Playing 'Contender or Pretender' for MLB Playoff Race with 2 Months Left
Now that the trade deadline and its accompanying madness have come and gone, it's time for Major League Baseball's stretch run to whittle its playoff races down to 10 final teams.
Time will be the final judge on that. But since time takes, well, time, let's entertain ourselves by calling the shots.
Ahead is a look at 11 teams that are technically in contention, but we'll sort each into one of two categories: contenders and pretenders. We'll be looking at teams' current standings, as well as overall performance, recent performance and what they're working with heading into the final two months.
The list could be longer, but we're excluding teams that are obvious contenders with big division leads and/or huge playoff odds at Baseball Prospectus, as well as teams (i.e. the New York Yankees) that have put up a white flag.
For the 11 teams that did make the cut, we'll go in order from worst record to best record.
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 of 11
Record: 53-53
The Pittsburgh Pirates won't be winning 98 games again. The question now is whether they're even chasing a National League wild-card spot as much as their three-game deficit says they should be.
Trading Mark Melancon, Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese at the deadline made them look like sellers. Though they did get back Drew Hutchison, Ivan Nova and Antonio Bastardo, whether they're supposed to be upgrades is a matter even the Pirates are shrugging at.
"There is some confusion," Andrew McCutchen told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "Some things like, 'Why?' What was the reasoning?'"
Speaking of McCutchen, the Pirates have opted for Plan Z in their quest to snap him out of a season-long funk that's gotten especially bad since the break. Manager Clint Hurdle benched him for an entire series this week, which McCutchen told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was "not something I prefer for myself."
Even if the rest does get McCutchen back on track, whatever hot hitting he provides may only level out an offense that's fallen flat after a strong start. While underestimating pitching coach Ray Searage is generally not a good idea, even he has his work cut out for him with a starting rotation that's short on talent outside of Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.
Things are not going well in Pittsburgh. It'll probably stay that way.
Verdict: Pretender
Colorado Rockies
2 of 11
Record: 54-54
After switching between mediocre and bad for most of the year, the Colorado Rockies are now quite good. They've won 11 out of 14 contests to climb within three games of the NL's second wild-card spot.
As is usually the case when the Rockies are riding high, pitching has been key. Colorado arms have caught fire with a 3.18 ERA in the second half. That bends the limits of believability, but doesn't break them.
Kevin Ruprecht of SB Nation's Beyond the Box Score argues this is the most exciting crop of pitchers the Rockies have had in years. Jon Gray, Chad Bettis, Tyler Chatwood, Tyler Anderson and Jorge De La Rosa are all pitching well, and the whole staff is benefiting from a ground-ball habit that looks like a middle finger to Coors Field.
The pressure's on the offense to pick it up, as it's regressed to the tune of a modest (by Rockies standards) .760 OPS in the second half. Losing Trevor Story, the rookie master of dingers, for possibly the rest of the year won't help that.
However, the Rockies do have Carlos Gonzalez and brand-new rookie David Dahl on impressive hot streaks. If Nolan Arenado, who's hit 69 home runs since the beginning of last season, snaps out of his minor funk, the Rockies offense should resemble a traditional Rockies offense.
To be sure, the Rockies aren't this good. But they're coming together at the right time. As we'll discuss, it helps that a couple of teams ahead of them are falling apart at the wrong time.
Verdict: Contender
Seattle Mariners
3 of 11
Record: 54-53
There have been several times when the Seattle Mariners seemed on the verge of ducking out of the American League playoff race. But they're still around, and their five-game wild-card deficit isn't insurmountable.
Long a source of crippling frustration, the club's offense has been its biggest strength all year. That'll be the case as long as Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager are socking the daylights out of the ball, and they're giving zero indication they're about to stop doing that.
But what of the arms? The Mariners haven't had an easy time establishing any kind of consistency on the mound. With a 4.49 ERA, it's only gotten tougher in the second half.
Things could look worse. Felix Hernandez has already rejoined Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton in the club's rotation, and Taijuan Walker should return Saturday. In the bullpen, Steve Cishek has ceded the closer role to Edwin Diaz, who has the highest strikeout rate of any reliever.
But while it all sounds good on the surface, there are too many nits to pick. King Felix is not the dominant presence he once was, and "consistent" doesn't describe Iwakuma, Paxton or Walker. As great as Diaz is, Seattle's bullpen has a soft underbelly.
What's there isn't bad, but it's not enough for the Mariners to make the requisite leap.
Verdict: Pretender
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Houston Astros
4 of 11
Record: 56-52
The Houston Astros have gone the opposite way of the New York Mets. They started with a thud, going 7-17 in April. But they're 49-35 since then, giving them a 3.5-game deficit in the AL wild-card race.
More recently, though, the Astros have cycled back to the bad old days. They're under .500 since the start of July and have lost eight of their last 10 games. Look under all this, and the cracks are there.
What could have been a fantastic offense has instead been wildly mediocre. The Astros are 10th in the AL in OPS and runs, and they have slowed down even more with a .702 OPS in the second half.
Jose Altuve has been stupendous, and Carlos Correa and George Springer have been plenty good, but they're alone on an island. Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez have shown few signs of getting on track, and neither Alex Bregman nor A.J. Reed looks cut out to be a bolt of energy just yet.
Thank goodness for Houston's pitching, which has been really good ever since stumbling out of the gate. But Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers have been hittable of late, and now Lance McCullers is injured again.
The Astros are in the same spot as the Mariners: They're not bad, but it's hard to see how they're going to get any better.
Verdict: Pretender
New York Mets
5 of 11
Record: 56-52
With an eight-game deficit in the NL East, the Mets can kiss the prospect of a second straight division title goodbye. Their focus is on the wild card, where their deficit is only one game.
Getting more from an offense that's 10th in the National League in OPS and 13th in runs will be crucial. Hence their deadline-day trade for Jay Bruce.
"He's been a run producer," said Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, via Adam Rubin of ESPN.com. "He's been in the middle of a lineup. From my standpoint, are we relying on him to produce runs? Yes, I think probably we are."
While Bruce, who's hit 25 homers, is plenty good, he's been plugged into an offense that's otherwise falling apart. Yoenis Cespedes has gone on the disabled list, joining a star-studded cast of injured Mets that includes Asdrubal Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Lucas Duda, Juan Lagares and David Wright.
This could make runs hard to come by in the stretch run, which will place even more strain on the club's pitching staff. Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are up to it, but the early second-half struggles of Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon and Jeurys Familia don't bode well for the unit as a whole.
Everything started well for the Mets, as they went 15-7 in April. But they've gone 41-45 since then, and with all their current struggles, April appears to be the last time 2016 felt like their year.
Verdict: Pretender
Miami Marlins
6 of 11
Record: 57-51
Currently tied for the National League's second wild card, the Miami Marlins have an easy route to ending their 13-year playoff drought.
The Marlins have gotten this far despite ranking 11th in the NL in runs, but there could be more offense in their future. The fact that they're sixth in the league in OPS suggests as much, and the club's lineup isn't far from clicking on all cylinders.
Giancarlo Stanton has finally caught fire with a 1.002 OPS over the last month. Martin Prado and Christian Yelich have also been hot. Dee Gordon has picked up where he left off since returning from his suspension. If Justin Bour makes a strong return and Marcell Ozuna gets back to his All-Star form, this'll be a dangerous lineup.
Miami's bullpen is also in good shape. It has the NL's highest strikeout rate since the break, and A.J. Ramos, Kyle Barraclough, Dustin McGowan and Fernando Rodney give it enough arms to keep that up.
The linchpin is Miami's rotation, which will soon have to deal with the complications of Jose Fernandez's innings limit. But this is where the addition of Andrew Cashner should make a difference. So should the return of Wei-Yin Chen, which could happen in the nick of time next month.
For a team that only needs to tread water to stay in contention, all this bodes well.
Verdict: Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals
7 of 11
Record: 57-51
The St. Louis Cardinals are going to fall short of matching last year's 100 wins. With the Chicago Cubs far ahead in the NL Central, it's up to the Cardinals to chase a wild-card spot.
But they've gone 45-39 after a 12-12 April, and to some extent you can't help but anticipate a rip-roaring hot streak. The Cardinals' run differential of plus-81 ranks third among NL clubs. They may be owed a few wins.
Their offense will be the key to delivering said wins. It ranks second in the NL in runs and OPS and has been consistent throughout. Aledmys Diaz's injury is an obstacle to overcome, but the returns of Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Moss should help. So should the Friday return of Matt Carpenter. Despite being out since before the All-Star break, he ranks as one of the NL's best hitters.
If the bats continue to do their job, St. Louis' arms will only need to keep from getting worse. A rough start to August is highlighting that as an iffy proposition, but it shouldn't last.
Carlos Martinez and a resurgent Adam Wainwright give the Cards two starters they can lean on. Mike Leake, Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia haven't been as reliable of late, but one can think of worse threesomes to bet on for a turnaround. Thanks to the addition of Zach Duke, the bridge to Seung Hwan Oh is stronger than it was pre-deadline.
There have been better Cardinals teams than this one. But if people are banking on this ship to sink, they shouldn't be.
Verdict: Contender
Detroit Tigers
8 of 11
Record: 59-49
Just when the Cleveland Indians seemed to have the AL Central all wrapped up, the Detroit Tigers roared into view with an eight-game win streak.
In reality, the Tigers have been coming in for longer than just the last few days. They're 35-22 since June. As I recently wrote, they're shaping up well for the final two months.
An offense that is already surging ahead in the second half welcomed back a major piece Wednesday when J.D. Martinez slammed a go-ahead home run on the first pitch he saw since coming off the disabled list. As he joins a red-hot Miguel Cabrera and a warming Justin Upton, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler, Detroit's lineup could be as good as anyone's down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Detroit's rotation already has a great one-two punch in the form of grizzled veteran Justin Verlander and rookie right-hander Michael Fulmer. And you know the Tigers' eternally terrible bullpen? It has a 2.54 ERA since the break. Not so terrible now, is it?
All this has already pushed the Tigers to within three games of the AL Central lead and half a game back of the second wild-card spot. It should continue.
Verdict: Contender
Boston Red Sox
9 of 11
Record: 59-48
They're two games out in the AL East and a half-game up in the wild-card race, but the Boston Red Sox won't improve on either front unless they quit their ongoing peaks-and-valleys act.
That's not up to their offense. Boston's bats have been hit or miss in stretches with nine losses in 14 games, but this is still baseball's top run-scoring lineup. It looks the part, too, as David Ortiz and Mookie Betts anchor a unit that can do it all.
As it has all season, the big question lies on the mound. Boston's pitchers are 10th in the American League with a 4.33 ERA and haven't been able to get on track.
But with a 3.84 ERA so far in the second half, the times may finally be changing for the better. David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez have been pitching well, so the Red Sox's rotation is just waiting on Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz to settle in for the stretch. Fun fact: Both were All-Stars this year.
Boston's bullpen is also in solid shape. A healthy Craig Kimbrel has reclaimed the closer role. Now that Fernando Abad has joined Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa, the bridge to Kimbrel is strong.
Although the Red Sox have been stumbling for a while now, they have what they need to smooth things out.
Verdict: Contender
Toronto Blue Jays
10 of 11
Record: 62-47
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a virtual tie for first place in the AL East, giving them a straight shot at a second consecutive division title.
It took a surge in the final two months for Toronto to win the East in 2015. That won't be necessary this year. With a 51-33 record since May, the Blue Jays merely need to keep doing what they've been doing.
One possible snag could have been the fate of Aaron Sanchez. With an AL-best 2.71 ERA in his first full season as a starter, the Blue Jays rotation would have suffered a blow if innings concerns had bumped him to the bullpen.
But that's not happening. After a period of uncertainty, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins announced Thursday that Sanchez is staying in Toronto's rotation. A unit with the AL's top ERA (3.63) shall remain intact.
Meanwhile, Toronto's bullpen didn't need Sanchez's help anyway. It's had its ups and downs, but Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini comprise a good late-inning relief core, and newly acquired Scott Feldman is a good guy to eat innings in a pinch.
Despite a sub-.700 OPS in the second half, Toronto's vaunted offense isn't worth worrying about either. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson sprang to life with a pair of homers Wednesday, and a healthy Jose Bautista and the recently acquired Melvin Upton Jr. pad out the depth around him.
Verdict: Contender
Baltimore Orioles
11 of 11
Record: 61-46
The Baltimore Orioles have lived the good life in 2016. They've been either in first or second place in the AL East all year, and they hold a share of first place now.
The second half is testing one part of their winning formula, however. The power that made them a menace in the first half has come apart. They've cranked only 21 home runs, and their slugging percentage has fallen all the way from .467 to .348.
Based on their track records, it's easy to assume Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Chris Davis will snap out of their slumps. It's harder to have faith in Mark Trumbo and Jonathan Schoop, whose second-half slumps are likely course corrections for first halves that were too good to be true. Ditto J.J. Hardy and Matt Wieters, who are past their primes.
It's not all bad, though. The Orioles would only need more pitching to survive less offense, and they're as well positioned for that now as they've been all year.
The late innings are certainly in good hands. A healthy Darren O'Day has joined Zach Britton, Brad Brach and Mychal Givens in arguably the AL's top bullpen. As rough as Baltimore's rotation has been this year, the trio of Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy is looking formidable. If Wade Miley keeps the ball down, he'll be an upgrade over Ubaldo Jimenez or Yovani Gallardo.
The Orioles might be the weakest of the AL East's top three contenders. But since they're not set up to fall apart, they are indeed still a contender.
Verdict: Contender
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through Wednesday, August 3.
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