Josh Gordon's Return Could Be a Great Story, but History Says a Letdown Awaits

I am sorry. I don't want to say this. Please let me be wrong. Please, please, please let me be wrong.

It's just that I think it's only a matter of time before Josh Gordon fails yet again.

I hate saying it. I do. But anyone who has any faith in Gordon, including the Browns, is playing the fool.

Roger Goodell reinstated Gordon on Monday, allowing the star receiver to return to live game action after serving a four-game suspension to start the season.

"As we discussed at our [July 19] meeting, as commissioner, I want nothing more than to see you turn your circumstances around and succeed," Goodell wrote (via a press release from the NFL's communications department). He continued:

"

Countless others[,] including your agent, teammates and coaches, Mr. [Jimmy] Haslam and the leadership of the organization, the program professionals and Jim Brown[,] also have pledged to provide you with every resource at their disposal. But as you acknowledged, ultimately, your future is your responsibility. I have every belief that you can make the right choices, but it will be up to you to do so.

"

This quote touches on a few potential trouble spots. First, Gordon had that support before, still failed multiple drug tests and was suspended three times by the NFL.

Second, consider again this sentence from Goodell's letter: "But as you acknowledged, ultimately, your future is your responsibility."

Gordon's career has stretched the span of 64 possible NFL games; he has played in only 35. If he does play in Week 5—and that's a gigantic "if"—he will have missed 33 of 68 contests. So why should we think the fourth time is the charm?

Jason Miller/Getty Images

Remember, while in college at Baylor, Gordon was ensnared in two marijuana-related incidents. The second led to his indefinite suspension and departure from the school. So between college and the NFL, that's four suspensions.

People can change, and I hope he does, but I'm not encouraged. On Monday night, Gordon was hanging with Johnny Manziel, per TMZ. Remember, one of Gordon's suspensions was for testing positive for alcohol.

Manziel reportedly has been partying so hard, Vincent Chase wants to hang with him. Manziel's antics at times have been so bad, he's worried friends and family.

In other words, I'm not sure Manziel is the guy you want to hang with if your goal is to stay sober. I know all the Manziel bros will say who cares if Gordon and Manziel are friends. But almost any player who has been through the league's substance abuse program will say one of the key steps to long-term success is surrounding yourself not just with people who are sober, or trying to be, but also with people who have the same level of motivation you do.

One Browns official told me it's clear Gordon has worked hard to get back into football. That cannot be said, in any way, of Manziel. Gordon's chances of succeeding improve dramatically if he lets Manziel pay Xbox with someone else.

While I hope Gordon succeeds, I worry about his chances.

I'm not the only one. When I spoke to people around the league, there was drooling over Gordon's talent, and if the Browns decide to trade Gordon, there is fertile ground to do so.

There also is an understanding that the chances of Gordon having a relapse are high.

"I'd take him," one AFC team official said, "with the understanding that the price is low and the risk is high."

Added one NFC assistant coach: "You'd take him, cross your fingers and hope for the best, knowing there's a good chance the worst would happen."

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

Perhaps Gordon's best chance to succeed lies with Browns head coach Hue Jackson, one of the best in football at reaching players. But that is only if the Browns don't trade him. And I'm not convinced they won't.

Gordon is one of the best raw talents at the position in the past 20 years. His raw skills rival those of players like Randy Moss and Tim Brown. It's true. He's potentially that good. It's also why he's getting a fourth shot. Without that talent, he'd be nowhere near the NFL.

I want to make this clear: I want Gordon to succeed. If he does, if he somehow comes back from the abyss, and goes to the Pro Bowl, and spends the next 10 years rewriting the record book, it would be one of the best NFL stories of all time. I hope that happens.

But I am sorry. I don't want to say this. Please let me be wrong. Please, please, please let me be wrong.

It's just that I think it's only a matter of time before Josh Gordon fails yet again.

Mike Freeman covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @mikefreemanNFL.