Crucial MLB Questions Left Unanswered After Season's First 2 Months
It seems as if Opening Day was only a few weeks ago, but here we sit, with Memorial Day fast approaching and nearly two months of baseball's regular season already behind us. Time flies, whether you're having fun or not.
While there's lots of baseball left to be played, we've already gotten the answers to some of the questions we had heading into the season. David Ortiz is doing some serious damage as he takes his final lap around the majors, Byron Buxton still isn't ready for prime time, and performance-enhancing drugs are still an issue, albeit not on the same scale they used to be.
But there are still plenty of queries that remain—and it might be weeks, if not months before we get the answers we seek.
Will Baseball's Labor Peace Continue?
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Back in 1994, Pedro Martinez and the Montreal Expos were the best team in all the land; Pedro's older brother, Ramon, had more wins (12) than his Hall of Fame sibling (11); and Tony Clark, the current head of the MLB Players' Association, had yet to make his MLB debut.
That was the last time Major League Baseball had to deal with a work stoppage. With the collective bargaining agreement between the league and union set to expire December 1, can they avoid another one? It's the most crucial unanswered question we've got.
We'll take a lack of news about the state of negotiations, which began in mid-March, as a good sign. But things can get contentious, and it doesn't take much for negotiations to break down.
That's especially true when you're dealing with hot-button topics like revenue sharing, the qualifying-offer system and a team's ability to control a player's service time. Lest we forget, the union was none too happy about the Kris Bryant situation last season, despite Bryant not yet being a member.
A work stoppage, whether it be a lockout by the owners or a strike by the players, wouldn't be a death blow to the game, which has come a long way in the 21 years of labor peace it's enjoyed.
That said, it wouldn't be a good thing for the game or its image, and you'd like to believe that both Clark and MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, who has been involved in negotiations before as former commissioner Bud Selig's right-hand man, are smart enough to realize that.
But until the ink has dried on a new collective bargaining agreement, anything is possible.
What's Wrong with Matt Harvey?
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While Thor (Noah Syndergaard) and the DeGrominator (Jacob deGrom) continue to keep the streets of Gotham safe, things just aren't the same without the Dark Knight (Matt Harvey) leading the way for the New York Mets.
It's not for a lack of effort, as Harvey has made each of his scheduled starts and balked at the chance to skip his next one. "For me, taking time off isn't going to do anything," he told ESPN.com's Adam Rubin. "It's finding it on the mound. I'm not a quitter. I'm not going to just quit and put the ball down. It's a fight."
With a 6.08 ERA and 1.69 WHIP through 10 starts—only three of them quality outings—Harvey has been more punching bag than fighter. While the velocity on his fastball is down nearly two miles per hour, per Brooks Baseball, his heater still sits around 95 mph. That's fast enough to keep batters on their toes.
His agent, Scott Boras, the Alfred of the Dark Knight's inner circle, agrees with that sentiment.
"Look at his fastball velocity. He's still got his velocity," Boras told Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. "[The issue is] command. We're dealing with unknowns about why he's not locating. All I can tell you is that with Tommy John guys there are times they don't locate. Take a look at [Stephen] Strasburg last year."
Could this all be an unexpected result of the Tommy John surgery that cost Harvey the entire 2014 season? Is it a mental or physical issue? Or is there something else at play nobody's thought of yet?
Whatever the reason, the Mets need Harvey pitching like himself if they're going to mount a successful defense of their division crown and National League pennant.
Will Philadelphia Finally Cut Ties with Ryan Howard?
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We're way past the time that Philadelphia should have gotten rid of Ryan Howard, and while it's easy to sit here and say the Phillies have to get rid of their once-mighty slugger, the fact is that they don't.
When the regular season ends, the Phillies will give Howard a $10 million parting gift, buying out the team option they hold for 2017 and ending what was once a mutually beneficial relationship. But it's been years since that was the case, and it's why ESPN.com's David Schoenfield believes the Phillies should release him:
"If you want to give him a chance to save face and retire -- as Ken Griffey Jr. did when he walked away early in 2010 while hitting .184 -- sure, give Howard the opportunity. If Howard doesn't want to give up what's left of his $25 million salary (plus a $10 million buyout for 2017), give him a handshake and his walking papers.
"
Nobody would blame Howard for hanging around to collect his paycheck—that's a lot of money he'd be leaving on the table. And Howard knows that even if another team were to have interest in his services, it'd be on a deal for the MLB minimum, $507,500.
But the idea that the Phillies somehow owe it to Howard to let him finish out his contract is just flat-out wrong. They owe it to their fans—and to the other 24 players on the active roster—to put the best possible team on the field, especially with the team's surprisingly hot start to the season.
Keeping Howard around doesn't help them accomplish that.
Which brings us to our next question...
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Are the Phillies for Real?
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Is it likely that Philadelphia will still be in contention as the trade deadline nears? Probably not. But the Phillies weren't supposed to be in contention on Memorial Day, either. And while he's not counting on it, general manager Matt Klentak is prepared to do what's necessary to keep the team there if they are.
"There will be nobody happier than me if we are still in playoff contention in July, and if that happens we're going to do everything we can to help this team improve and get better and make a run at it," Klentak told CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury last week.
But Klentak is also a realist, and he knows that the Phillies, despite their early-season success, are in the midst of a rebuilding process. "The job of a general manager is to balance both the short and the long term and I need be cognizant that right now we're not even a quarter of the way through the season."
With young starters Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez both expected to be working under innings limits and an offense that's struggled to put runs on the board, Philadelphia simply may not have enough firepower to hang in the race for long.
Is There Going to Be a Sale in the Bronx?
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The New York Yankees head into Wednesday's action with a .500 record (22-22) and only 5.5 games behind Boston for first place in the AL East. It's far too early to write off the Bronx Bombers, who have uncharacteristically been outscored by 13 runs thus far.
That hasn't stopped the speculation from swirling about the team's plans between now and late July. Specifically, their plans for All-Star relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, All-Star catcher Brian McCann, All-Star outfielder Brett Gardner and future Hall of Fame inductee Carlos Beltran.
Could some—or all—of those players be wearing a different uniform come August?
Obviously, where the team finds itself in the standings will play a large role in dictating the moves they make, or don't make, as the trade deadline nears. While George Steinbrenner is no longer around, the yearly expectations he set for the franchise—World Series or bust—remain in place.
But this year's edition may not be capable of meeting those expectations, as the 2016 Yankees are a team in flux, one trying to rebuild on the fly while remaining competitive. Getting younger, more athletic and less expensive are clearly goals the team is trying to achieve.
If they weren't, the Yankees would have been players for the likes of Zack Greinke and David Price last winter. Instead, they emerged from the offseason as the only team in baseball to not sign a free agent to a major league deal.
That said, being close to a playoff spot may not be enough to keep the Yankees from selling off some high-profile veteran pieces as the trade deadline approaches.
Will Julio Urias Pitch in the Majors This Year?
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It sure looked like this question was going to be answered a few weeks ago, when Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times that 19-year-old pitching prospect Julio Urias was "definitely at the top of the list" when it came to possible internal options to bolster Los Angeles' bullpen.
But baseball's most ballyhooed pitching prospect remains with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and the plan, as Urias' agent, Scott Boras, recently explained to Shaikin's colleague, Dylan Hernandez, is for the teen to see "only a modest increase" over the 80.1 innings he threw last year.
That leaves plenty of room for speculation as to what the number both sides have in mind is, but with 41 innings under his belt already in 2016, it's fair to say that Urias might only have another 60 to 80 innings left in the tank. If that's the case, then pitching out of the big league bullpen makes a lot of sense.
He wouldn't be the first highly touted pitching prospect to break into the big leagues that way. David Price and Adam Wainwright, among others, began their big league careers in relief as a way to limit their workloads.
But that doesn't mean Urias will—or should—follow their lead.
"The Dodgers' priority should be to prepare Urias to be part of their rotation next year," Hernandez wrote Tuesday. "The best way to do that would be to have him continue to start games in Triple-A, not pitch in relief in the major leagues."
Will what's best for the player trump what's best for the team, one that is under immense pressure to not only win their division but embark on a deep, successful playoff run?
Are the Brewers Going to Trade Jonathan Lucroy?
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Jonathan Lucroy let it be known in January that he had no interest in playing for a rebuilding team, telling Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that a trade would probably be the best thing for him and the Milwaukee Brewers.
"I want to win and I don't see us winning in the foreseeable future," Lucroy said. "I want to go to a World Series. That's what all players want. Rebuilding is not a lot of fun for any veteran guy."
The 29-year-old has shown no ill effects from a concussion that cost him two weeks of the regular season last year, hitting .279 with 15 extra-base hits (six home runs), 17 RBI and an OPS of .804 while still providing excellent defense and pitch framing behind the plate, per Baseball Prospectus.
It's not often that a team can land an experienced, All-Star-caliber backstop still in the prime of his career, much less one who's under team control through 2017 for less than $10 million. If the Brewers make him available, it's going to take a significant package of young, controllable talent to pry him loose.
Milwaukee doesn't have to trade Lucroy, of course, as his team-friendly contract isn't a major strain on the team's payroll. But the Brewers aren't contending anytime soon, so there's a strong case to be made for them to move Lucroy sooner rather than later, guarding against a possible injury.
Can the Houston Astros Recover from a Miserable Start? Will They Sell?
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After emerging from its rebuilding process a year early in 2015, nearly winning the AL West and taking the eventual World Series champions, Kansas City, to five games in the American League Division Series, big things were expected in Houston this season.
Perhaps under the weight of those expectations, the Astros fell flat out of the gate, posting an April record of 7-17 that found them seven games back of the division lead. But that wasn't enough to discourage manager A.J. Hinch about his team's chances of contending.
"We have a good team. We're going to hold our chests out," Hinch told USA Today's Jorge L. Ortiz at the beginning of May. "We're going to have to be dealt with by a lot of teams. Certainly we haven't put ourselves in a terrific position at the end of April, but that's why it's a six-month season and not a one-month trial."
Nearly a month later, the Astros still find themselves 10 games under .500 (18-28) and nearly 10 games out of first place.
Aside from All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve, the offense has struggled to get going, while the pitching staff continues to struggle, with the team's two best starters—reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh—both heading into Memorial Day with an ERA over 5.00.
Despite using much of their prospect capital to add pieces last year and in the offseason (Mike Fiers, Ken Giles and Carlos Gomez), the Astros still have a bunch of prospects who are close to contributing. If they continue to struggle, could we see some incumbents get traded to make room for those prospects?
It's going to be fascinating to see what transpires at Minute Maid Park over the next few months, for the Astros—even if they're out of the playoff picture—could still have a huge impact on the playoff race.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of May 24. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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