Week 1 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Matchups to Exploit and Avoid in Season Openers
Starting the season off on the right foot is more important than ever in the world of fantasy football.
With most every player healthy (not counting injured or suspended stars such as Jamaal Charles and Tom Brady respectively), it is critical for owners to pick up wins before the injury dominoes start to fall and the waiver wire becomes a bigger factor.
The biggest gaffe an owner could make to dash their chances at an early win is misplaying the matchups. Bigger names deserve starts in bad situations, but sometimes reason has to override the name.
Below we compare some of Week 1's top names and highlight matchups to exploit and avoid.
QB
| Matt Ryan (vs. TB) vs. Aaron Rodgers (at JAC) | Aaron Rodgers |
| Russell Wilson (vs. MIA) vs. Blake Bortles (vs. GB) | Blake Bortles |
| Carson Palmer (vs. NE) vs. Drew Brees (vs. OAK) | Drew Brees |
| Kirk Cousins (vs. PIT) vs. Eli Manning (at DAL) | Eli Manning |
| Philip Rivers (at KC) vs. Derek Carr (at NO) | Derek Carr |
| Tyrod Taylor (at BAL) vs. Andy Dalton (at NYJ) | Tyrod Taylor |
Matchup to Exploit: Eli Manning, NYG (at DAL)
Next to the Oakland Raiders' Derek Carr against the New Orleans Saints, Week 1 is all about Eli Manning of the New York Giants.
Taken in 94.7 percent of leagues, Manning isn't the first guy owners think of in terms of quarterback dominance. For shame, as the younger Manning rode a weapon set led by Odell Beckham Jr. to 12 double-digit performances last year.
Manning gets the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, nothing short of good news considering the struggling unit allowed the second-most points to quarterbacks on average last year. To be fair, Manning didn't manage a touchdown pass against Dallas in 2015 while his ground game carried the load, but it doesn't change the fact he sits in a top-tier matchup.
Matchup to Avoid: Philip Rivers, SD (at KC)
Interestingly enough, Philip Rivers has also fallen out of favor a bit in recent years despite also putting up double digits in 12 games last term.
One problem: Rivers led the league in pass attempts to get there and recorded three games without a touchdown.
Two of those came against the Kansas City Chiefs.
That's the team Rivers' San Diego Chargers line up against in Week 1, a nightmare matchup against a unit that not only owned Rivers last year but also allowed the fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks on average.
RB
| Devonta Freeman (vs. TB) vs. Doug Martin (at ATL) | Devonta Freeman |
| Adrian Peterson (at TEN) vs. Todd Gurley (at SF) | Todd Gurley |
| Lamar Miller (vs. CHI) vs. David Johnson (vs. NE) | Lamar Miller |
| LeSean McCoy (at BAL) vs. Jeremy Langford (vs. HOU) | LeSean McCoy |
| Eddie Lacy (at JAC) vs. Jeremy Hill (vs. NYJ) | Eddie Lacy |
Matchup to Exploit: Christine Michael, SEA (vs. MIA)
Owners should go for broke with Christine Michael of the Seattle Seahawks.
Michael popped in the preseason, to say the least, leading all rushers through the first three weeks. He impressed so much the team went ahead and labeled him as the starter, as the Seattle Times' Bob Condotta captured:
With Thomas Rawls still working his way back from injury, it will be the Michael show against the Miami Dolphins, the team that happened to give up the most points to running backs on average last year despite the presence of Ndamukong Suh.
Miami coughed up 20 or more points to opposing backfields in 10 games last year, giving Michael strong odds to put on a show.
Matchup to Avoid: Matt Jones, WAS (vs. PIT)
Forget it.
Washington's Matt Jones looks like a strong breakout candidate this year after his pair of 24-point outings last season and the team not doing much to challenge him on the depth chart.
Week 1, though? Jones enters a dance with the Pittsburgh Steelers off a shoulder injury that dampened his preseason, and he figures to lose carries to the impressive Rob Kelley.
Pittsburgh wasn't known for its overall defense last year, but the team did stand tall against backs, allowing the second-fewest points on average to the position. Only two backfields totaled 20 or more points against the unit, topping off what looks like a miserable matchup for Jones.
WR
| Antonio Brown (at WAS) vs. Brandon Marshall (vs. CIN) | Antonio Brown |
| Julio Jones (vs. TB) vs. Allen Robinson (vs. GB) | Allen Robinson |
| Odell Beckham Jr. (at DAL) vs. DeAndre Hopkins (vs. CHI) | DeAndre Hopkins |
| A.J. Green (at NYJ) vs. Sammy Watkins (at BAL) | Sammy Watkins |
| Tavon Austin (vs. SF) vs. Brandin Cooks (vs. OAK) | Brandin Cooks |
Matchup to Exploit: Marvin Jones, DET (at IND)
One Jones in the perfect matchup to exploit? Marvin, one of the newest members of the Detroit Lions.
It was all doom and gloom around the Lions this offseason because Calvin Johnson decided to hang up his cleats, but that allowed the Lions to move toward a more spread-it-around approach after adding Jones.
Jones, remember, spent the past few years with the Cincinnati Bengals and stood behind A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, if not a pair of running backs, in the pecking order.
Not in Detroit. Jones might be the new No. 1 and gets to run away from an Indianapolis Colts defense that last year allowed the sixth-most points to wideouts on average and will be without star corner Vontae Davis.
Matchup to Avoid: Julian Edelman, NE (at ARI)
It's not advisable to sit Julian Edelman every week Brady serves his four-game suspension, but it certainly is against the Arizona Cardinals.
Not that it will surprise many, but a secondary boasting Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu and Deone Bucannon coughed up just the sixth-fewest points to wideouts on average last season.
Edelman, good as he is, won't see many targets come his way with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. The inexperienced quarterback will look to big targets and runners split out as receivers.
Unless owners play in a points-per-reception (PPR) league, Edelman is a star name to sit for Week 1.
TE
| Rob Gronkowski (at ARI) vs. Antonio Gates (at KC) | Rob Gronkowski |
| Jordan Reed (vs. PIT) vs. Delanie Walker (vs. MIN) | Jordan Reed |
| Travis Kelce (vs. SD) vs. Jason Witten (vs. NYG) | Jason Witten |
| Julius Thomas (vs. GB) vs. Kyle Rudolph (at TEN) | Julius Thomas |
| Martellus Bennett (at ARI) vs. Zach Miller (at HOU) | Zach Miller |
Matchup to Exploit: Jason Witten, DAL (vs. NYG)
On the flip side of the Giants-Cowboys clash resides one of the best tight end matchups possible.
Jason Witten against the Giants is as easy as it gets. The veteran has seven touchdowns against the Giants over his last eight encounters with the team. New York predictably allowed the second-most points to the position on average last year.
Witten was a big part of that damage, scoring twice and totaling 25 points over two games. With rookie Dak Prescott under center, Witten might see more targets than usual too.
Matchup to Avoid: Antonio Gates, SD (at KC)
Let's double down on members of the Chargers here because tight end Antonio Gates is such a big name.
Gates, owned in 90.6 percent of leagues despite just two double-digit outings last year, scored zero and seven points with no touchdowns against the Chiefs over two games.
A guy by the name of Eric Berry takes most of the blame, as the safety is one of the best in the league at keeping pace with bigger tight ends—his unit allowed the fewest points to tight ends on average last year.
It's hard to imagine Gates won't have huge games this season—but not right out of the gates thanks to this matchup.
All scoring info and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats.
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