NFL Predictions 2016: Projecting Teams with Most-Improved Win Totals

Change is a fickle beast in the NFL, especially when it comes to win totals.

Take a brief glance at last year: Few predicted the Baltimore Ravens would fall to 5-11, the Andrew Luck-led Indianapolis Colts would land at .500, and teams such as the Washington Redskins and the Minnesota Vikings, the latter besting the Green Bay Packers, would win their respective divisions.

What does the NFL have in store in 2016? After an offseason of changes, new faces in new places and rookies altering lineups, it's almost hard to say.

Careful analysis, though, will show a handful of teams ready to take a large uptick in the win category this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

This seems like taking the easy way out, sure. The Jacksonville Jaguars posted all of five wins last year, meaning a rather improved record wouldn't be the most difficult thing to obtain. 

But this is the Jaguars.

That may be a bit demeaning, but this is the franchise that hasn't won more than five games in a season since 2010, when 8-8 was the finish. That was the best finish since 2007, when the team posted (this isn't a lie, promise) 11 wins and won a playoff game.

Still, head coach Gus Bradley seems to have the team on the right track. The offense didn't need much in the way of help this offseason. Blake Bortles (35 touchdowns, 18 interceptions last year) still has Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns to hit, and Chris Ivory arrived to take over the duties at starting tailback.

Defense is where the Jaguars grew the most. Jalen Ramsey, the No. 5 pick, starts right away and improves the secondary, while depth line pieces, such as Yannick Ngakoue and Sheldon Day, provide a boost. New arrival Tashaun Gipson will slide into a starter role at safety next to Jonathan Cyprien, while the front office also coughed up a huge price to land defensive lineman Malik Jackson, who will play with the returning-from-injury Dante Fowler Jr., the No. 3 pick last year.

That's a lot to digest. But Bortles explained the situation best, according to SiriusXM NFL Radio:

This is simple: Jacksonville tackled this rebuild in two parts. Defense was second, but now it's here, faster and more talented than ever, more than ready to take on Luck and Co. in the AFC South. A three or four-game swing isn't out of the question.

Prediction: 9-7

Cleveland Browns

The knee-jerk reaction to seeing the Cleveland Browns on here is rather predictable. 

Since becoming a team again in 1999, the Browns have gone better than 8-8 twice.  Even when it looks like there's positive momentum to build around, such as winning seven games in 2014, the wheels seem to fall off—the team won three games last year.

Getting back to the seven-win mark would be a major swing and isn't out of the question after a strong offseason.

Never mind the quarterback situation. Head coach Hue Jackson is ready to change the culture and just posted strong seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals as the offensive coordinator, where he squeezed the most out of Andy Dalton by controlling the offense around him. It'll be much the same story here, whether it's Robert Griffin III or Josh McCown under center.

Long story short, Jackson has the necessary pieces with elite athletes such as Corey Coleman, Andrew Hawkins, Marlon Moore and Duke Johnson to get an explosive, simple short-passing game going.

The defense should see the most improvement. Pass-rushing rookies Emmanuel Ogbah, Carl Nassib and Joe Schobert combined for 37 sacks last year, according to Pro Football Focus.

Granted, this won't be a pretty season by any means. But the Browns added a ridiculous 14 picks in the draft and are much more talented around glue guys like Joe Haden now. A four-win swing isn't anything to sniff at, especially if the front office lets Jackson build on it.

Prediction: 7-9

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys seem poised to take one of the biggest swings of all in 2016 after getting healthy and making some good additions.

Dallas suffered an eight-game swing last year, going from 12 wins and an NFC East crown in 2014 to four wins last year while Tony Romo could only suit up in four games and Dez Bryant mustered nine.

Most of this will hinge on Romo's return, as PFF illustrated:

The consistency there shows it shouldn't be much of a problem, though, especially with the usual crew of Bryant, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten to hit in the passing game.

Don't forget rookie Ezekiel Elliott behind him, either. The No. 4 pick this year, Elliott ran for 1,821 yards and 23 scores last season, and he changes the complexion of the offense.

Then again, the defense looks shaky. But rookies such as Maliek Collins and Charles Tapper provide depth in the trenches and a young guy like Byron Jones should be ready to take over in the secondary.

More important than anything is the fact Elliott, flanked by Alfred Morris, should help the Cowboys control games and keep the pressure off Romo. It's enough for another major swing, this time in the other direction.

Prediction: 9-7

Honorable Mentions

Team	2015 record
Baltimore Ravens	5-11
Chicago Bears	6-10
New York Giants	6-10

Stats are courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of July 24. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.