Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 14 Futures Report
As you push forward through the fantasy football playoffs, NFL teams have just four weeks left in the regular season to lock up a spot in the postseason.
If you’re a team like the Kansas City Chiefs, it makes sense to keep featuring your most productive players down the stretch. That’s been the case with Tyreek Hill, as we saw in Kansas City’s Week 14 victory over the Oakland Raiders.
Take a hint from the Chiefs and understand that if they believe in Hill, then he’s good enough to have a spot in your fantasy playoff starting lineup. It’s easy to stick with Travis Kelce because he has a proven track record, but the decisions that will win you a championship may include players like Hill.
It wasn’t easy getting this far in the fantasy season, so it shouldn’t be any easier on your way to a fantasy championship.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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I’ve already looked at the best options from the waiver wire, but with the news and updated injury information we’ve received since, here are some useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Jermaine Gresham, ARI
Percent Owned: ESPN, 13.1; Yahoo, 4.0
The minefield that is the tight end position in fantasy isn’t easy to navigate when you’re without a reliable weekly option. Because there aren’t many of those, you could be hitting the waiver wire to find players with the best matchups. Before you skip over the Arizona Cardinals, take a look at Gresham.
In the last three weeks, Gresham has 12 receptions for 120 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets. He’s put up double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats in each of those games, which is helping to fill the void in the team’s receiving corps behind Larry Fitzgerald (and David Johnson). With the Miami Dolphins on deck this weekend, Gresham has the easiest matchup of any tight end in Week 14 based on fantasy points allowed in the last four weeks.
Vance McDonald, SF
Percent Owned: ESPN, 14.0; Yahoo, 16.0
I completely understand if you want nothing to do with the San Francisco 49ers after the debacle that took place in Chicago last weekend, but if you’re desperate at tight end, McDonald could be worth a shot.
Prior to his two receptions for nine yards in Week 13, McDonald had 14 receptions for 240 yards and two touchdowns on 26 targets in his previous four games. During that time, he averaged 12.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. That obviously lines up with Colin Kaepernick’s strong play over that month and the two could get back on track this weekend against the visiting New York Jets.
Led by Indianapolis Colts tight end Dwayne Allen, the Jets gave up 10 receptions for 117 yards and three touchdowns to the position last week and allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends in the last four weeks. With the matchup in McDonald’s favor, you might be brave enough to take a look at someone besides Carlos Hyde for the 49ers in the fantasy playoffs.
Ted Ginn Jr., CAR
Percent Owned: ESPN, 21.4; Yahoo, 27.0
With almost nothing going right for the Carolina Panthers, it’s easy to overlook Ginn’s production over the last three weeks. He has touchdowns of 55, 88 and 40 yards in the last three games with a total of 12 receptions for 240 yards (20 yards per catch) on 20 targets. He’s been the top receiver and top fantasy option in Carolina during that time.
Unlike Gresham and McDonald, Ginn doesn’t have a prime matchup this weekend, as the Panther host the San Diego Chargers. They come into Week 14 with the seventh-fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers in the last four weeks.
Basically, you’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Ginn as the hottest player on a bad team. He’s a high-ceiling play with a floor that isn’t as low as usual because he has five receptions in five of his last seven games.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Dak Prescott, DAL
In their Week 13 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, Prescott had 37 yards on six carries and just 139 passing yards and one touchdown on 12-of-18 passing, but the Cowboys still moved to 11-1. They’ll have a chance to avenge their lone loss of the season when they face the New York Giants on the road in Week 14.
This should be a better week for Prescott from a fantasy perspective, although it shouldn’t be considered a favorable matchup. While Prescott is a more viable option than last week against Minnesota, just know that the Cowboys can win without Prescott putting up big fantasy numbers.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Carson Wentz, PHI
The strong start to the season for Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles is nothing more than a distant memory. The team lost their last three games with another tough battle against the Washington Redskins coming in Week 14.
In their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, Wentz completed 36 of 60 passes for 308 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. He’s getting very little help from his receiving corps and the team doesn’t have anywhere near a reliable ground game.
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
Siemian’s foot injury was bad enough to keep him out of action last week, so Lynch was called upon to start for the second time this season in a road game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Lynch had a forgettable performance in the tough matchup, with 104 yards on 12-of-24 passing and 11 yards on two carries.
Siemian’s been able to get some practice in this week, so he’ll have a better chance to play when the Denver Broncos travel in Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. While Siemian is tough to trust as a fantasy starter, having him under center does give a boost to wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff’s third start was a step backward. In an ugly loss to the New England Patriots, the rookie completed just 14 of 32 attempts for 161 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He was sacked four times, bringing the total to eight sacks in three games. Hopefully, he can move back in the right direction with an easier matchup at home against the Atlanta Falcons.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jordan Howard, CHI
Howard had a glorious performance in the snow last week by taking advantage of a great matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. The weather made it difficult to get anything going through the air, so Howard had his busiest game to date with 32 carries for 117 yards with three touchdowns.
The consistency of Howard’s season is pretty amazing considering the Chicago Bears are a three-win team with injuries all over the offense. Howard has five games of 100 rushing yards and at least 99 total yards in five straight games. He remains a must-start and will be an asset to your playoff roster.
Thomas Rawls, SEA
In Week 13, Rawls finally returned to the form we saw as a rookie in 2015. He busted up the Carolina Panthers for 106 yards on 15 carries, including two touchdowns. Since returning, Rawls has just four receptions for 43 yards on six targets, so unless there’s an uptick in his role as a receiver, he’ll need to keep a heavy workload and find the end zone to be a RB1. Those opportunities should come against the Green Bay Packers in Week 14.
Jay Ajayi, MIA
Ajayi was a victim of game flow in last week’s embarrassing loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, but he had just 12 carries for 61 yards. Luckily, he was able to salvage his fantasy production with six receptions for 26 yards on seven targets. Unfortunately, he’ll have another tough matchup against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14, so expectations should be adjusted accordingly.
Rob Kelley, WAS
Speaking of the Cardinals, Kelley took them on last week and wound up with 63 yards on 14 carries (4.5 yards per carry), but didn’t score and didn’t have a reception. Unfortunately, because Kelley doesn’t have a role in the passing game, his margin for error is small, which means he needs to score and/or carry a heavy workload on a regular basis.
According to JP Finlay of CSN Mid-Atlantic, head coach Jay Gruden seems to understand this because he said, “We ideally would like to get that running game going a little bit more—more touches for Robert because he’s been very good as far as running the football.”
That plan of action could happen as early as this week with a favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. Assuming the Redskins can control the game, Kelley should have no problem getting 18-20 carries.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Tevin Coleman, ATL
Before his injury, Coleman was worth a look as a flex option at the very least every week, but in two games since returning to action, he has 20 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown and just two receptions for four yards on four targets. Because the Atlanta Falcons had access to all of their receivers and running backs, Coleman has been a victim of too many mouths to feed with just one football. That might change this week.
With Julio Jones (turf toe) and Mohamed Sanu (groin) banged up, one or both players may have to sit out against the Los Angeles Rams. While that may mean a busier day for Taylor Gabriel, it may also mean an uptick in touches for Coleman, specifically in the passing game.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
If you just look at Dixon’s numbers from last week’s win over the Miami Dolphins, you’d be happy to see that he racked up 56 yards on six carries and added four receptions for 21 yards on four targets. Unfortunately, his upside continues to be limited by Terrance West. West caught all three of his targets for 18 yards and a touchdown, plus he added a rushing touchdown on 10 carries for 50 yards.
So while Dixon had what would have been a solid day as a flex option in a PPR league, the presence of West means Dixon can’t truly break out this season. What we have seen from the rookie has been promising, so hopefully he can finish the season strong and build on that for 2017.
Devontae Booker, DEN
Booker found the end zone last week but was limited to just 35 yards on 18 carries and one reception for two yards. While Kapri Bibbs (ankle) landed on the injured reserve, the Denver Broncos quickly replaced him on the roster with veteran Justin Forsett.
According to Cameron Wolfe of the Denver Post, head coach Gary Kubiak said he “anticipated Forsett splitting with Booker like Bibbs did” and that he expects for Forsett to play Sunday and “contribute fast.”
For a point of reference, Bibbs averaged seven carries over the last three games, but had no receptions. Forsett opened the season with the Baltimore Ravens and later joined the Detroit Lions. He’s familiar with Kubiak’s offense from their time together in Baltimore.
Handcuffs/Players You Can’t Use in Their Current Roles
Derrick Henry, TEN
Before last week’s bye, Henry had eight carries for 60 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Chicago Bears. With much-needed rest for DeMarco Murray achieved, he’s been removed from the injury report with what was initially a foot issue that limited him in early-week practices.
Henry must be owned as Murray’s handcuff, but likely doesn’t have any fantasy value independent of that role for the Titans.
Wendell Smallwood, PHI
Smallwood has blown just about every chance he’s had as the lead back in the absence of Ryan Mathews. Last week, Smallwood ran for 19 yards on eight carries. With Mathews back at practice this week, Smallwood slips back down the depth chart and has no fantasy value.
Duke Johnson, CLE
Coming out of the Week 13 bye, Johnson has 56 carries for 271 yards on the season and 45 receptions for 410 yards on 63 targets. He’s been too inconstant to consider using this late in the season.
Ty Montgomery, GB
Did the Green Bay Packers figure out Montgomery needed to be featured more? His snaps jumped to 50 percent (from 23 percent) while James Starks dipped all the way down to 12 percent (from 76 percent). Christine Michael finished at 19 percent. Montgomery’s six carries for 40 yards and two receptions for 16 yards on three targets was easily the best performance in the backfield, but still not enough to consider using him with confidence.
Paul Perkins, NYG
Perkins hasn’t been in the mix enough to consider using for fantasy and that continued last week with seven carries for 38 yards and no receptions. His snap percentage has fallen between 30 to 40 percent while Rashad Jennings has been between 50 and 70 percent. Even though Perkins has shown promise, it’s not enough to warrant a roster spot for your playoff team.
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Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Michael Thomas, NO
The annoying nature of the New Orleans Saints offense claimed Thomas as a victim in Week 13. After posting nine receptions for 108 yards and two touchdowns in Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams, Thomas was limited to four receptions for 42 yards on five targets in a loss to the Detroit Lions.
As if that wasn’t frustrating enough, a foot injury has caused him to miss practice time this week, so his status is in question for Sunday’s game with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Crowder’s reputation as a must-start wide receiver remained intact after he caught three of eight targets for 42 yards, including a 26-yard-touchdown. That gives him seven touchdowns on the season and four in his last five games.
With Jordan Reed still battling his shoulder injury that could limit him even if he does play, Crowder remains a very important part of the passing attack for the Washington Redskins. It should be a productive day for the entire offense when they take on the lowly Philadelphia Eagles.
Tyreek Hill, KC
The return of Jeremy Maclin (groin) to action after four missed games gave a lot of Hill owners concern for Week 14, but the Kansas City Chiefs stuck with what’s been working, which is an active role for Hill. He caught all six of his targets for 66 yards and a touchdown in addition to a 78-yard punt return for a score. Meanwhile, Maclin had just one reception for 16 yards on three targets. Hill remains a WR3 with upside.
Tyrell Williams, SD
Williams was able to play through his shoulder injury in Week 13. After a slow start, he finished with two receptions for 47 yards on four targets, including a 40-yard touchdown. The output was one of the lowest of the season for Williams, but the touchdown was a much-needed boost for those who stuck with him in their lineup despite the injury. Unfortunately, this is an injury that could linger and limit him down the stretch.
Malcolm Mitchell, NE
Mitchell’s active role in the New England passing game continued in last week’s easy win over the Los Angeles Rams. He turned 10 targets into eight receptions for 82 yards while playing 85 percent of the snaps. You could argue he’s the No. 2 target in the offense behind Julian Edelman, which is a great spot to be in when Tom Brady is throwing you the ball. Mitchell is a high-end WR3 with high-end WR2 ceiling.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Sterling Shepard, NYG
Shepard’s reliance on touchdowns to stay fantasy-relevant continued last week when he posted four receptions for 21 yards and a score on eight targets. He has four touchdowns in his last five games, but he was blanked in Week 13 and doesn’t have more than five catches in a game since Week 2. He hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 3. If you’re using Shepard against the Dallas Cowboys, just know he’ll need a touchdown.
DeVante Parker, MIA
In somewhat of a surprise, Parker played through a back injury in Week 13 to rack up three receptions on four targets for 34 yards and a touchdown. He played 79 percent of the snaps, as he was clearly limited. The back issue has kept him limited at practice this week, so even if he’s able to play against the Arizona Cardinals, he won’t be 100 percent in a tough matchup.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Another week without A.J. Green (hamstring) kept Boyd in the starting lineup for last week’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles. He hauled in four of six targets for 66 yards. In the three games since Green went down early in Week 11, Boyd has double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats in each game. He’s a decent WR3 with a nice matchup in Cleveland against the Browns.
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
After scoring in Weeks 10-11, Sharpe managed just two receptions for 11 yards on three targets in a win over the Chicago Bears in Week 12. He comes out of the bye as a tough player to trust regardless of the matchup, so a brutal one against the Denver Broncos gives you more than enough reason to keep him on the bench for Week 14.
Will Fuller V, HOU
Fuller managed to navigate his way through the snow in Green Bay last week to catch five of six targets for 59 yards. That gives him nine receptions for 119 yards on 12 targets in the last two games. While that’s hardly anything worth getting excited about for fantasy, at least it shows he’s still able to contribute something with the fantasy abyss known as Brock Osweiler at quarterback.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Corey Coleman, CLE
Before the Week 13 bye, Coleman had three catches for 38 yards and a touchdown against the New York Giants. He doesn’t have any fantasy value for the rest of the season, especially with Robert Griffin starting this week against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cameron Meredith, CHI
Snow made life very difficult on Matt Barkley last week, but he still managed to find Meredith three times for 67 yards on four targets. Meredith went from fantasy treasure to fantasy trash in a hurry and won’t be useful with Barkley under center again this week in a matchup with the Detroit Lions.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
For the third time this season and third time in four games, Perriman found the end zone in last week’s blowout of the Miami Dolphins. He had two catches on three targets went for 59 yards, including a 53-yard touchdown. Unfortunately, Perriman hasn’t been consistent enough to even roster, but the flashes he’s shown are positive signs for the future.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
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Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Hunter Henry, SD
Henry caught his only target for 14 yards in last week’s loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has just five receptions for 45 yards on six targets in the last three games, but he has been saved by a pair of touchdowns. With Antonio Gates still in front of Henry, the rookie is nothing more than a deep reach for fantasy and even that is pushing it.
Long-Term Projects/Not Contributing Enough in Current Role
Will Tye, NYG
Tye hasn’t had more than two receptions or 22 yards in any of the last three games, including two receptions for 22 yards on four targets in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tye isn’t involved enough and Eli Manning isn’t playing well enough to give Tye any chance of contributing for fantasy.
Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper is coming off his fourth zero-catch game of the season following last week’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Even with both Julio Jones (turf toe) and Mohamed Sanu (groin) banged up, there’s no way you can consider using Hooper.
Clive Walford, OAK
Through almost two seasons, Walford has made no real impact for fantasy. He caught two of three targets for 21 yards in Week 14 and was outplayed by teammate and fellow tight end Mychal Rivera, who had three receptions for 26 yards on five targets. For as strong as the Oakland Raiders offense can be, Walford is just an afterthought.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Friday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp.
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