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GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 25: Marvin Jones #11 of the Detroit Lions catches a touchdown pass against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on September 25, 2016 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Lions 34-27. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
GREEN BAY, WI - SEPTEMBER 25: Marvin Jones #11 of the Detroit Lions catches a touchdown pass against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on September 25, 2016 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Lions 34-27. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Fantasy Football Week 4: Top 100 Players' Updated Trade Value and Advice

Timothy RappSep 29, 2016

Some sanity returned in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Todd Gurley finally had a strong game. Jimmy Graham once again resembled the dominating force from his New Orleans days. Allen Robinson reached the end zone for the first (and second) time this season.

Some of the expectations from before the season are starting to take shape. Other players, however, continue to defy those expectations.

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So how do you value those players? And how should you value players who are underachieving?

Let's break down the trade chart. 

11Antonio BrownWRPittsburgh Steelers11
21David JohnsonRBArizona Cardinals11
32Le'Veon BellRBPittsburgh Steelers11
43Todd GurleyRBLos Angeles Rams11
54DeMarco MurrayRBTennessee Titans11
65Ezekiel ElliottRBDallas Cowboys11
76Matt ForteRBNew York Jets11
82Julio JonesWRAtlanta Falcons10
93A.J. GreenWRCincinnati Bengals10
104Odell Beckham Jr.WRNew York Giants10
111Rob GronkowskiTENew England Patriots10
127C.J. AndersonRBDenver Broncos9
138Lamar MillerRBHouston Texans9
149Mark IngramRBNew Orleans Saints9
1510LeSean McCoyRBBuffalo Bills9
165Mike EvansWRTampa Bay Buccaneers8
176DeAndre HopkinsWRHouston Texans8
187Jordy NelsonWRGreen Bay Packers8
198Allen RobinsonWRJacksonville Jaguars8
209Kelvin BenjaminWRCarolina Panthers8
2110Alshon JefferyWRChicago Bears8
2211LeGarrette BlountRBNew England Patriots7
2312Carlos HydeRBSan Francisco 49ers7
2413Melvin GordonRBSan Diego Chargers7
2511Doug BaldwinWRSeattle Seahawks7
2612Stefon DiggsWRMinnesota Vikings7
2713Marvin JonesWRDetroit Lions7
281Cam NewtonQBCarolina Panthers7
292Aaron RodgersQBGreen Bay Packers7
3014Brandon MarshallWRNew York Jets7
3115Dez BryantWRDallas Cowboys7
3216Brandin CooksWRNew Orleans Saints7
3314Latavius MurrayRBOakland Raiders6
3415Tevin ColemanRBAtlanta Falcons6
3516Isaiah CrowellRBCleveland Browns6
362Greg OlsenTECarolina Panthers6
373Andrew LuckQBIndianapolis Colts6
3817Larry FitzgeraldWRArizona Cardinals6
3918Eric DeckerWRNew York Jets6
4019Demaryius ThomasWRDenver Broncos6
4120Jordan MatthewsWRPhiladelphia Eagles6
4221Mike WallaceWRBaltimore Ravens6
4322Julian EdelmanWRNew England Patriots6
4423Jarvis LandryWRMiami Dolphins6
4524Michael CrabtreeWROakland Raiders6
463Jordan ReedTEWashington5
474Travis KelceTEKansas City Chiefs5
485Jimmy GrahamTESeattle Seahawks5
4917Jeremy HillRBCincinnati Bengals5
5018Devonta FreemanRBAtlanta Falcons5
5119Frank GoreRBIndianapolis Colts5
5220Eddie LacyRBGreen Bay Packers5
5321Doug MartinRBTampa Bay Buccaneers5
5422Jamaal CharlesRBKansas City Chiefs5
554Russell WilsonQBSeattle Seahawks5
565Drew BreesQBNew Orleans Saints5
576Ben RoethlisbergerQBPittsburgh Steelers5
587Matt RyanQBAtlanta Falcons5
5925T.Y. HiltonWRIndianapolis Colts4
6026DeSean JacksonWRWashington4
6127Emmanuel SandersWRDenver Broncos4
6228Sammy WatkinsWRBuffalo Bills4
6329Amari CooperWROakland Raiders4
6430Randall CobbWRGreen Bay Packers4
6531Jeremy MaclinWRKansas City Chiefs4
6632Allen HurnsWRJacksonville Jaguars4
6733Josh GordonWRCleveland Browns4
688Tom BradyQBNew England Patriots4
6923Christine MichaelRBSeattle Seahawks4
7024Jonathan StewartRBCarolina Panthers4
7125Ryan MathewsRBPhiladelphia Eagles4
726Julius ThomasTEJacksonville Jaguars3
737Eric EbronTEDetroit Lions3
748Zach ErtzTEPhiladelphia Eagles3
759Delanie WalkerTETennessee Titans3
7626Spencer WareRBKansas City Chiefs3
7727Matt JonesRBWashington3
7828Giovani BernardRBCincinnati Bengals3
7929Arian FosterRBMiami Dolphins3
8030Theo RiddickRBDetroit Lions3
8134Willie SneadWRNew Orleans Saints3
8235Travis BenjaminWRSan Diego Chargers3
8336Will FullerWRHouston Texans3
8437Donte MoncriefWRIndianapolis Colts3
8538Tavon AustinWRLos Angeles Rams3
8639Victor CruzWR New York Giants3
8710Coby FleenerTENew Orleans Saints2
889Carson PalmerQBArizona Cardinals2
8910Derek CarrQBOakland Raiders2
9011Matt StaffordQBDetroit Lions2
9140Sterling ShepardWRNew York Giants2
9241Terrelle PryorWRCleveland Browns2
9342Tyrell WilliamsWRSan Diego Chargers2
9443DeVante ParkerWRMiami Dolphins2
9531Rashad JenningsRBNew York Giants2
9632T.J. YeldonRBJacksonville Jaguars2
9733Thomas RawlsRBSeattle Seahawks2
9834DeAngelo WilliamsRBPittsburgh Steelers2
9912Ryan TannehillQBMiami Dolphins2
1001Minnesota VikingsD/STMinnesota Vikings2

As always, I'll use a few examples of players to give you a better idea of how I approach trades and ascribe value.

It's getting pretty hard to ignore the season Marvin Jones is having in Detroit. After three weeks, he's accumulated 18 receptions for 408 yards and two touchdowns on 29 targets. In standard-scoring leagues, he's the top wide receiver with 51 fantasy points. 

But just how sustainable is his production? And is he a player worth selling high on?

Well, the fact that just 23 percent of his fantasy value thus far has come from his two touchdowns is a positive sign. Touchdowns can be fickle, while receptions, yards and targets are a better indicator of a player's role on a team and his sustainable value throughout the season. 

To contrast, Jordy Nelson—who leads all wide receivers with four touchdowns after three weeks—has received 54 percent of his fantasy value from touchdowns. Granted, Nelson has a history of being an excellent fantasy producer, has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball and an offense geared around the passing game. So his production, despite its high reliance on touchdowns early in the season, is sustainable based on his past resume.

Still, there are reasons to believe Jones will continue to produce. For one, Matt Stafford has attempted 120 passes in the first three weeks, sixth-most in the NFL. More importantly, he's turned all of those attempts into 985 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Jones is also dangerous on deep balls and never expects to lose against a cornerback down the field, as he told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:

"

I’m going to win 100% of the time. As a receiver, you have to have that mentality. If you don’t have that mentality, then you shouldn’t be playing receiver. But I think, when I’m on the sideline or wherever, whenever the ball‘s up that I get the ball. Matt (Stafford) does a good job of throwing it in different spots for me to go get it.

"

Plus, Jones is the clear No. 1 option in the passing game. Golden Tate has been quiet, Anquan Boldin has been solid but is limited at this point in his career and Eric Ebron is more of a threat in the red zone and over the middle. He won't steal touches from Jones.

In other words, Jones is either a player you should try to trade for now, before his value blows up, or a player whom you should absolutely be holding onto.

If you are looking to buy Jones on the cheap, here's an idea of some fairly even trades:

  • Jordan Reed and Derek Carr
  • Frank Gore and Coby Fleener
  • Christine Michael and Julius Thomas
  • Ryan Mathews and Delanie Walker

As you can see, you shouldn't be giving up a king's ransom for Jones just yet. Savvier owners will want more for him. Owners who don't trust his early production might be inclined to take less. His value is still a bit difficult to ascertain, but you should be treating him like a WR2 with WR1 potential at this point.

Matt Camp of Bleacher Report has a few more players to keep an eye on:

What about a player you might be able to get far below his actual value?

Look no further than Julian Edelman. His numbers have suffered with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett under center (18 catches for 180 yards), but he thrived last season with Tom Brady calling the shots. Brady returns in Week 5, meaning this is probably the last week or so that you might be able to pry Edelman away from impatient fantasy owners.

Remember, in nine weeks last season before injury struck, Edelman caught 61 passes for 692 yards, seven scores and totaled 107 fantasy points. That's 11.8 fantasy points per week.

Yes, there are always those injury concerns with Edelman. But his numbers should dramatically improve come Week 5. And right now, you might just be able to get him for a bargain.

Here are some deals you might try:

  • Jonathan Stewart and Matt Stafford
  • Emmanuel Sanders and the Minnesota D/ST
  • Eric Ebron and Matt Jones
  • Zach Ertz and Theo Riddick

These aren't cheap deals given Edelman's current production, but they are based on the belief that with Brady under center, he'll be a high-end WR2 over his last 12 games. Obviously, if you can get him for less, pull the trigger.

Either way, he's certainly a player worth targeting at his "buy-low" status. 

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter. All points-against and fantasy stats via ESPN.com.

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