Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 9 Futures Report
As fantasy football players, we get frustrated when NFL coaches don’t listen to our pleas.
Whether it’s featuring a young but talented running back, like Jordan Howard of the Chicago Bears, or sticking with a running back after a fumble, we beg coaches to help our fantasy teams, even if we know they don’t care.
Sometimes, logic doesn’t always win out, but other times it does, and in the case of Howard, it won out on Monday night. After the Bears inexplicably gave more snaps to Ka’Deem Carey in Week 7, concern for Howard’s role was huge in the fantasy world, especially with Jeremy Langford on his way back.
Howard ripped off a nice 69-yard run on his second carry of the game, and he never looked back; neither did the Bears en route to a 202-yard performance. Will head coach John Fox actually stay with Howard as his lead back for the rest of the season? He should, but considering his history, it’s not a guarantee.
As fantasy football players, we’ll have to keep rooting for logic, and the logical choice for the Bears is Jordan Howard.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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At this point, the top options are off the waiver wire, which I already covered earlier in the week, but with the news and injury information we’ve received since, here are a few useful players you can still get to help you this weekend. Last week’s group included J.J. Nelson, Rob Kelley, and Josh McCown.
Kenny Britt, LA
Percent Owned: ESPN – 45.6, Yahoo – 45.0
When compiling this list, I often check players coming off a bye to see what their ownership percentage looks like. Because Britt had just three receptions for 43 yards against the Giants in Week 7, he went from one of the hottest pickups, to a disappointing player without a game to play in Week 8.
Why is Britt available in more than half of leagues? His game against the Giants was his worst of the season, but he’s dipped below double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats just twice all year. He’s been the Rams’ best receiver with 33 receptions on 48 targets for 535 yards (16.2 yards per catch) and two touchdowns. And this week, he gets to face a Panthers defense that’s been the worst against WRs over the last four weeks and all season.
Sammie Coates, PIT
Percent Owned: ESPN – 41.9, Yahoo – 41.0
Much like Britt, Coates is coming off a bye and not one, but two bad games. He played through a broken finger and lacerated hand in Week 6 (0 receptions) and had just one catch for four yards on his only target when Landry Jones started for Ben Roethlisberger in Week 7. Circumstances are much different heading into Week 9.
According to Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Coates is over his hand injuries and will simply wear a glove when he takes the field against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. Bouchette also reports that Roethlisberger is on track to start, and offensive coordinator Todd Haley said he looked good in drills at Thursday’s practice. The immediate upgrade in QB is another factor working in Coates’ favor.
Finally, Coates and the Steelers return with Big Ben in a great matchup against the rival Ravens. Over the last four weeks, Baltimore’s allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers (30.23 pts). Remember, less than a month ago, Coates posted six receptions for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets against the New York Jets. We know what he’s capable of doing, and with everything back in his favor, he could return to dominance.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Percent Owned: ESPN – 10.3, Yahoo – 12.0
Grabbing Dixon after the bye with the hope he has bigger contributions starting this week against the Steelers is more about speculation for the second half of the season than connecting on a deep sleeper for Week 9. Getting out ahead on Dixon before he pops back on the fantasy radar is the key to this move.
Right before the team started their Week 8 bye, head coach John Harbaugh said he wanted to see more of Dixon, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN. With Dixon likely at 100 percent after battling through a knee sprain for the early part of the season, he should be ready for a bigger role—if the Ravens want to give him more opportunities. He has just six carries and three receptions in three games. It’s time to see more of Dixon and less of Terrance West.
Kendall Wright, TEN
Percent Owned: ESPN – 11.4, Yahoo – 14.0
I’ve been hesitant to endorse Wright because while his production has been good in recent weeks, his snap totals remain low. In Week 6, he posted eight receptions for 133 yards and a touchdown on 35 percent of the snaps. That rose to 50 percent in Week 7 but resulted in just two receptions for 12 yards on four targets. He went back down to 39 percent in Week 8, yet he still managed four receptions for 84 yards and another score.
So does Wright have a chance to be a consistent contributor? Head coach Mike Mularkey put a damper on those plans when he called Wright, "a very good slot receiver, third-down receiver" and noted that Wright would remain part of a rotation, according to Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.
Can the Titans really keep Wright off the field that much when their best options are Tajae Sharpe and Rishard Matthews? We’ll find out on Sunday against the San Diego Chargers.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Carson Wentz, PHI
Wentz’s hot start to the season seems like a distant memory after another disappointing performance and a loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8. The disappointing performance had more to do with Wentz as a fantasy player since he still managed to complete 32 of 43 pass attempts (74.4 percent) for 202 yards and a touchdown.
Since the team’s Week 4 bye, Wentz hasn’t thrown for more than 238 yards in any game and has just four touchdowns to three interceptions in the last four weeks. And while he’s capable of picking up some yards with his legs, he’s carried just 19 times for 40 yards. This week’s matchup against the New York Giants should only be a concern because it’s another division game and the Giants are coming off a bye. Wentz isn’t a legit fantasy option until further notice.
Dak Prescott, DAL
The Dallas Cowboys escaped with an overtime win against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 8, but Prescott had his worst game of the season. From a decision-making standpoint, he struggled, yet his amnesia and ability to move forward should be commended. Prescott wound up 19-of-39 passing for 287 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
After a bad outing against the Eagles, Prescott has a chance to get back on the right track when he faces the Cleveland Browns. The Browns allowed the second-most fantasy points to QBs over the last month (22.96 pts). While it should be another busy game for Ezekiel Elliott, when Dak does take to the air, the QB should have success.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
The Denver Broncos probably aren’t any closer to making a quarterback change, but they seem to be winning despite the shaky play of Siemian. That continued last week when they slid past the Chargers with a 27-19 victory. Siemian completed just 20 of his 38 attempts for 276 yards and an interception.
With the Broncos relying on rookie Devontae Booker to carry their rushing attack, Siemian needs to give them a little more in their passing game. He doesn’t have to be a 300-yard passer, but he does have to take care of the ball and complete more than 60 percent of his passes, which hasn’t happened since Week 5.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
None of note.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff remains the backup to Case Keenum with no clear plans to change that depth chart. Our own Jason Cole reported that because Goff’s development is moving slowly, he’s a long way from being ready.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
The most you’ll see of Garoppolo is mop-up duty since we know Tom Brady isn’t coming off the field unless the game is out of reach in the fourth quarter. Garoppolo hasn’t thrown a pass since Week 5.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jay Ajayi, MIA
When Ajayi ran for 214 yards in Week 7, he killed any talk of the 200-yard performance in Week 6 being just a fluke. Over his last two games before the bye, Ajayi has 53 carries for 418 yards and three touchdowns.
Ajayi is the unquestioned starter in Miami, but after the retirement of Arian Foster, it leaves the Dolphins with Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake behind Ajayi, although neither is a threat to steal significant touches. He'll get a good test from the New York Jets on Sunday.
Devontae Booker, DEN
Booker’s first crack at handling the starting job for the Denver Broncos was good but far from great. It didn’t help that he played through a shoulder injury suffered when Trevor Siemian threw him a hospital pass early in the game. Booker turned 19 carries into 54 yards and a touchdown and added five receptions on six targets for 30 yards while playing 83 percent of the snaps. He lost a fumble but wasn’t really punished because he’s clearly the team’s best back.
The shoulder injury has been bad enough to limit him at practice this week, although he shouldn’t have a problem playing on Sunday in a huge matchup with the Oakland Raiders.
Rob Kelley, WAS
Kelley was primed for a big role with or without Matt Jones in Week 8, but with Jones sitting out due to a knee injury, Kelley got a heavy workload. He carried 21 times for 87 yards and a touchdown while playing a season-high 47 percent of the snaps. Chris Thompson played 53 percent of the snaps with seven carries for 14 yards and five receptions for 27 yards.
If Jones is healthy enough to play after the Week 9 bye, he’d likely back up Kelley—at least until Kelley stumbles. This could still turn into an ugly, three-headed backfield at some point, but for now, Kelley looks like the leader.
Jordan Howard, CHI
As I discussed in the intro, the concern for Howard’s fantasy value was very real heading into Week 8, but after a convincing victory for the Chicago Bears over the Minnesota Vikings, it was abundantly clear who should lead the way in Chicago’s backfield.
Howard had his best game of the year with season-highs across the board. He carried 26 times for 153 yards and a touchdown and added four receptions for 49 yards on four targets while playing 82 percent of the snaps. That put him back in front of Ka’Deem Carey, who played just 10 percent of the snaps and the returning Jeremy Langford saw only eight percent.
After Carey outsnapped Howard in Week 7 and Langford was ready for Week 8, no one really knew how Howard would be used or if he’d have any chance of taking back the lead role. According to Jeff Dickerson of ESPN, Howard said, "I definitely didn’t think they were going to lean on me that often."
Howard now has three games with at least 111 rushing yards and averages 5.1 yards per carry on the season. If the Bears go away from him, not only will they not care about your fantasy team, but they won’t care about the future of their franchise.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
Another week, another game of fantasy irrelevance for Washington and Richard. Week 8 saw Washington run five times for 32 yards and play 30 percent of the snaps. Richard played 18 percent of the snaps, caught two targets for three yards and racked up 34 yards on five carries.
While Latavius Murray continues to lead the way, this backfield doesn’t matter much for fantasy, especially as it relates to the values of Washington and Richard.
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
After the New York Jets held Terrance West to just 10 yards on eight carries in Week 7, the Ravens should be taking a longer look at Dixon when they come out of their bye against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. In three games, Dixon has just six carries for 10 yards and three receptions on four targets for six yards.
Hopefully, the Ravens devised a plan to work Dixon in more, although he needs to prove he can handle extra snaps by improving his pass protection. This is a situation to monitor for the next few weeks, especially if you stuck by stashing Dixon away weeks ago.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Paul Perkins, NYG
Will this be the week we see Perkins play a significant role? According to Jordan Raanan of ESPN, Perkins’ role will increase, but not as much as people think and not right away. An increased role wouldn’t mean much unless it’s a significant jump over the 26 percent of snaps or the four carries he got in Week 7.
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington was healthy enough to return in Week 8, but he was a healthy scratch in what would have been his first game back from ankle and foot issues. Other than Theo Riddick, the Lions don’t have a fantasy-relevant RB on their roster.
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
The return of Jonathan Stewart has relegated Artis-Payne to a couple of healthy scratches in the team’s last two games. He has no fantasy value unless Stewart goes down again.
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Even with Arian Foster gone from Miami’s backfield, it doesn’t mean much since Drake is still behind Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams.
Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Ty Montgomery, GB
Montgomery was limited at practice last week with an illness, so no one thought much of his questionable designation heading into last weekend. He surprised everyone as a scratch, but we’d learn the illness was a little more serious, as it was a kidney issue connected to the sickle cell trait. He’s been back to limited practice all week and appears to be on track to return on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee-Journal-Sentinel, Montgomery will "probably" be the lead back ahead of Don Jackson and possibly James Starks (knee) if he returns this week.
On the subject of Montgomery’s position designation, Packers running backs coach Ben Sirmans told Rob Demovsky of ESPN, "He (Montgomery) pretty much spends most of his time with me in my meeting room." If only league-hosting sites went with that evidence to give him RB eligibility instead of the useless and mostly cosmetic team depth charts.
Michael Thomas, NO
It’s gotten to the point where Thomas posting six receptions for 63 yards is a disappointing fantasy effort. That’s exactly what he did in Week 8 against the Seattle Seahawks. The reality is that those numbers are solid against a good team like the Seahawks and continued Thomas’ strong rookie season.
With seven games in the books, Thomas trails Brandin Cooks 56-55 in targets and 530-500 in yards, but Thomas leads the team with 42 receptions to Cooks’ 36 receptions. It’s probably more important to note that Thomas has 11 more targets, eight more receptions and 61 more yards than Willie Snead. He’s also outsnapped Snead in every game dating back to Week 4.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
If you stuck with Crowder in Week 8, he paid off in a big way. Despite the return of Jordan Reed, Crowder remained on the field for at least 70 percent of the snaps for the third straight game. He caught nine of 13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. Reed was also great with nine receptions for 99 yards and a score on 13 targets.
Crowder goes into the bye with back-to-back 100-yard efforts and the clear trust of the coaching staff as a regular part of their offense. At worst, he’s a WR3 for fantasy, but he still has plenty of upside to be a very good WR2.
Tyrell Williams, SD
While Williams has been a pleasant surprise for the Chargers this season and a somewhat-reliable fantasy option, if you stayed away from him against the Denver Broncos last week, you made the right call. He had just one catch for four yards on six targets.
A knee injury kept him out of practice early this week, but he’s back to limited work and has a chance to play in Week 9 against the Titans. If healthy, Williams is a WR3 with WR2 upside, especially for a team that really doesn’t have a top option, which is why we’ve seen Williams do so well.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Cameron Meredith, CHI
In Week 8, we learned that the concerns for Jordan Howard were overblown, but the concerns for Meredith were justified. He still played his normal snaps (87 percent), but he wound up with just one catch for 24 yards on two targets. He now has a single catch in each of the last two games.
Howard was able to bounce back in a big way after a pair of down games, but it may not be so easy for Meredith since he doesn’t have the same connection that Alshon Jeffery has with Jay Cutler. The Bears come out of the bye with a favorable schedule starting with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so we’ll find out real quick if Meredith has any fantasy value.
Sammie Coates, PIT
As I detailed in the late-week waiver wire, Coates has been quiet over the last two games thanks to troubles with his injured hand and Landry Jones at quarterback. With Ben Roethlisberger (knee) on track to start in Week 9 against the Baltimore Ravens and Coates’ injuries behind him, this could be the week he jumps back onto the fantasy radar.
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman has been granted full clearance to return to game action this week since going down with a broken hand in Week 2. He posted five receptions for 104 yards and two touchdowns in that game, which came with Josh McCown at quarterback. The Browns haven’t decided if McCown or Cody Kessler will start this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Coleman is a WR3, but he would be better with McCown under center.
Will Fuller, HOU
Fuller managed just one reception for 23 yards on four targets against the Lions and had to leave the game with a knee injury. He was already dealing with a lingering hamstring injury, so the knee problem adds to what’s already been a frustrating season. Hopefully, he can get healthier over the bye week, although it won’t change the fact that he plays with one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league in Brock Osweiler.
DeVante Parker, MIA
Parker’s been a poor fantasy investment this season. Through six active games, Parker has 23 receptions for 295 yards and a touchdown on 36 targets. He’s second on the team in all of those categories to Jarvis Landry, although neither player has done much for fantasy over the last month. That could change with a great matchup against the New York Jets on Sunday.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Breshad Perriman, BAL
The Ravens want more out of Perriman, but he has just 14 receptions for 183 yards on 34 targets on the year. The inconsistency of Perriman makes it hard for the team to trust him and as a result, makes it hard for fantasy teams to justify rostering him.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Since starting his career with seven receptions for 76 yards on 11 targets, Sharpe hasn’t had a game with more than four receptions or 60 yards. That includes the one-catch, 11-yard performance he had against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Other than tight end Delanie Walker, the Titans don’t really have a go-to receiver, although Kendall Wright has two strong games in the last three weeks. He’s just pushing Sharpe further down the pecking order.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
With Tyler Eifert fully integrated in the offense once again, there’s not a lot to go around in the receiving corps. Last week, A.J. Green and Eifert combined for 30 targets, 18 receptions, 223 yards and a touchdown. Boyd caught five of his seven targets for 38 yards. He has just two games with double-digit fantasy points and can’t be trusted to be in your lineup.
Devin Funchess, CAR
Funchess struggled against the Arizona Cardinals last week with three receptions for 38 yards on four targets, but that wasn’t much of a surprise. He doesn’t have a significant role in Carolina’s offense, so he has no fantasy value.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Agholor’s been disappointing all season long and now could be falling behind Dorial Green-Beckham in the passing game. While Agholor still outsnapped DGB 91-64 percent, it was Green-Beckham who turned nine targets into five receptions for 55 yards while Agholor had three catches for 25 yards on four targets. He doesn’t have a game with more than four receptions or 57 yards and both of those numbers happened way back in Week 1.
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell hasn’t recorded a target in the first eight weeks. He’s buried on the depth chart and means nothing for fantasy.
Kevin White, CHI
White is eligible to return from the injured reserve in Week 13, but he isn’t worth stashing, and the Bears could be way out of the playoff picture by that point. It’s likely another lost season for White.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
Hunter Henry, SD
The frustration of the tight end position now extends to Henry. After a month of strong performances with and without Antonio Gates, the last two weeks have been huge disappointments. Henry suffered a concussion in Week 7, but he was cleared to play in Week 8 against the Denver Broncos. Unfortunately, he managed just two receptions on four targets for 14 yards.
Gates outperformed him for the second straight week with four receptions for 33 yards and a score on nine targets. He outsnapped Henry 68-56 percent, which was the first time that happened since Week 1. Perhaps the knee issue that’s kept him out of practice this week has something to do with that snap count.
You shouldn’t give up on Henry, but with this injury, he’s not a lock to be in your lineup—although you can still consider him if he’s active against the Titans since the matchup is fantastic.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Austin Hooper, ATL
The Atlanta Falcons ruled veteran tight end Jacob Tamme out early this week because of a shoulder injury, so Hooper got the start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.
He took advantage of such a great opportunity by snagging three of six targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. The rookie has flashed at times this season, but this was his first chance at a big role, and he did well for himself. Hopefully, there’s more of this to come, but it will depend on Tamme’s status.
Jesse James, PIT
In the Week 7 matchup with the Patriots before the bye, James caught both of his targets for 18 yards and couldn’t get anything going with Landry Jones. The absence of Ben Roethlisberger certainly hurt James’ value, but that won’t last much longer since Big Ben is expected back this week.
James remains atop the team’s depth chart for now because Ladarius Green still isn’t ready to play due to ongoing issues stemming from his ankle injury. According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, Green wants to play this week, but his speed isn’t all the way back and he’s "hesitant."
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Clive Walford, OAK
Any attempts to get Walford more involved in the offense aren’t working. The Oakland Raiders needed overtime to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Derek Carr threw 59 passes, yet Walford managed to catch just three of four targets for 31 yards. If Walford can’t get involved in Carr’s busiest game of the season, he’s totally useless.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Friday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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