Selecting the 2016 MLB 1st-Quarter All-Breakout Team
There are countless reasons why some MLB players take time to finally reach their potential and deliver a breakout season. We're talking about the kind of campaign that makes us change the way we look at them.
It could be a change of scenery or a managerial change that leads to something finally clicking. It could be a mechanical or mental adjustment. It could be that a player decided to finally ditch the nasty pair of lucky socks he's had since high school and put a fresh pair on his feet.
Whatever the reason, every regular season delivers a number of breakout performances, and this year is no different. While it's true that most All-Breakout teams are composed of younger players, some veterans have reached new heights and are worthy of inclusion as well.
As for how we went about determining who got a starting nod at each position, much of the decision-making was left to a player's individual numbers. How far above his previous career norms he's playing was a big factor, but expectations and reputation played a part as well.
In situations where the numbers were so close there wasn't a clear choice, personal preference entered into the equation.
For example, let's say we've got two players battling it out for a roster spot at shortstop. One is a highly touted 24-year-old prospect, the other a 28-year-old whose career, thus far, has been relatively unimpressive. Like most people, we love an underdog and might lean toward the 28-year-old.
Then again, maybe we wouldn't.
Catcher: Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks
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2016 Stats: 32 G, .290 BA, .836 OPS, 13 XBH (7 HR), 20 RBI, 8 BB, 32 K, 2-for-2 SB
Welington Castillo's breakout actually began last season, when he had 31 extra-base hits (17 home runs), 50 RBI and a .813 OPS in 80 games for Arizona, who acquired him from Seattle only weeks after the Mariners had struck a deal with the Chicago Cubs for the then-28-year-old catcher.
Castillo's head start from last season was almost reason enough to hand this spot to Miami's J.T. Realmuto.
However, Castillo has continued to build upon his strong end to the 2015 campaign. A career .251 hitter entering the 2016 season, he's hitting for average and has increased his power output, too. He's on pace to crack the 20-home run mark for the first time and set new career highs in just about every possible category.
"The offense he provides is pretty special,'' Arizona manager Chip Hale told MLB.com's Phil Rogers. "But he gives us leadership, too. He's been good about that stuff. He's been a very, very big acquisition for us.''
How special? Castillo's numbers this season are superior to those from a pair of perennial All-Star catchers, San Francisco's Buster Posey (.274 BA, .763 OPS) and Kansas City's Salvador Perez (.237 BA, .725 OPS).
Honorable Mention: J.T. Realmuto (MIA)
First Base: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
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2016 Stats: 40 G, .327 BA, .941 OPS, 17 XBH (8 HR), 20 RBI, 15 BB, 28 K, 3-for-4 SB
The battle between Kansas City's Eric Hosmer and San Francisco's Brandon Belt for this spot was fierce, and a coin flip was seriously considered as a way to declare a winner. Thankfully, it didn't come down to that.
Instead, the tie-breaker came down to comparing their career triple-slash lines entering the season with their performances entering play Thursday to see which first baseman had the biggest leap in production. Surprisingly, it was heavily lopsided in one player's favor.
| Belt | +30 | +82 | +37 | +119 |
| Hosmer | +47 | +52 | +126 | +178 |
Hosmer has a far bigger increase in all categories except on-base percentage, where Belt holds a 30-point edge. That's more than enough to give the current world champion the edge over a former one.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Belt (SF)
Second Base: Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
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2016 Stats: 40 G, .397 BA, 1.065 OPS, 22 XBH (6 HR), 27 RBI, 9 BB, 17 K, 1-for-2 SB
Like Welington Castillo, Daniel Murphy's breakout began last year, when he put the New York Mets on his back and went deep seven times—six of them coming in consecutive games—en route to being named the Most Valuable Player of the National League Championship Series.
Unlike Castillo, we've known that Murphy could hit for a while, as he carried a career .288 batting average into the regular season, his first as a member of the Washington Nationals. Those things made it difficult to select Murphy for this All-Breakout team.
However, it's impossible to ignore what he's done.
While his five home runs don't jump off the page, Murphy is on track to set new career bests in pretty much every statistical category, including home runs (24), RBI (107), hits (237), doubles (55) and triples (eight). Batting average and OPS belong on that list as well.
Murphy might not be a traditional breakout player, but there's no disputing that he's a completely different player than he was heading into last year's playoffs.
Honorable Mention: Derek Dietrich (MIA)
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Shortstop: Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals
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2016 Stats: 38 G, .372 BA, 1.039 OPS, 21 XBH (6 HR), 21 RBI, 7 BB, 12 K, 1-for-2 SB
Could Jhonny Peralta become the next Wally Pipp? While Aledmys Diaz isn't the next coming of Lou Gehrig, the way he's been swinging the bat makes it a question that shouldn't be completely dismissed.
Thrust into action after injuries sidelined Peralta and Ruben Tejada, the two shortstops ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, the 25-year-old Diaz has been one of baseball's most productive hitters, regardless of position.
Entering play Thursday, Diaz sits second in the majors in batting average, OPS and adjusted offense (177 wRC+), third in slugging percentage (.648) and is one of 14 qualified batters with an on-base percentage above .400 (.403).
While the other contenders for the shortstop spot can make strong cases, none of them hold a candle to Diaz.
Honorable Mention: Trevor Story (COL)
Third Base: Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers
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2016 Stats: 38 G, .350 BA, .977 OPS, 18 XBH (8 HR), 30 RBI, 8 BB, 33 K, 1-for-1 SB
If you were walking around Comerica Park around this time last year, it wouldn't have been surprising to hear Detroit Tigers fans comparing third baseman Nick Castellanos with Eric Munson. Like Castellanos, Munson was once a highly touted prospect who never came close to meeting the hype.
This year, the only time you'll hear their names in the same sentence is when fans celebrate that Castellanos didn't become the next Munson, a career .214 hitter who last played in 2011.
Detroit's 24-year-old third baseman, who entered play Thursday leading the American League in batting average, has kept pace with Baltimore's Manny Machado in adjusted offense and leads the Tigers in multiple categories, including RBI, slugging percentage (.677) and OPS.
Honorable Mention: Jake Lamb (ARI); Travis Shaw (BOS)
Left Field: Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
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2016 Stats: 40 G, .322 BA, .955 OPS, 19 XBH (5 HR), 20 RBI, 24 BB, 29 K, 3-for-5 SB
Like Nick Castellanos, Christian Yelich was considered a big-time prospect not so long ago. But unlike Castellanos, Yelich has had fairly consistent success since making his MLB debut in 2012, carrying a career .290/.365/.406 triple-slash line into the regular season.
So it's not really a surprise to see him take the next step in his development. As FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan recently wrote, "People everywhere kind of saw this coming."
Ninth in the National League in both batting average and OPS heading into Thursday's games, Yelich is walking more and striking out less than he ever has before. In fact, he's walking nearly as much as he strikes out, with 24 free passes and 29 Ks on the year.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Yelich's first-quarter performance is that he's surpassed Giancarlo Stanton as Miami's best everyday player.
Honorable Mention: Starling Marte (PIT); Michael Saunders (TOR)
Center Field: Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox
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2016 Stats: 40 G, .338 BA, .997 OPS, 21 XBH (7 HR), 32 RBI, 11 BB, 33 K, 2-for-2 SB
You wouldn't be wrong to say Jackie Bradley Jr. has relied on a fair amount of luck for his breakout. His .396 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), which is nearly 100 points higher than his .307 career mark, indicates as much.
But you'd also be shortchanging Boston's 26-year-old center fielder.
"This is as good as I've ever seen him," one National League scout who had just finished watching the Red Sox recently told Bleacher Report's Danny Knobler. "In the past, he's looked out of sync. Now he seems to have gotten the rhythm between his upper and lower body in sync. He seems to be seeing the ball better. And he's aggressive early in counts."
Bradley has been more aggressive, swinging at a higher percentage of pitches than he ever has before. Despite that, he's managed to improve his contact rate while drastically cutting his strikeout rate. If this were the same old JBJ, he'd have a drop in contact and an increase in whiffs with a more aggressive approach.
Come season's end, he may not sit among the league leaders in batting average or OPS as he does now, but he has definitely become something more than a glove-first center fielder.
Honorable Mention: Odubel Herrera (PHI); Joc Pederson (LAD)
Right Field: Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2016 Stats: 40 G, .308 BA, .953 OPS, 23 XBH (5 HR), 22 RBI, 25 BB, 30 K, 5-for-8 SB
If you subscribe to the theory that signing a contract extension puts a player at ease and helps his performance improve, you need to go find Gregory Polanco's teammate, Starling Marte, and say thanks.
For it was Marte, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, who advised Polanco to sign a five-year, $35 million extension with Pittsburgh just before the season began. “[Marte] always says, it’s good for you because [you’re] insured for life and you play more confident,” Polanco told Brink.
Polanco is living proof of that.
The 24-year-old is putting up the best numbers of his young career, thanks in part to a far more patient approach at the plate. Polanco has the National League's 10th-highest on-base percentage (.405) and, not coincidentally, the senior circuit's 10th-highest walk total (25).
He's chasing fewer pitches and making more hard contact, hitting the ball on a line more and on the ground less. While his .355 BABIP is high, it's not absurdly higher than his career mark (.305). So while some regression is to be expected, this could be the year Polanco puts together his first .300-20-100 season.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Drury (ARI); Steven Souza Jr. (TB)
Designated Hitter: Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles
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2016 Stats: 398 G, .309 BA, .952 OPS, 18 XBH (12 HR), 29 RBI, 10 BB, 42 K, 1-for-1 SB
While Mark Trumbo's early season success in Baltimore still seems like a mirage, it'd be disingenuous not to include the 30-year-old slugger on this All-Breakout Team. It's all about numbers, after all, and Trumbo has some of the best throughout the season's first quarter.
Trumbo leads the American League in home runs, is sixth in slugging percentage (.595), seventh in OPS (.952) and ninth in RBI (29). He's become more than the all-or-nothing slugger he was over the first six years of his career, hitting for average and getting on base consistently.
Surprisingly enough, Oriole Park at Camden Yards hasn't had quite the impact on Trumbo's numbers as you'd think. While his numbers at home are strong (.292 BA, .858 OPS), he's been even better away from Baltimore's Inner Harbor, hitting .322 with a robust 1.090 OPS on the road.
Honorable Mention: Byung-ho Park (MIN)
Starting Pitcher: Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
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2016 Stats: 8 GS, 5-2, 1.54 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 52.2 IP, 41 H, 11 BB, 47 K
After years of being lost in Chris Sale's shadow, Jose Quintana has finally arrived.
Chicago's No. 2 starter leads the American League in ERA, trailing only the superhuman Jake Arrieta (1.29) for the top spot in all of baseball, while his 0.99 WHIP is good enough to be among the game's 10 lowest.
A slight increase in velocity combined with more reliance on his four-seam fastball and sinker, per Brooks Baseball, is serving Quintana well. His changeup has transformed into a far more effective strikeout pitch than it's been in the past.
While other starters have been impressive—especially Philadelphia's pair of young hurlers, Aaron Nola and Vincent Velasquez—none have been quite as impressive as Quintana, who has been one of the five best pitchers in baseball so far.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola (PHI); Drew Pomeranz (SD); Danny Salazar (CLE); Steven Wright (BOS); Vincent Velasquez (PHI)
Relief Pitcher: Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
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2016 Stats: 16 G, 1-1, 1.56 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 17.1 IP, 11 H, 4 BB, 24 K, 10-for-10 SV
With Jake McGee in Colorado and Brad Boxberger on the shelf, someone had to close games in Tampa Bay. It turns out that Alex Colome was up for the challenge.
The 27-year-old, who spent most of his big league career bouncing between the rotation and bullpen and began the season as part of a closer-by-committee approach, has taken sole control of the ninth inning for the Rays.
He's converted all 10 of his save opportunities while averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. With the way he's performed, it wouldn't at all be surprising to see Colome hang on to the closer's job once Boxberger returns, pushing the former All-Star into a setup role.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Barraclough (MIA); Ryan Buchter (SD); Seung Hwan Oh (STL)
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of May 19.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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