Fantasy Football: Who Will Be 2016's Best Breakout Performers?

Fantasy football investors want to know which players are due for breakout seasons. In the context of improved performance, we can define a breakout as "relating to a sudden or smashing success especially in comparison to previous efforts," according to Merriam-Webster.

In the early rounds, we are often seeking a combination of cost certainty (players who perform at a high level commensurate to their draft cost) and ceiling (we want these high-end investments to provide peak seasons). Into the middle and later rounds, we seek profitable players who might appear undervalued by the market. So just how do we source such commodities for 2016?

By leveraging a blend of precedent—the statistics, roles and athletic profiles we can reference—and opportunity—the potential market share and projected upside—we try to identify which players are ideal breakout candidates for 2016.

The Houston Texans' Lamar Miller is one player we find positioned for a career season. The convergence of age, experience and opportunity could turn into the best fantasy output of all running backs this season. Simply put, the ingredients for a breakout are ideal with Miller. 

Join us as we canvass the 2016 marketplace for players we feel are primed to provide profitable performances for investors this season. As always, please share your breakout players in the comments.

Breakout Brewing: Carlos Hyde Can Top 300 Touches

Elsa/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers rank 27th in rushes per game by their running backs with just 20.8 per game since 2014. Former head coach (and current 49ers coach) Chip Kelly's Philadelphia Eagles ranked third in the league over this span with 25.8 rushes per game to tailbacks. Kelly's offenses in Philly produced 24 percent more offensive snaps per game than the 49ers over the last two years.

The 49ers allocated just 5.6 passing targets per game to their backfield over the past two seasons, 26th in the league over this sample. Meanwhile, the Eagles have targeted backs 8.7 times per game since 2014, third in the NFL over this span.

Even with the 49ers' uniquely ugly quarterback situation, we find strong evidence to suggest Carlos Hyde is due for a workhorse assignment in 2016. The pitch for Hyde as a breakout running back candidate isn't solely tied to Kelly's snap- and run-heavy scheme, however, as we can also focus on just how talented he is as a rusher.

Hyde was second in Pro Football Focus' signature Elusive Rating statistic among NFL backs last season. The formula simply finds the rate of forced missed tackles—as in defenders juked and tackles broken—per offensive touch. Hyde's comparable peers in this metric were backs like Marshawn Lynch, Le'Veon Bell and Doug Martin.

Hyde's 2015 season started off with a brilliant debut against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, but an eventual season-ending injury and an inept offense felled his fantasy prospects after that initial outing. 

Negative game script—as in the 49ers proving prone to trailing opponents this season—is a legitimate concern for Hyde's upside. That said, Kelly still force-fed his backfield with touches during an ugly 2015 in South Philly, offering some promise for Hyde to sustain a meaningful workload even in the face of team deficits.

If Hyde can earn a sizable uptick in targets (he was targeted twice in the team's first preseason outing in just a handful of snaps) in addition to over 250 attempts (ESPN projects him for 257 carries), netting a breakout campaign worthy of borderline RB1 production appears realistic. As of press time, Hyde is going 17th on average at the position, per Fantasy Football Calculator, suggesting real profit potential is present.

Target and positional usage data for article sourced from ESPN database.

Coby Fleener Has a High Fantasy Ceiling with the Saints

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The New Orleans Saints were clearly looking to upgrade their hair game this offseason, as they signed the flowing locks of Coby Fleener to a rich pact in free agency.

Legendary signal-caller Drew Brees is on board with the investment, telling Christopher Dabe of the Times-Picayune:

"

We watched a lot of film on him last year, just because we played in the AFC South. It felt like every time we turned on the film to watch an opponent that we were about to play, I'm watching Colts film or Fleener film. It was like, 'Man, this guy has an uncanny ability to separate.' He's always open. There's always a place to throw the ball where he can get it.

"

Even with the departure of red-zone maven Jimmy Graham last season, the Saints still threw 149 targets at their tight ends, good for fifth in the NFL in 2015. The Saints targeted tight ends 29 times in the red zone last season, the most in the NFL. This after targeting the position second only to the Patriots from 2011 to 2014.

The key recipient of this attention in 2015 was Ben Watson, who in his 12th professional season posted career bests in receptions and yardage en route to finishing seventh at the position in fantasy points in points-per-reception leagues using ESPN's scoring key. Even this pedestrian journeyman was afforded a top-10 fantasy campaign in this fantasy-friendly scheme.

Fleener is being drafted as the fifth overall tight end, per Fantasy Football Calculator, but this is coming in the seventh round on average.

There is a valid argument for Fleener's ceiling as the second overall fantasy tight end behind the peerless Rob Gronkowski. This isn't to say we should project such a result, but rather recognize how the amazing passing volume in New Orleans and the Saints' particular affinity for leveraging meaningful work to tight ends serve as valuable breakout ingredients.

Red-zone and tight end target data sourced from ESPN database.

Duke Johnson Could Become the Browns' Breakout Feature Back

David Richard/Associated Press

The Cincinnati Bengals' Giovani Bernard has tallied 196 targets since joining the league in 2013—seventh-most among backs over this span. The Bengals' offensive coordinator for the past two seasons was Hue Jackson, now the head coach of the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns' Duke Johnson was fourth among NFL backs with 61 receptions last season. Johnson achieved this impressive feat despite not being targeted until Week 3 in 2015. He netted 71 targets from Week 3 on and hauled in an impressive 85.9 percent of those looks, the highest rate among all backs with at least 35 targets over this span. 

Playing the "Gio" role for this Cleveland team could prove valuable for Johnson's PPR fantasy production, as Bernard hasn't finished lower than 17th at the position in this format since joining the league (using ESPN PPR scoring).

Considering the Browns' key competition for early-down work is Isaiah Crowell, a lesser talent than Bengals bruiser Jeremy Hill, there is increased upside for Johnson to become closer to a feature back than a third-down maven.

Johnson ranked eighth in the league in Pro Football Focus' Elusive Rating metric last season. With the potential for a top-15 fantasy campaign in PPR formats without even projecting a sizable share of the rushing pie in Cleveland, Johnson could become a true breakout option with top-10 upside at the position by simply outperforming Crowell on early-down opportunities.

The author compiled target and catch rate data first hand from an ESPN database. 

Bucs' Big-Play Threat Mike Evans Due for a Third-Year Breakout

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

If you listen to someone who drafted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Mike Evans last year, you'd swear he had an awful season. The argument would likely focus on the fact Evans hauled in just three touchdowns and netted a league-worst 11 drops.

Recency bias can drive the marketplace, especially coming off a particularly good or bad campaign. Beyond those ugly aforementioned metrics, Evans also had the 11th-most yards (1,206) and yards per reception (16.3) at the position in 2015.

According to an ESPN database, Evans tied with the New York Giants' Odell Beckham Jr. with 35 targets at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage last season, good for seventh in the league at the position and more than the sum of players like Julio Jones or A.J. Green. In fact, Evans is second only to the Texans' DeAndre Hopkins in targets per game of at least 10 air yards (5.9) over the past two seasons. This data was compiled firsthand using data from ESPN.

With second-year signal-caller Jameis Winston unafraid to hit Evans on daring vertical targets, and with Evans' huge catch radius ideal for red-zone usage, as his 12 scores as a rookie suggest, a breakout campaign and the potential to join the elite tier at the position is well within reach for the third-year wideout.

We can leverage the risks of the subpar touchdown and catch rates from 2015 into value this season, as Evans is regularly found late into the second and even third round in drafts this summer. Of the wideouts past the truly elite tier this season, Evans arguably has the best shot at leading the position in fantasy points.

Going Deep: Marvin Jones Is Due for a Valuable Vertical Role

George Gojkovich/Getty Images

The market was soft for shares of Emmanuel Sanders when he left the Pittsburgh Steelers for the Denver Broncos in 2014. Sanders had enjoyed career bests in catches, scores and yardage for the Steelers in 2013, but the fantasy crowd was tepid on his upside despite joining the Broncos' volume-driven passing attack. Sanders finished 2014 sixth in fantasy points per game at the position. 

The current market is soft for shares of Marvin Jones as he transitions from the Bengals to the Detroit Lions. Jones has a 10-touchdown season to his name and enjoyed career bests in receptions and yardage this past year. Could we witness a WR1 campaign unfold from Jones? 

Calvin Johnson averaged 9.9 targets per game over the past three seasons in Detroit, seventh-most among wideouts over this span. Johnson led the position and the NFL overall in targets that traveled at least 10 yards in the air with 5.9 per game since 2013, per an ESPN database.

With Johnson retiring this offseason, Jones stands to inherit a valuable vertical role, as MLive.com's Kyle Meinke reported the team's new wideout has already established a valuable rapport with signal-caller Matthew Stafford: "Jones has been more sure-handed, sucking up practically everything in his orbit. That includes the short to intermediate routes, and in the absence of Johnson, he's become the team's clear-cut deep threat as well."

The Lions rank fourth in passing attempts over the past three seasons, as Stafford rates behind only Brees, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady in yardage over this span. Opportunity knocks for Jones, as rare passing volume and a strong market share of the vertical targets vacated by Johnson are rich variables for a breakout campaign.

Investors can find Jones going 38th at the position on average, per Fantasy Football Calculator, suggesting sizable profits are to be enjoyed even as offseason hype inflates his stock.

Baltimore's Kamar Aiken Presents Awesome Value in PPR Leagues

Nick Wass/Associated Press

While a good deal of our breakout series so far has focused on somewhat popular fantasy commodities, we wanted to deliver at least one underappreciated asset to consider for your imaginary player portfolio, which brings us to the Baltimore Ravens' Kamar Aiken.

Let's begin with the simplified argument: Aiken was quietly 27th in fantasy points in ESPN PPR leagues in 2015 and is going 48th at the position, per Fantasy Football Calculator.

Digging deeper, were you aware Ravens signal-caller Joe Flacco was on pace for a career-best 4,465 yards last season? Extrapolating Flacco's per-game attempt rate for his 10 games last year to a full season equates to 660 passes, which would have finished just one shy of Rivers' league-leading total.

Even if we assume the Ravens won't be as pass-heavy with some improvement on defense and added resources in the backfield, we must also account for the presence of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman's fantasy-friendly, pass-heavy scheme.

Steve Smith is still recovering from a serious Achilles injury, and both Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman will compete for a share of vertical targets. This leaves Aiken with a good deal of volume to consume in the short and intermediate passing phases, areas he thrived in last season.

No Ravens wideout is being drafted in the first 45 picks at the position on average, while Trestman's history and Flacco's increased workload last season suggest we can project at least 575 attempts in this offense (a conservative 13 percent deflation from Flacco's 2015 pace). Aiken is positioned to potentially provide top-30 value in PPR formats and is an ideal value investment in the later rounds. 

Lamar Miller Could Lead All Running Backs in Fantasy Points in 2016

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Miller is already a highly valued fantasy asset, as evidenced by his stock as the 11th overall pick on average on Fantasy Football Calculator. Such a lofty draft-day price, however, doesn't preclude us from declaring a breakout campaign is ahead for Miller.

There is a valid argument for Miller as the top overall fantasy back this season. It begins with the fact the Texans have led the NFL in rushing attempts from their backfield over the past two seasons with 898 totes, 7 percent more than any other team under head coach Bill O'Brien's tenure. 

With the Miami Dolphins last season, Miller tallied the fourth-most fantasy points at the position in ESPN PPR leagues despite netting just 241 total touches. Conservative estimates project at least 300 touches for Miller this season, with his usage ceiling extending much higher given the Texans' propensity to feed their backfield with league-leading usage. 

For some context into the success of workhorse tailbacks over the past six seasons, we indexed the 25 seasons since 2010 in which a tailback netted at least 275 carries and 40 targets. The average fantasy performance for these 25 such seasons resulted in 277 fantasy points in PPR formats. This total would have ranked second at the position in PPR formats last season, and this is merely the average of these workhorse seasons. 

Both of the aforementioned milestones are realistic for Miller to achieve, as the rushing total represents a 60 percent share of the Texans' rush attempt average for the position over the past two seasons. With Miller proving uniquely efficient—he's fourth in yards per carry (4.6) among backs with at least 300 carries over the past three years—he might just be the most bankable breakout candidate at the position. 

Fantasy stats and rankings calculated from ESPN.com. All target and catch-rate data compiled firsthand from an ESPN database.