Predicting the Top 10 MLB Players to Be Traded in 2016
Predictions are a lot like trades. Sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't.
But that doesn't stop teams from swinging deals or pundits and statisticians from predicting the future, so you can be sure it's not going to stop us, either. And what better prediction to make than which players will be traded between Memorial Day weekend and baseball's Aug. 1 trade deadline.
That's will be traded, not might be traded.
To be sure, this list would look significantly different two weeks from now. You won't find injured players like Oakland's Sonny Gray or Josh Reddick on the pages that follow, two players that, were they healthy, would have had a great chance to make the cut.
How did we narrow the field down to 10? While a player's performance plays a large role, personal opinion played a part as well. Case in point: Los Angeles Angels reliever Joe Smith isn't having a great season, but we still view him as one of the 10 best players that will finish the season in a different uniform.
At least for the time being.
A team's performance also plays a part in narrowing—or widening—the pool of players we have to choose from. Should a team we see as a contender fall apart, we'd have another slew of players to consider for inclusion, just as a noncontender going on a run would take some players out of the pool.
Aside from Smith (and the familiar bearded face you see above), which players shouldn't be making long-term plans? Let's take a look.
OF Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 10
2016 Stats
42 G, .263/.317/.513, 19 XBH (8 HR), 29 RBI, 11 BB, 38 K, 117 wRC+
Contract Status
$12.5 million salary in 2016; $13 million team option for 2017 ($1 million buyout)
Why Cincinnati Will Trade Him
A rebuilding team with no chance of contending has little use for a 30-year-old outfielder that's battled knee issues and carries a $13 million price tag. Rather than simply buy out the team option they hold on Jay Bruce for next year, it makes sense to get something in return.
That said, the Reds are going to have to pick up some of the money left on his deal to facilitate a trade, just as USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported they were willing to do back in February when Bruce was nearly traded to Toronto.
Why Teams Will Trade For Him
Potential suitors know they're not getting the Jay Bruce who finished 10th in the National League MVP voting in 2012 and 2013. Despite a solid start, the knee issues that plagued him in each of the past two seasons—the two worst of his nine-year career—are sure to remain a concern.
But the two-time Silver Slugger and All-Star will be one of the best sources of power available as the trade deadline nears. That he comes with an optional year of team control could make him more than a short-term rental for some.
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, Kansas City, which lost left fielder Alex Gordon to a broken wrist and has been using a platoon of Jarrod Dyson and Paulo Orlando in right field, is interested.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Chicago (AL), Kansas City, Los Angeles (AL)
1B/OF Chris Carter, Milwaukee Brewers
2 of 10
2016 Stats
45 G, .242/.297/.558, 26 XBH (13 HR), 31 RBI, 15 BB, 64 K, 119 wRC+
Contract Status
$2.5 million salary in 2016; Two years of arbitration remaining
Why Milwaukee Will Trade Him
Power is always in demand, especially when it's attached to a player on an inexpensive contract like Chris Carter. With two years of team control left after this season, Milwaukee could choose to keep him around as filler until the Brewers find their first baseman of the future.
But the chance to add additional pieces for the rebuilding process by trading him makes it an easy decision.
Why Other Teams Will Trade For Him
Whether it's at first base, designated hitter or as a pinch hitter off the bench, Carter is a cheap source of power. And there are no illusions of grandeur when it comes to the 29-year-old: He's an all-or-nothing kind of player, one that's either going to hit the ball into an outfield gap, over the outfield wall or strike out.
If a team is in a bind, they could slide Carter into an outfield corner, but he doesn't have the athleticism or range to be anything more than a defensive liability there. He's best suited to fill in at first base, serve as either a team's designated hitter or primary right-handed pinch hitter off the bench.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Chicago (AL), Cleveland, Kansas City, New York (NL), Tampa Bay, Washington
CL Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
3 of 10
2016 Stats
8 G, 0-0, 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 8 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 11 K, 6-for-6 SV
Contract Status
*$11.325 million salary in 2016; free agent after the season
Why New York Will Trade Him
With or without Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees are fringe contenders. So it makes sense for them to at least see what they could get for the flamethrower, especially when he'll be the biggest game-changing pitcher available.
What they'll find is a slew of contenders willing to pay far more than they did to acquire him from Cincinnati. We're not talking a package along the lines of what San Diego got for Craig Kimbrel or Philadelphia got for Ken Giles—he is a rental, after all—but a substantial package nonetheless.
Why Teams Will Trade For Him
With his suspension a thing of past, Chapman has gotten back to doing what he does best—making the opposition irrelevant in the ninth inning. Adding Chapman could be the difference between a team making the playoffs and missing out—or embarking on a deep run rather than dealing with an early exit.
While his 100 mph heater remains intact, per Brooks Baseball, it's not resulting in as many whiffs as it has in the past. That said, Chapman has done a masterful job of using it to set up his secondary offerings, which clock in roughly 12 mph slower than his fastball, as legitimate strikeout pitches.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Chicago (NL), Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles (NL), Seattle, San Francisco, St. Louis, Washington
*Chapman lost $1,856,557 of his 2016 salary as part of his 30-game suspension for violating MLB's domestic violence policy.
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SP Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics
4 of 10
2016 Stats
10 GS, 7-3, 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 57.2 IP, 43 H, 21 BB, 65 K
Contract Status
$6 million salary in 2016; free agent after the season
Why Oakland Will Trade Him
The A's have already gotten their money's worth from Rich Hill, with FanGraphs valuing his performance so far at $13.6 million, more than double what Oakland is paying him for the entire season.
For a noncontender that's been ravaged by injuries, keeping a 36-year-old pitcher on a one-year deal doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
His lack of past success (Hill had a career 4.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP heading into last season) and the fact that he's a short-term rental will somewhat limit the kind of return Oakland can expect, but Hill is going to be one of the most sought-after starters available, which could result in a bidding war.
Why Teams Would Trade For Him
Nearly every contender that needs another starter—which is nearly every contender—can fit Hill's rather negligible remaining salary into their budget for this season.
Hill's performance makes it far easier for a team to justify moving prospects for a player that had logged 100 innings in a big league season only once since 2005. He leads the American League in ERA (2.18), is tied for second in wins (seven), seventh in strikeouts (65), 10th in WHIP (1.11) and, per ESPN, tied for seventh in quality starts (seven).
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (AL), Chicago (NL), Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, St. Louis
C Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers
5 of 10
2016 Stats
44 G, .275/.341/.450, 15 XBH (6 HR), 17 RBI, 15 BB, 35 K, 110 wRC+
Contract Status
$4 million salary in 2016; $5.25 million team option for 2017 ($250,000 buyout)
Why Milwaukee Will Trade Him
How's this for a reason: Jonathan Lucroy doesn't want to be in Milwaukee.
He told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt in January:
"Yeah, absolutely. I want to win. It's not guaranteed that I'm going to win if I am traded. But I'm going to be a 30-year-old catcher [in June]. I can't put numbers on how much longer I'm going to play, but as players we want to win. I don't care about the money; I just want to win. That's the bottom line.
"
While the Brewers probably could have gotten a bigger return for Lucroy last winter, Milwaukee will still be able to command an impressive haul in exchange for the former All-Star.
Why Other Teams Will Trade For Him
Solid offensively and on a contract that couldn't be more team-friendly, Lucroy could be a target of contenders and noncontenders alike.
Lucroy's pitch-framing hasn't been elite since 2014, but he remains lethal when it comes to controlling the opposition's running game. The 29-year-old has caught 40 percent of would-be base-stealers, 7 percent above the league average and among the league leaders, per ESPN.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Houston, Tampa Bay, Texas
SP/RP Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres
6 of 10
2016 Stats
9 GS, 4-4, 1.70 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 53 IP, 30 H, 25 BB, 60 K
Contract Status
$1.35 million salary in 2016; two years of arbitration remaining
Why San Diego Will Trade Him
Drew Pomeranz is throwing the ball as well as he ever has. While this could be a sign that the former consensus top 100 prospect has turned a corner and taken the next step in his development, San Diego will ultimately decide that's a question for another team to find the answer to.
There's nothing wrong with selling high on a player, especially in a market that isn't deep with quality starters.
Why Other Teams Will Trade For Him
While most teams would trade for Pomeranz with the intention of keeping him as a starter, the 27-year-old has had prior success in the bullpen, so he could theoretically be used as a setup man or in long relief.
The biggest risk involved in trading for Pomeranz might be that he's out of minor league options, so he can't be stashed at Triple-A if he were to significantly regress in his new home. But it's not going to require a farm-system-crushing package of talent to acquire him, making it a risk worth taking.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (AL), Detroit, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, St. Louis
SP James Shields, San Diego Padres
7 of 10
2016 Stats
10 GS, 2-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 64.2 IP, 61 H, 23 BB, 56 K
Contract Status
$21 million salary 2016-2018; $16 million team option for 2019 ($2 million buyout); has three days following 2016 World Series to opt out of deal.
Why San Diego Will Trade Him
Even with a dearth of quality starting pitching slated to hit free agency after the season, James Shields isn't about to opt out of his deal. There isn't a team in baseball that would pay him what the Padres signed him for. And because of that, San Diego will have to pick up a large chunk of what he's owed to get a trade done.
While his contract becomes less burdensome with each passing year, Shields, in his age-34 season, becomes another year older, further devaluing his stock. Eating some money in order to procure a decent return on what has been a failed marriage makes the most sense for San Diego.
Why Other Teams Will Trade for Him
When you get past his age and contract, Shields remains a durable, reliable workhorse, with a MLB-leading nine consecutive 200-inning seasons. There isn't a contender that couldn't use a pitcher like that in the middle of their rotation.
While he hasn't been nearly as effective since joining the Padres, a move back to the American League—where Shields has had the most success, spent the bulk of his career and, perhaps, feels the most comfortable—could see an uptick in his performance on the mound.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (AL), Detroit, St. Louis
RP Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels
8 of 10
2016 Stats
22 G, 1-3, 4.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 23 IP, 20 H, 7 BB, 15 K, 6-for-8 SV
Contract Status
$5.25 million salary in 2016; free agent after the season
Why Los Angeles Will Trade Him
The Angels would be selling low on Joe Smith, who up until this season has consistently been one of the better setup men in baseball.
But there's no guarantee they'd re-sign him after what is shaping up to be a lost season. With a farm system that is largely devoid of talent, any prospect(s) they bring back would be worthwhile.
Why Other Teams Will Trade For Him
Smith's unorthodox sidearm delivery isn't something a lot of batters are familiar with—especially in the National League—and that alone could make him more effective elsewhere than he's been in Los Angeles.
That he's not having a great year will help to keep Los Angeles' asking price down, making him a less expensive acquisition than some of the other relievers that will be on the move at the trade deadline.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Arizona, Detroit, Los Angeles (NL), Pittsburgh, Texas, Washington
SP Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
9 of 10
2016 Stats
10 GS, 1-4, 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 63 IP, 48 H, 17 BB, 59 K
Contract Status
$3.3 million salary in 2016; due $25.3 million through 2019; $12 million team option ($1 million buyout) in 2020
Why Atlanta Will Trade Him
Experienced 25-year-old starters that have already appeared in an All-Star Game, still have some upside and are signed to incredibly team-friendly deals don't become available often, if ever.
While Atlanta could certainly hang on to Julio Teheran as the centerpiece of its current (and future) rotation, the Braves have lots of holes. Trading him would go a long way toward filling them.
Why Other Teams Will Trade For Him
Did we mention the age, team-friendly contract and upside?
There's not a team in baseball that wouldn't love to add a controllable talent like Teheran—who seems to be back on track after a rough 2015 and once again looks like one of baseball's best young starters—to their rotation.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Baltimore, Boston, Chicago (AL), Chicago (NL), Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis
RP Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
10 of 10
2016 Stats
19 G, 1-0, 1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 19.2 IP, 14 H, 7 BB, 29 K, 5-for-6 SV
Contract Status
$897,500 salary in 2016; two years of arbitration remaining
Why Atlanta Will Trade Him
Like Julio Teheran, 25-year-old Arodys Vizcaino is young enough to be a part of the future in Atlanta.
But while the team wants to be competitive as it enters a new stadium in 2017, contenders are always looking to bolster their bullpens. The chance to add multiple pieces in exchange for Vizcaino is an opportunity the Braves simply can't afford to pass up.
Why Other Teams Will Trade For Him
Effective, controllable for two more years and with a salary that isn't going to get absurdly out of hand, teams in contention and those looking to revamp their bullpens for a run in 2017 are sure to have interest.
He's tough on batters from both sides of the plate, especially lefties, does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and knows how to make batters swing and miss, averaging a gaudy 13.3 strikeouts per nine on the season.
Speculative Potential Landing Spots
Arizona, Detroit, Los Angeles (NL), Pittsburgh, Texas, Washington
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of May 26. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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