in targets would aid his upside as a tournament option in DFS thanks to his field-stretching ability.

Jeffery's average target has traveled a team-high 14.7 air yards, while White was second with 12.7. No other Chicago receiver has averaged more than 7.05 air yards, so the deep work is almost exclusively Jeffery's to consume.

We don't trust Jeffery in cash games given his inconsistent production and injury concerns, but he could be a slate-shifting tournament ticket to target in a matchup with an exploitable Indianapolis Colts secondary that ranks 31st in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus.

The sneaky target to consider could be Eddie Royal, as he developed a strong rapport with Brian Hoyer last week in catching all seven of his targets while averaging nearly 16 yards per reception. Royal is just $4,200 on DraftKings and $5,700 on FanDuel for this choice matchup.

Hoyer is slated to start again in place of Jay Cutler, making cheap stacks with Jeffery or Royal wise differentiation investments for tournaments.

Sammie Coates Emerging as a Top Tournament Option for Week 5

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The Pittsburgh Steelers' sluggish offensive outing in South Philly in Week 3 looked like an aberration after this past Sunday's explosion against the Kansas City Chiefs, which saw them score 22 points in the first quarter—the most points they've ever scored in the first quarter of a game in 1,144 franchise regular-season contests.

Part of this statistical success was due to the explosive verticality wideout Sammie Coates offers, as he led the team in yardage, receptions and targets in the victory. Coates takes the top off defenses, which is to say he's the deep threat for Ben Roethlisberger's big arm.

For the season, Coates' average target has traveled 19.9 air yards, highest on the team. For some context, Antonio Brown's average target travels just over 11 air yards. While Coates is viewed as a part-time specialist, it's important to consider that he's played more snaps, run more routes and netted more targets than Markus Wheaton over the past two weeks.

The assumption was Wheaton would resume full-time duties on the outside of the Steelers offense and complement Brown, but Coates is emerging as a target of choice for Roethlisberger in the Martavis Bryant role as the field-stretcher.

Gifted with an explosion score—a measure of broad jump, vertical jump and short-yardage burst—in the 96th percentile among wideout prospects since 1999, per Mock Draftable, Coates is a rare athlete who differentiates from the crowd at a position rife with elite specimens.

The New York Jets are allowing the most yards per passing attempt this season, and it's clear the Steelers should try to get Coates some reps against Darrelle Revis, who ranked 104th in coverage grading among 114 corners on Pro Football Focus.

"Revis Island" is now an all-inclusive resort. Discounted shares of Coates, who costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel, are helpful for allocating more money at the other skill positions in both tournaments and cash games this week.

Arian Foster Makes Surprise Return to Practice

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

The Miami Dolphins running game has been dormant this season, ranking 28th in yardage and 26th in the rate of first downs via the run. A splintered share of touches between four middling tailbacks over the past three weeks hasn't helped, so the return of Arian Foster to practice on Wednesday, per Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post, is a welcome sign for the team's imbalanced offense.

Foster brings deft receiving skills to the field and is of immediate interest on DraftKings' point-per-reception scoring key if he returns against the Tennessee Titans this week. At just $4,700 on DraftKings, the risk is worth the potential reward his high-floor receiving role offers. We're not as interested in shares of Foster on FanDuel, as he costs $6,700 on its half-point reception model.

The Titans have been solid against opposing tailbacks, ceding just the second-fewest fantasy points to the position this season on DraftKings, but with deflated pricing, Foster is an intriguing option based on his ability to consolidate the fractured workload we've witnessed for the Miami backfield of late.

Appreciating Tom Brady's Return from Suspension

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The return of Tom Brady is of vital importance in real and fantasy football given how depressed the team's passing game has been in his absence. A scaled-down passing playbook with rookie Jacoby Brissett over the past week hit its nadir this past week, as the Patriots were shut out at home for the first time since November 1993.

We doubt the Patriots will be kept off the scoreboard in Cleveland against the Browns this Sunday. The Pats are the biggest favorites of the week in a game with a healthy point total hovering around 47 points, per Odds Shark, suggesting blowout ingredients are in place for Brady's season debut.

So how does this affect our investment strategy in daily fantasy football this week?

Let's first consider the production precedent for Brady in such a favorable position against a winless opponent in his career, as he’s compiled 19 passing scores with just three interceptions in winning all five career meetings against an 0-4 opponent. This includes two games with six touchdowns, so the ceiling is quite high based on precedent.

Brady is the second-most expensive arm on both DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend, but with good reason given the aforementioned precedent of elite production.

As for his top targets, we don't yet trust Rob Gronkowski. He's still "not right," per NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. Soon enough, he can "Make America Gronk Again," but he's simply not at 100 percent, per Garafolo's report.

Instead, we'd like to stack Brady with target hog Julian Edelman, who was on pace for 108 catches and over 1,200 yards last season before injury cut his campaign short. On DraftKings' point-per-reception market in particular, Edelman is a superb stack partner for Brady. Even cheaper shares of wideout Chris Hogan are intriguing, as he flashed a big-play rapport in the preseason with Brady.

Latavius Murray's Injury Creates Intrigue for DeAndre Washington

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Important NFL news often undergoes a progression as information is revealed. For example, we learned on Wednesday afternoon that Oakland Raiders running back Latavius Murray had missed practice with a toe injury and has been in a walking boot in recent days, according to Scott Bair of CSN California.

By Wednesday night, the story advanced into Murray appearing unlikely to play in Week 5 against the San Diego Chargers, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Murray's grip on the feature gig was already slipping, as he's handled fewer touches in each successive week and accounts for just 42.1 percent of the team's rushes and 33.9 percent of the rushing yardage.

The most likely beneficiary of Murray's potential absence is DeAndre Washington, a shifty and speedy running back out of Texas Tech who proved in college an ability to handle a significant workload, as he touched the ball 274 times last season for the Red Raiders.

With a strong receiving pedigree in college, evidenced by 10 yards per catch over his final two seasons for Texas Tech, a respectable floor for yardage emerges if we can assume Washington consumes the majority of early-down work to complement his upside as a receiver for the Raiders.

Fellow rookie Jalen Richard will play a more important role if Murray sits, as ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez expects to see a nearly even split of rushing duties, but Washington delivers more pedigree in the passing game and thus a more intriguing ceiling for fantasy purposes. Washington, after all, ranked second in the 2016 draft class in elusive rating on College Football Focus, a measure of forced missed tackles per touch.

It's a bit of guesswork, really, but if the Raiders ever do intend to audition Washington for the feature gig, this is an ideal opportunity. The Chargers have ceded the third-most receiving yards (69.5) per game to running backs, six rushing scores and the second-most fantasy points per game on DraftKings' scoring model.

You can invest in Washington for just $3,400 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel, making him an important upside asset in tournaments this week.

Injury to San Diego's Secondary Opens Up Stack Options for Oakland

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The loss of elite cover corner Jason Verrett for the Chargers with a season-ending knee injury—per Adam Schefter and Eric D. Williams of ESPN—adds to a devastating year for the team in terms of health to their key impact talents. Verrett earned the second-highest coverage grade on Pro Football Focus last season among NFL corners and has been shadowing top wideouts throughout this season.

We rarely focus so closely on defensive players when discussing fantasy football, but the loss of Verrett creates added value for the Raiders' top targets, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Crabtree enjoyed a career outing last week with three scores, while Cooper is on pace for nearly 1,300 yards and 80 receptions. The missing element for Cooper so far is entering the end zone, as he's yet to score.

With the San Diego secondary set to be shuffled in the wake of Verrett's injury, contrarian shares of Cooper and his quiet season could prove profitable in daily fantasy play.

The Raiders are home favorites in a game with the highest implied point total of the week, per Odds Shark, so getting shares of this offense is advisable. We touched on the Oakland backfield in a separate slide in this piece, so stacking signal-caller Derek Carr with one of Cooper and Crabtree with the team's rookie runner DeAndre Washington is an attractive angle to consider in tournaments.

Target, defensive allowance, snap and route percentage data sourced from an ESPN database for this article.