Ranking the Early Contenders to Be 2016's Surprise NFL Playoff Team

It happens every year: A team defies dismal preseason expectations and stuns the National Football League by making the playoffs.

OK, so that isn't always how it happens. Sometimes there are teams "on the rise" who spend the preseason talked up as dark-horse playoff contenders. More often than not, those horses fail to come in. But every now and again, one does.

In 2015, we had a little bit of both.

The Minnesota Vikings received a lot of preseason hype as a club ready to challenge for a playoff spot. They did just that, winning the NFC North and coming a chip-shot field goal short of knocking out the two-time defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks in the postseason.

The Washington Redskins, meanwhile, weren't expected to do much. Many preseason prognosticators picked them to finish last in the NFC East. Instead, they won the division.

So, who are this year's surprise contenders? Who's about to head from the outhouse to the penthouse? Who is on the verge of playing football into January after missing the postseason festivities last year?

Before we get to that, a few quick notes: You won't find the New York Giants featured here. Or the Dallas Cowboys. Or the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, the Ravens and Cowboys both had miserable seasons in 2015. The Giants haven't made the playoffs since winning Super Bowl XLVI.

But all three of those teams have multiple Lombardi trophies, and with that success comes increased expectations. None of the three are locks to make the playoffs in 2016, yet all three are expected to do so. Just as they are every year.

Also, if you went .500 or better in 2015, you're out of consideration here. Sorry, Buffalo and Atlanta, but becoming a game better isn't a surprise. The Jets winning 10 games last year was the surprise. A repeat? Not so much.

Lastly, you must have a real shot at the playoffs, at least in this writer's opinion. It's a subjective matter that will anger some fans, but the Los Angeles Rams aren't going to the dance with a rookie under center. The Cleveland Browns making the postseason would be a sign of the apocalypse, not a surprise.

For this handful of teams, that isn't the case. If they make it to the NFL's postseason, some jaws are going to hit the ground.

Odds are pretty good at least one will do just that.

Missed the Cut

Associated Press

These teams have a chance, in theory, to make the playoffs. But to say the odds are against them is being kind.

10. New Orleans Saints (5 percent)

With Drew Brees at the helm, the Saints are going to score plenty of points. They added even more offensive firepower in tight end Coby Fleener and rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas. But it's the same old problem in the Big Easy. The defense is going to be awful. Tackle Sheldon Rankins has the makings of a solid player, but young pass-rusher Hau'oli Kikaha is likely done for the year with a torn ACL, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. The Saints' big free-agent addition on defense, linebacker James Laurinaitis, was the league's second-worst inside linebacker in 2015, per Pro Football Focus.

9. Tennessee Titans (5 percent)

There's room for some optimism in Nashville, especially on offense. Second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota headlines a young and talented corps that includes a bowling ball tailback in Derrick Henry, a bevy of physically gifted receivers and two young bruisers at tackle in Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan. The Titans also have veteran anchors in running back DeMarco Murray and tight end Delanie Walker. In addition, they quietly finished 12th in the NFL in total defense in 2015. However, none of that changes the fact they look like the weakest team in arguably the NFL's weakest division. Maybe in 2017, Tennessee.

8. Chicago Bears (5 percent)

The 2015 winner of the "Hey, this team isn't as horrible as I thought" award, the Bears did their best to shore up their biggest weakness on defense by adding a pair of veteran inside linebackers in Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. However, the departure of star tailback Matt Forte makes the run game a huge question mark. That puts a lot more pressure on quarterback Jay Cutler, who had one of his best seasons last year under offensive coordinator Adam Gase—the same Adam Gase who is now the head coach of the Miami Dolphins.

7. Miami Dolphins (10 percent)

Speaking of Gase, the Dolphins hired the first-time head coach in the hopes that he can work some of his "quarterback whisperer" magic on Ryan Tannehill, who regressed significantly in 2015 after inking a hefty extension. But even if Gase is successful and a Miami defense that wildly underperformed last year takes it up a notch or three, it may not matter. The 'Fins play in a division where they were the only team to finish below .500 last year, and they face three brutal road games in September at Seattle, at New England and at Cincinnati. Fall off pace in the AFC East and the Dolphins will be out of it before pumpkins are carved.

6. San Diego Chargers (10 percent)

Will the 2016 Chargers be better than last year's 4-12 squad? Almost certainly. Tailback Melvin Gordon has nowhere to go but up. The addition of speedster Travis Benjamin was one of free agency's best value signings. And if No. 3 overall pick Joey Bosa plays anywhere near his draft slot, the San Diego defense is going to both surprise and impress a lot of people. But the math just isn't there. In an AFC West with two playoff teams from 2015—including the world champions—and a rising young Oakland squad (more on them in a bit), there are just too many teams to leapfrog.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

After a pair of 10-win seasons that included a wild-card playoff spot, 2015 was supposed to be the year for the Philadelphia Eagles. Chip Kelly received complete control of personnel decisions and re-made the roster in his own image. A flurry of new faces joined the team, including quarterback Sam Bradford, running backs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso.

One year later, Bradford and Mathews are the only ones of that bunch left. Kelly's grand experiment was a disaster, leading the Eagles to fire him before the 2015 season even ended. General manager Howie Roseman then spent the spring undoing nearly every move Kelly made as quickly as he could.

The arrival of new head coach Doug Pederson was supposed to put an end to the drama. But when the Eagles traded up to the No. 2 slot in the 2016 draft, Bradford saw the writing on the wall. The Eagles, despite re-upping Bradford for two more years, had their sights set on his replacement.

That spurred a bit of a hissy fit from Bradford, and sure enough, the Eagles drafted a quarterback in Carson Wentz of North Dakota State. But tempers eventually cooled, and as Matt Lombardo of NJ.com reported in June, Pederson is prepared to ride with Bradford under center:

"

He took some time away to evaluate the situation and came back and said, 'Hey, you know what? Maybe it's OK. Maybe we're going to be all right.'

For him to do that and come back and trust me that way, one of the things I've told you guys and I've told the team even from Day 1 is to be open and transparent. I'm going to do that with any player. I'm going to let them know where they stand and where I stand on the issues.

It's great that he's done as well as he's done this spring. And he's put himself in a great position now going into training camp.

"

Pederson knows the same thing we all do. Bradford's OK. Maybe even good. But that's all he is. He is, however, at least a league-average quarterback with the experience and targets at his disposal to run Pederson's West Coast offense with a reasonable amount of competence.

It won't be Kelly's manic attack, but it'll do.

The bigger question in 2016 is how much better the Eagles defense might be. Pederson hired Jim Schwartz to run his defense, which means a switch from the 3-4 to Schwartz's "Wide Nine" four-man front.

The Eagles have their share of defensive stars, whether it's lineman Fletcher Cox, linebacker Jordan Hicks or safety Malcolm Jenkins. But under Kelly, they were put in an untenable position. Too many three-and-outs by the offense. Too much time on the field.

In Cox and defensive ends Connor Barwin, Vinny Curry and Brandon Graham, Schwartz would appear to have the pass-rushers who are so key to his scheme. Those pass-rushers must keep a relatively suspect secondary from being exposed like they were a year ago, when Philadelphia ranked 28th in the NFL in pass defense.

Roseman admitted to Angelo Cataldi of 94WIP Radio that the Eagles' playoff odds may not be great this year:

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I think that we’ve got to get into training camp, we’ve got to get into the season. Injuries play a huge role in what we’re doing. I think this is going to be an extremely competitive camp. I think we have some talented pieces, but I can’t tell you I’ve [sat] here and evaluated, gone through the schedule and gone ‘I think we’re going to win this game, we’re going to lose this game.’

When you’re in the offseason, you’re in building mode. And right now that’s what we’ve been in, is building and trying to get some building blocks in place so we can have a team going forward that’s competing every year.

"

But ask the Redskins how being projected to finish last in the division can work out in an NFC East that's hardly a juggernaut.

Playoff Chances: 15 percent

4. Detroit Lions

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past handful of seasons, the Detroit Lions have been all over the place. In 2011, the Lions won 10 games and made their first playoff appearance since the Clinton administration. Then came a pair of losing seasons, followed by an 11-win playoff trip in 2014.

Last year was a yo-yo all on its own. An overtime victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 6 was the only thing that prevented the Lions from entering their Week 9 bye winless. After getting destroyed in London by the Kansas City Chiefs, three assistant coaches (including offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi) were fired.

The second half of the season was a different story. Under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter—the best name in the NFL, hands down—the Lions suddenly starting clicking. By the time the year ended with a second win over the Bears, they had reeled off a 6-2 second half to finish 7-9.

There are new challenges in 2016, chief among them the retirement of the team's best player (and one of the best players in franchise history), wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

While speaking with ESPN's Michael Smith, Johnson didn't mince words—part of the reason he decided to hang it up was his belief that the Lions weren't headed anywhere this year.

"If we would've been a contender," Johnson said, "it would have been harder to let go."

As insane as it sounds, Johnson's absence could be a blessing of sorts for quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Lions. For most of Stafford's career, his M.O. was, "When in doubt, throw it in Megatron's general direction and hope for the best." With Johnson sidelined or limited for much of last season, the former Georgia Bulldog was forced to trust the offense more. And once Cooter took the reins, Stafford took off.

Yes, Johnson still topped 1,200 yards last year. But during the team's second-half surge, he topped 100 yards in a game only once. Losing him hurts, but it isn't a death knell. And while free-agent addition Marvin Jones is no Calvin Johnson, he isn't a bag of dog food either.

The Lions also have an elite pass-rusher in Ezekiel Ansah and will get top linebacker DeAndre Levy back after a lost 2015. Another one of Detroit's defensive leaders, safety Glover Quin, told Carlos Monarrez of the Detroit Free Press he knows not much is expected in Motown in 2016, which is just the way he likes it.

"You can really only get up, you know? If you don't play well, they didn't expect you to," Quin said. "If you play well, they say, 'Oh, wow, those guys are playing good!' So I kind of like to fly under the radar and just go play the games."

Do the Lions have a good chance at making the playoffs this season? No. Not in the same division as Green Bay and Minnesota squads that both made the postseason in 2015. A season-opening stretch of three road games in the first month, including trips to Indianapolis and Titletown, doesn't help.

That's what makes them a surprise choice. The possibility to be this year's Redskins—a team no one thought had a snowball's chance last season. A true Cinderella story.

The Lions aren't a great team, but they aren't truly bad either. Despite the liberal use of the word "surprise" here, it won't be a stunner if December dawns with the Lions still in the hunt.

Playoff Chances: 25 percent

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Two years ago, the Buccaneers were a dark-horse playoff pick in many circles. The team had just added a new head coach in Lovie Smith and a new quarterback in Josh McCown.

The result was a 2-14 nightmare of a season.

By virtue of that faceplant, the Buccaneers earned the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL draft, which they used on Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston. The rookie led a rebound of sorts last year, as he topped 4,000 yards passing, tailback Doug Martin finished second in the NFL in rushing and the Buccaneers improved to 6-10.

That bump wasn't enough to save Smith's job, though. Tampa Bay elevated offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach mainly because of his success developing Winston. When announcing the hire, general manager Jason Licht made it clear that he expects the upward trajectory of both player and team to continue (via Michael Stern of USA Today).

"He brings the passion and drive that will re-energize our organization and help us establish the winning culture that will help us become the championship-caliber team that our fans deserve," Licht said.

Koetter's offense shouldn't be an issue. Whether it's Winston, Martin or wide receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, the skill position talent is there.

And as FanSided's Dan Salem wrote, the Buccaneers aren't as far away from playoff contention as last year's record might indicate:

"

The Bucs lost three games by less than a touchdown last season, and seven of their ten losses came by 14 points or less. A single touchdown swing puts this team in the playoff picture and swinging half of those games in the Bucs favor has them in the Wild Card. This is not a major shift for the offense or defense. Winston alone can swing a game by a touchdown, especially if he improves as expected.

"

The key may be a defense that had its issues last year. The Buccaneers took a number of steps to bolster it in 2016, adding veterans such as defensive end Robert Ayers and youngsters such as cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and edge rusher Noah Spence.

If the Buccaneers improve as much under new defensive coordinator Mike Smith as they're expected to on offense, this team has the talent to make noise in a top-heavy NFC South. That may not be enough to unseat the Carolina Panthers, but it could easily have Tampa in the wild-card hunt as folks start roasting turkeys.

Maybe those predictions in 2014 were just a few years too early.

Playoff Chances: 30 percent 

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to 21st-century futility, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that's done a better job than the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Only twice since the turn of the century have the Jags posted a winning record and made the playoffs. Over the last five seasons (since going 8-8 in 2010), the Jaguars are a horrific 19-61. Last year's 5-11 mark was their best since 2011—when they also went 5-11.

However, when listing surprise playoff teams for Pro Football Focus, Ben Stockwell polished off his list with the AFC South team most clubs have had no problem polishing off in recent years:

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The ceiling for Jacksonville next season will come from the strides that their defense can make. They were deprived of (2015) first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr. early in the offseason, and their pass-rush struggled all year as a result. Solid returns from the likes of Davon House and Jared Odrick must be built upon if the Jaguars are to move further forwards in 2016, but if the defense can match the strides the offense made in 2015, the Jaguars will be right in the mix in a wide open AFC South.

"

Those offensive strides were significant. Quarterback Blake Bortles threw an eye-popping 35 touchdown passes in his second season. Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns emerged as one of the NFL's best one-two punches at the position. The Jaguars also made a couple of key additions in free agency in bruising running back Chris Ivory and offensive tackle Kelvin Beachum.

It's their defensive additions in 2016 that really stand out, though. In defensive back Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack, the Jaguars added two of the class of 2016's most talented defensive prospects. Combined with the return of Fowler, the Jaguars are receiving the sort of talent infusion that could spur a rapid reversal of fortune on defense.

This also isn't the NFC West we're talking about here. Nine wins won the South in 2015. Most pundits would likely rank the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts ahead of the Jaguars, but they aren't leaps and bounds better.

Granted, there are skeptics. You can count Steven Ruiz of USA Today among them, as he wrote that he's unsure if Gus Bradley is the coach who can get the Jaguars young defense over the hump:

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Bradley, who helped build the Seahawks defense, has done nothing to improve Jacksonville’s defense during his three seasons with the team. His reputation as a defensive mind is built on his work with a Seattle defense that was loaded with All-Pro talent while working under a defensive-minded coach in Pete Carroll. The Seahawks defense evolved after Bradley left, while the Jaguars remained committed to the same principles Seattle was using in 2012. Did Bradley produce Seattle’s defensive system or was he a product of it? I think we know the answer to that question.

"

One way or another, we're going to find out in 2016. The increased buzz around the Jaguars brings with it something Bradley hasn't had to deal with in his tenure—genuine expectations.

If the Jaguars underperform this season, it will likely cost Bradley his job.

Playoff Chances: 35 percent

1. Oakland Raiders

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In some respects, the Oakland Raiders fall under the "multiple Lombardis" exception to the surprise playoff teams listed here.

But it's been a long time since the Raiders were a factor in the postseason. Their last trip to the playoffs came in 2002, ending with a blowout loss by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII.

In the 13 seasons since, the Raiders are a staggering 63-145. They haven't finished above .500 once, including their seven-win 2015 campaign.

And yet, there's palpable optimism around the silver and black. They're this year's Vikings—a trendy pick among many pundits, including Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, to make it back to football's second season in 2016.

"Oakland, which finished 7-9 last season with a core of good, young players, led by quarterback Derek Carr and pass-rusher Khalil Mack, signed three key free agents to help improve a roster that is gradually getting better by the year," Prisco wrote.

That young core, which also features wideout Amari Cooper and tailback Latavius Murray, and those additions of safety Reggie Nelson, guard Kelechi Osemele and linebacker Bruce Irvin, have many singing Prisco's tune. The Raiders are no longer punching bags.

Entering his second year on the job, head coach Jack Del Rio told Prisco he isn't counting any unhatched chickens just yet:

"

I don't really worry about the hype involved. We're on a mission with what we're doing. There are certain things we're going to do. Part of it is building the culture based on the talent on our football team. And becoming a football team that can win consistently. We learned how to compete and changed the culture last year for sure. That was a good start. This year is the natural progression of continuing to do the work that is necessary. We accomplished some things, but we have a lot of work to do.

"

Del Rio is wise not to buy wholesale into the hype. The Raiders play in a division that features a pair of playoff teams from last season, including the defending Super Bowl champions. While Oakland has a young and talented roster, it also has yet to figure out how to win consistently.

The schedule sets up well to give the Raiders an opportunity to do that in 2016. Over the first half of their season, the Raiders play just one team (the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6) who made the postseason last year.

In Week 9 comes a Sunday night affair at home against the Denver Broncos, which could serve both as a litmus test and a springboard toward what would have been called laughable for most of the 21st century: a playoff trip for the Raiders.

Playoff Chances: 55 percent