MLB's Biggest Surprises, Disappointments of 2016's 1st Half
Apart from Mike Trout being all forms of awesome and Jacob deGrom having marvelous hair, little is predictable in a Major League Baseball season. The sport deals in surprises and disappointments.
That gives us quite a few options to choose from for this list.
We're going to look at five big surprises and five big disappointments from the first half of the 2016 season. For the sake of variety, there's one of each for five categories: team, everyday star, ace, offseason acquisition and rookie. In addition to the main attraction, each category will also feature a few honorable/dishonorable mentions.
Step into the box when you're ready.
Surprising Team: Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles went just 81-81 in 2015 and made seemingly few impact moves the ensuing winter. When the projections pegged them as an also-ran in the 2016 American League East race, it all made sense.
Instead, there they are at 51-36 and in first place. The short answer: because baseball.
The long answer is that the Orioles' two biggest strengths have loomed larger than their big weaknesses. One is the insane amount of power in their lineup. Led my Mark Trumbo's league-leading 28 home runs, Baltimore's 137 homers are also a league-leading mark. If they keep mashing dingers at this rate, they could break the single-season record of 264.
"We knew that coming in," Trumbo told Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun, "if everyone plays to their potential, you're not necessarily penciling guys in for career years, but if everybody does what they've always done, the numbers should add up and be on our side, at least in the power department."
Elsewhere, the Orioles bullpen has been able to make up for a starting rotation that's struggled with a 5.15 ERA. Led by Zach Britton, O's relievers are second in the AL with 303 innings pitched and a 3.12 ERA.
Hitting home runs and owning the late innings isn't a foolproof way to win games. But when a team can do both as well as the Orioles, apparently it can happen.
Also: Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners
Disappointing Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
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All it took for the Arizona Diamondbacks to win the offseason was a $206.5 million contract for Zack Greinke and a blockbuster trade for Shelby Miller. With those two joining a healthy Patrick Corbin, a team that had everything except pitching in 2015 was arguably ready to contend.
Or not, as it turns out. The Diamondbacks' 38-52 record puts them 19 games behind the San Francisco Giants in the NL West.
Ironically, the club's pitching has been the primary culprit. Greinke, who's currently injured, hasn't lived up to his ace billing in posting a 3.62 ERA. Corbin's done worse with a 4.94 ERA. With a 7.14 ERA, Miller has been the worst. Overall, the club's starters have a 4.94 ERA.
That's better than what the Orioles have gotten from their starters, but the Diamondbacks don't have as much power. Or as much bullpen talent. Or enough depth of any kind, really. In retrospect, maybe they should have tried to solve that problem instead.
"It's only natural to review the roster from the top down, which is fine, but you also have to view it from the bottom up," an NL executive told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. "If you're weak in certain positions or innings or spots in your lineup, you cannot hide it over 162 games. It kills you. The top-heavy roster doesn't succeed."
But as we'll discuss in a moment, it hasn't been all bad in Arizona...
Also: Kansas City Royals, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates
Surprising Star: Jake Lamb
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Hey, at least the Diamondbacks have Jake Lamb.
I wonder how many people outside the organization (and the Lamb household) expected to say that in 2016. Sure, Lamb is a former top-100 prospect. But at the start of the year, he was also a guy with a major platoon split and modest overall numbers in the majors.
In 2016, Lamb's numbers are anything but modest. The 25-year-old third baseman carried a .291/.371/.612 line and 20 homers into the All-Star break. That .612 slugging percentage leads the National League and, per adjusted OPS, Lamb is one of the 10 best hitters in the entire league.
Here's how Lamb explained himself to ESPN Stats & Info's Mark Simon: “I lowered my hands [in the stance] and got a leg kick going. The main goal was to create a bat path where I’m entering the [hitting] zone earlier and leaving the zone later.”
One of the effects has been a complete erasure of Lamb's problem with same-side pitching. He's not a lefty killer, per se, but he's league average against them now.
The other effect has been a power uptick that's as legit as his slugging percentage would suggest. According to Baseball Savant, he's added 3 mph in average exit velocity. Take that and add it to basically the same ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio he had in 2015, and you get lots of power.
A star-making amount, to be more precise.
Also: Jackie Bradley Jr., Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, Robinson Cano
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Disappointing Star: Andrew McCutchen
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Four things were a given between 2011 and 2015: death, taxes, people using the "death, taxes and [blank]" cliche and Andrew McCutchen.
The Pittsburgh Pirates' center fielder was an All-Star in each of those five seasons, and he was the National League MVP in 2013. He hit .302 with a .905 OPS and an average of 25 homers and 20 steals per season. According to FanGraphs, he was worth at least five wins above replacement each year.
But in 2016, what's happening with Cutch just feels...wrong.
Through 84 games, McCutchen is only hitting .247 with a .745 OPS. That's league-average production. When paired with his below-average defense, McCutchen is having trouble being more than a replacement-level player.
It's hard to chalk this up to a heaping helping of bad luck. McCutchen's strikeouts are up, and his walks and power are down. It would also be easy to blame such struggles on age if McCutchen were an older star (see Fielder, Prince), but he's still only 29. What's happening with him shouldn't be happening yet.
On the bright side, he has indeed been better lately. If the Pirates and fans who enjoy good baseball players are lucky, that'll continue.
Also: Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Jose Abreu
Surprising Ace: Steven Wright
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Take a look at the top 10 of the major league ERA leaderboard, and you'll see an assortment of All-Stars, Cy Young winners, former top prospects and...
Steven Wright?
Yup, that's him with the 2.68 ERA, tying him with reigning National League Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta for 10th in the league. That's good for a 31-year-old. It's really good for a 31-year-old knuckleballer. It's really, really good for a 31-year-old knuckleballer who was an afterthought coming into the year.
But a fluke? Perhaps not. A good knuckleball can do a lot of damage. And according to one guy who would know, Wright does indeed have a good one.
“Just the consistency of the violence in the strike zone is truly amazing,” former Boston Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield said, per Henry McKenna of the Boston Globe.
If Wakefield's word isn't good enough, you can take it from the numbers. Per Brooks Baseball, opposing batters are hitting just .221 and slugging .302 against Wright's knuckleball. Then, of course, there are all the GIFs. Wright's knuckleball has provided some of the best pitch GIFs of the season, including one that captured Chris Davis flailing like a newborn at a particularly nasty pitch.
If there's more where that came from, we may have to put the pitcher ahead of the comedian in the Steven Wright power rankings.
Also: Trevor Bauer, Aaron Sanchez, Kyle Hendricks
Disappointing Ace: Sonny Gray
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Perhaps more so than any of the other categories on this list, this is one where you can take your pick. From Matt Harvey to Dallas Keuchel to James Shields to Francisco Liriano, this hasn't been a good year for big-name pitchers.
But since we can only pick one sob story, let's talk about how Sonny Gray has been less sunny and more gray.
The young Oakland A's right-hander didn't come across many tough times in his first three seasons. He put up a 2.88 ERA and earned true ace status in 2015. He posted a 2.73 ERA in 208 innings, leading to a third-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting.
But in 2016, Gray is rocking a 5.16 ERA in 90.2 innings. That ERA puts him in the bottom 10 among qualified starters—a place where no other true ace can be found.
As Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post broke down in May, batters have figured out Gray's approach. He also hasn't had the dominant slider that he developed in 2015. He's throwing it less and missing fewer bats with it.
The good news is that Gray is still only 26. And if his velocity is any indication, there's nothing physically wrong with him. His bad first half could prove to be a bump in the road.
Also: Matt Harvey, Dallas Keuchel, James Shields, Francisco Liriano
Surprising Bargain: Ian Desmond
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In case anyone needs a refresher on the Ian Desmond Saga, here it goes: He turned down a $100 million contract offer from the Washington Nationals in 2014, had a terrible walk year in 2015 and paid for it when he landed just a one-year, $8 million deal this past winter.
Nobody would have been surprised if Desmond's story got even more depressing in 2016. Instead, the opposite has happened.
Now with the Texas Rangers, Desmond earned his second All-Star appearance on the strength of a .322 average, .899 OPS, 15 homers and 15 stolen bases.
“This season, up to this point, I’m just a better player than I was last year,” the 30-year-old said this week, per Ted Berg of USA Today. “I think every year I’ve kind of evolved in different ways. I don’t know. I’m doing all the same stuff.
Desmond does indeed seem to have evolved at the plate, where he's cut down his strikeouts and become less reliant on his pull side. The former shortstop has also been a natural in his transition to the outfield, posting easily above-average metrics.
Add all that up, and Baseball-Reference.com's WAR claims you get a top-10 player. According to FanGraphs' WAR, it's actually a top-five player. Either way, it's clearly the kind of player who should do much better in free agency this winter.
Also: Mark Trumbo, John Lackey, Daniel Murphy, Rich Hill
Disappointing Bust: Justin Upton
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Yeah, yeah. Zack Greinke, David Price and Jason Heyward haven't been great after signing contracts worth a total of $607.5 million.
But none of the three has been outright terrible, either. Not as much as Justin Upton, anyway.
Upton's long stay on the free-agent market ended in January when he signed with the Detroit Tigers for $132.75 million over six years. For a 28-year-old who was coming off a par-for-the-course 2015 season (.790 OPS, 26 homers, 19 steals), that seemed fair enough.
It turns out the Tigers would have been better off letting Upton stay on the free-agent market. With a .235/.289/.381 slash line, he's been a well-below-average hitter in his first year with the club. He's also been a poor fielder. All told, he hasn't even been a replacement-level player.
Like with Andrew McCutchen, whatever hope there is to be found here comes from the fact that Upton is a typically good player who's still young. But a major difference is that Upton's best years are firmly in the distant past rather than right behind him. This could be the start of a real decline.
It's a good thing the Tigers haven't committed big bucks to any other fading stars...uh, never mind.
Also: Zack Greinke, David Price, Jason Heyward, Shelby Miller
Surprising Rookie: Aledmys Diaz
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If it's the best rookies you want, you must turn your attention to Corey Seager and Michael Fulmer before anyone else. Trevor Story also deserves your love (and puns).
One thing those three have in common, though, is that they were all considered top prospects at one time or another. Aledmys Diaz was not—hence his appearance here.
Diaz was actually close to being a non-prospect at one point. He only made it halfway through his second season in the minors before he was designated for assignment. The St. Louis Cardinals had signed him mainly for a bat that had produced a .307 average in the Cuban National Series, and he wasn't hitting.
So began Diaz's emergence as an All-Star. He finished the 2015 minor league season on a tear, hitting .337 with a .986 OPS. He then hit .315 with a .987 OPS in the Arizona Fall League. In 81 games at the major league level this year, the 25-year-old shortstop has hit .315 with a .915 OPS.
“I think he’s better than maybe we gave him credit for, and I also like the fact he’s improving as we go,” Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said, per Mark Saxon of ESPN.com.
Mozeliak may be right about that. After cooling down in May, Diaz has heated back up in June and July. In the process, he's become less pull-heavy without sacrificing much hard contact. That's a mark of a good hitter right there.
Also: Trevor Story, Junior Guerra, Ryan Dull
Disappointing Rookie: Byron Buxton
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Corey Seager entered 2016 as everyone's No. 1 prospect, and he has looked the part in his first full season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's already an All-Star, and he is the obvious front-runner for National League Rookie of the Year.
But there's a yin to Seager's yang. His name is Byron Buxton.
Buxton only came in as baseball's No. 2 prospect, but his situation was otherwise similar to Seager's. Beyond being a hot prospect, he was a guy who had gotten his feet wet in the majors in 2015 and who had a starting job lined up for 2016. The ingredients for a big breakout were there.
A big breakout has not happened. The 22-year-old center fielder has hit just .212 with a .617 OPS in 48 games with the Minnesota Twins. In 94 total major league games, he's just a .211 hitter with a .598 OPS.
It's not tools Buxton lacks. He has more than enough of those to be a super-duper star. He also doesn't lack a track record, as his includes a .357 average and 1.000 OPS at Triple-A.
But to date, Buxton has simply been overmatched against major league pitching. It shows in his career strikeout rate of 34.8 percent. That's Mark Reynolds and Chris Carter territory.
It's still too soon to label Buxton as a permanent bust. But if nothing else, his struggles are a reminder of something that can't be said enough: Baseball is hard.
Also: Julio Urias, Ketel Marte
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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