Playing Pretender or Contender with MLB's 2016 Playoff Hopefuls After 1 Month
Are you for real?
That's the question we're asking of each MLB playoff hopeful a month and change into the 2016 season.
It's too early to know for certain, of course. We've got a summer's worth of injuries, trades, hot streaks and cold spells to slog through before the postseason picture becomes clear.
But it's never too early to speculate. And we've got tools at our disposal, including stats, trends, track records and, of course, a dollop of old-fashioned gut feeling.
For our purposes, we'll define a "playoff hopeful" as any team with a winning record as of May 4 (you're in, Philadelphia Phillies) or any team that was widely expected to contend before the season, regardless of record (you're in, too, Houston Astros).
Further, we'll define "contenders" as clubs with the staying power to remain in the race deep into September and "pretenders" as squads that will fade during or before the dog days.
Finally, all the stats you see come courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Feel free to sound off with your takes in the comments, and proceed when ready.
AL West
1 of 6
Seattle Mariners (Record as of May 4: 16-11)
After winning 87 games and just missing the playoffs in 2014, the Mariners backslid to a disappointing 76-86 finish last season.
Tasked with getting the franchise back on track, new general manager Jerry Dipoto opted for quantity, making mid-level additions all over the roster.
So far, so good for Seattle thanks in large part to a pitching staff that ranks second in the American League with a 3.04 ERA. The remade bullpen has been particularly stingy, holding opponents to a .170 average.
Meanwhile, second baseman Robinson Cano has jump-started the offense with nine home runs and an AL-leading 26 RBI.
The Mariners aren't a juggernaut, but they appear more than capable of competing in the wide-open AL West and quite possibly tasting the postseason for the first time since 2001.
Verdict: Contender
Texas Rangers (15-13)
The Rangers' starting pitchers are tied with the Chicago White Sox for the best ERA in the AL. And that's without former ace Yu Darvish, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery.
Darvish made a rehab start on May 2 and flashed mid-90s velocity and some nasty breaking pitches. Once he returns, he'll join left-hander Cole Hamels to form one of the more potent 1-2 combos in baseball.
There are red flags on offense, including Prince Fielder, who is hitting a paltry .202. But the Rangers are still sitting in the middle of the pack in runs scored and team batting average thanks to strong contributions from the likes of shortstop Elvis Andrus and rookie outfielder Nomar Mazara.
Assuming the bats pick it up and the pitching holds strong with the addition of Darvish, there's no reason Texas can't defend its division title.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Angels (13-15)
Despite the presence of Mike Trout in the everyday lineup, the Angels rank 21st in baseball in runs scored. Albert Pujols, Trout's ostensible protection, is hitting .198 with a .666 OPS, which feels like a too-obvious bad omen.
The back end of the rotation, likewise, has struggled, with Matt Shoemaker and Jered Weaver coughing up 38 earned runs in 49 innings.
On Sunday, Shoemaker was demoted to Triple-A and will likely stay there at least until the club needs a fifth starter again on May 14, per Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times.
"We are certainly counting on Matt to pitch to his potential," manager Mike Scioscia said, per Moura. "It hasn't been there yet."
Scioscia may as well have been talking about the entire Halos franchise, which is hampered by a bloated payroll and barren farm system and seems as likely to sink under .500 as it is to match last year's 85-win, third-place finish.
Verdict: Pretender
Houston Astros (10-18)
Last season, Houston went from emerging also-ran to full-fledged contender, leading the division for most of the season before claiming a wild-card slot and pushing the Kansas City Royals to five games in the American League Division Series.
In 2016, the 'Stros came in as nominal division favorites. Instead, they've played like bottom-dwellers.
The biggest problem has been the pitching staff, which ranks dead last in the Junior Circuit with a 5.21 ERA.
Ace and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel has looked particularly mortal, yielding 40 hits and 21 earned runs in 37 innings.
The offense hasn't completely clicked, either, though it does rank fourth in the AL with a .739 OPS. And Houston has won three of its last four games, including a 16-4 drubbing of the Minnesota Twins Wednesday.
Ultimately, the team may need to add pitching to build on last year's success. Fortunately, as ESPN.com's Jim Bowden noted, "the Astros still have one of the strongest and best farm systems in baseball—thanks in no small part to last year's incredible draft—so they do have the trade pieces to trade for a good starter."
Verdict: Contender
Non-Contender(s): Oakland A's
AL Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox (19-9)
Remember the spring training crisis in the White Sox clubhouse that was set off by the sudden retirement of veteran Adam LaRoche and led to ace Chris Sale publicly bashing executive Ken Williams?
Neither do the White Sox.
Even as their North Side counterparts grab headlines, the Sox are emerging as one of the most surprising success stories of 2016.
They've got the best ERA in the AL thanks to a rotation fronted by the deadly southpaw twosome of Sale and Jose Quintana and a reborn Mat Latos.
And they've got the best record in the American League despite a tough April schedule that saw them play 16 of 25 games on the road.
"I'm extremely impressed with the way we've gotten through this stretch, not just from a won-loss record standpoint, which obviously we’re thrilled with, but really from a competitiveness standpoint, and how everyone in that locker room has gone about their business," general manager Rick Hahn said, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.
The AL Central is a competitive division, and the White Sox offense is middle-of-the-pack. But pitching plays, and a club many were writing off in spring suddenly looks like a factor.
Verdict: Contender
Detroit Tigers (14-12)
The Detroit Tigers have clawed their way above .500 thanks to an offense that ranks second in the AL with a .268 average and third with a .746 OPS.
The pitching, on the other hand, is less ferocious. Free-agent addition Jordan Zimmermann has been a revelation, posting a 0.55 ERA through 33 innings.
The rest of the rotation, however, including veterans Justin Verlander (6.49 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (5.87 ERA), has mostly been a mess.
On the other hand, the bullpen—a weakness last season—sports a 2.56 ERA, fourth-best in baseball.
If the Tigers can get more out of their starting five and keep veteran bats such as Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez healthy, they could easily return to October and erase the memory of 2015's last-place finish.
Verdict: Contender
Kansas City Royals (14-13)
The defending champs haven't exactly streaked out of the gate. Instead, they're hanging around .500 and have lost seven of their last nine.
Further, the Royals are tied for 26th in baseball in runs scored despite returning virtually the same talented, balanced lineup that hoisted the Commissioner's Trophy and bathed in champagne last November.
The good news is guys like Lorenzo Cain (.232 average) and Alex Gordon (.211) are sure to pick it up. And the pitching staff has been solid, with a big boost from free-agent signee Ian Kennedy (2.61 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 31 innings).
Above all, with two consecutive pennants under their belt, the Royals have the pedigree not to panic. And with this much talent on the roster, they shouldn't.
Verdict: Contender
Cleveland Indians (12-12)
The Indians sit in the bottom third in baseball in runs scored but are hanging around thanks to their pitching.
Ace Corey Kluber has fanned 42 in 43 innings, while Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco both sport ERAs under 3.00.
Carrasco, unfortunately, landed on the disabled list in late April with a hamstring injury that could put him out for a month or more.
At the same time, the Tribe welcomed back All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley, who was recovering from shoulder surgery, which should help the offense tremendously.
Verdict: Contender
Minnesota Twins (8-20)
The Twins emerged earlier than expected in 2015 behind rookie skipper Paul Molitor and a gaggle of young talent. Now, they look like 2016's biggest regression candidate.
After dropping six of its last seven, Minnesota sports the worst record in the American League. The Twinkies are 19th in batting average, 25th in runs scored and 22nd in ERA. Simply put, they haven't done anything particularly well.
Perhaps no player typified the Twins' struggles better than touted rookie Byron Buxton, who posted a .156/.208/.289 slash line in 17 games before being demoted to Triple-A.
Buxton could still break through, and so could Minnesota. In a crowded division, though, this looks like the club that'll take a few steps back.
Verdict: Pretender
Non-Contender(s): None
AL East
3 of 6
Boston Red Sox (16-11)
Boosted by a strong start to David Ortiz's swan-song season, the continued emergence of Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts and Travis Shaw filling the Pablo Sandoval-sized hole at third base, the Red Sox offense is humming.
Boston leads the American League in runs scored, batting average and OPS. And while the starting pitching has faltered at times, with free-agent ace David Price toting a 6.14 ERA, the bullpen has been largely solid.
Price still has bat-missing stuff, as his 49 strikeouts in 36.2 innings attest. So even that isn't an area of grave concern for the revamped Red Sox, who are making president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski look good.
Verdict: Contender
Baltimore Orioles (15-11)
If not for the White Sox's hot start, the Orioles would be the AL's biggest revelation.
It seems funny to say that about a club that won the division in 2014, but the O's weren't on many preseason radars.
They are now after muscling their way into the conversation with 36 home runs, seventh-most in baseball, and a shutdown bullpen.
There are questions, including at the back end of the rotation. But look for Baltimore and its flock of mashers to keep blasting balls over the fence and to remain perched in the postseason picture deep into the summer, and to possibly look for pitching help at the trade deadline.
Verdict: Contender
Toronto Blue Jays (14-15)
Speaking of potent offenses, that was the Blue Jays' calling card last year as they won the division and advanced to the American League Championship Series.
So far in 2016, the Jays bats have been less fearsome. They rank 16th in OPS and are tied for 16th in runs scored. And key contributors, including Jose Bautista (.222 average) and Troy Tulowitzki (.160), are scuffling.
Given their track record, it's safe to assume Toronto's hitters will wake up. Even if they don't match last season's crazy output, they figure to be far more productive than they've been.
Despite the loss of Price, the pitching has been above-average; Jays starters rank fourth in the AL with a 3.53 ERA.
Verdict: Contender
Tampa Bay Rays (12-14)
The formula for Tampa Bay was always going to be pitching and defense. Unfortunately, ace Chris Archer has wobbled to the tune of a 5.01 ERA, despite flashing his usual strikeout stuff.
Archer should be fine. At the very least, he's looked more like his old self in his last couple of starts. And remember, Alex Cobb is set to return at some point from Tommy John surgery. This is still the throw-ball, catch-ball club we expected.
But Tampa Bay will need to score to remain competitive, and thus far, this team has plated the third-fewest runs in baseball despite cracking 34 home runs, tied with Toronto and the Washington Nationals for eighth-most.
The Rays are always a fun small-market sleeper, and they do seem to be able to hang around the edges of the race. Especially if they can add a bat or two at the deadline, don't count them out.
Verdict: Contender
New York Yankees (9-16)
Oh, man. What a bleak start it's been in the Bronx.
The Yankees haven't pitched well, as they've posted the second-worst ERA in the AL. And they've barely scored, as they've plated the fewest runs.
And most of all, they haven't inspired, as they've limped out of the gate and into last place.
They have talent, but a lot of it is aging. It's possible creaky veterans such as Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran and CC Sabathia will hold up over the 162-game grind and give enough to push New York back into the picture.
More likely, though, this is the year the wheels come off and the team pivots in a new direction. The farm system has been reasonably restocked, and the 2018 free-agent class is loaded.
No one waves a white flag in early May. But it's probably time for the Yankees to take the long view.
Verdict: Pretender
Non-Contender(s): None
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NL West
4 of 6
San Francisco Giants (15-14)
A lot has gone right for the Giants as they set out to make some more even-year magic.
A balanced lineup littered with homegrown talent has scored the third-most runs in baseball. And the offseason's big pitching additions, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, have joined ace Madison Bumgarner to form a stout front of the rotation.
There are concerns with the rest of the starting corps (paging Tim Lincecum). And the bullpen, a staple of San Francisco's recent run of titles, lost setup man Sergio Romo to an elbow strain.
Overall, though, this team is arguably more complete than the ones that scattered orange-and-black confetti in 2012 and 2010.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Dodgers (14-14)
The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw. And he's joined by Japanese import Kenta Maeda, who has translated his skills to the tune of a 1.41 ERA through five starts.
The rest of the rotation is far less reliable thanks to a raft of injuries. And the offense is scuffling in a big way.
In fact, Los Angeles has now sunk to 21st in baseball in runs scored while dropping seven of its last nine games.
With reliable veterans like Adrian Gonzalez and budding stars like Corey Seager, the hits should start coming at some point. If they don't, the Dodgers have a loaded farm system and baseball's biggest payroll to augment with trade-deadline reinforcements.
L.A. will be there at the end. But its run of three consecutive division titles is definitely in jeopardy.
Verdict: Contender
Arizona Diamondbacks (12-17)
Free agent Zack Greinke and trade acquisition Shelby Miller were supposed to bolster the Diamondbacks rotation and support an offense that was second in the National League in runs scored last year.
So far, so meh.
Greinke sports am un-Greinke-like 5.50 ERA. And Miller has been so bad it's worth wondering if the haul the D-backs gave up to land him will go down as one of the worst deals in recent memory.
Both pitchers could still turn it around. And the offense, anchored by Paul Goldschmidt, is among the top 10 in runs and OPS.
With the Giants and Dodgers each looking mortal, don't write the Snakes off. But they'll only go as far as their big-ticket arms can carry them.
Verdict: Contender
Non-Contender(s): Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres
NL Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs (20-6)
Sometimes, hype happens for a reason.
So it's been with the Cubs, who carried big expectations into the season and have lived up to them and then some.
They've got the best team ERA in baseball. They've scored the most runs in baseball. And, not surprisingly, they've got baseball's best run differential by a country mile.
The new additions—Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey—are meshing nicely with the established core that advanced to the National League Championship Series last season. And the team has managed to push through early adversity in the form of slugger Kyle Schwarber's season-ending knee injury.
This is the club president of baseball operations Theo Epstein built: young, versatile and deep.
These are the Cubs, so there's always the question of when the other cursed shoe will drop. That said, through a month-plus of action, this is clearly the best squad in baseball.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Pirates (15-13)
The Pirates have hit the ball. They rank among the top five MLB teams in runs scored and OPS, even with their best player, Andrew McCutchen, hitting a pedestrian .229.
But Pittsburgh has also wobbled on the mound, ranking near the bottom third in baseball in ERA and opponents' batting average.
They've got the talent to reverse that, including a strong top two starters in Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano.
The Cubs are the class of the division, but the Bucs appear more than capable of sailing toward another wild-card berth.
Verdict: Contender
St. Louis Cardinals (14-14)
Like Pittsburgh, the Cardinals have done it in the batter's box but less so on the mound.
They've scored the second-most runs behind the Cubs, thanks to surprising rookies Jeremy Hazelbaker and Aledmys Diaz and catcher Yadier Molina's solid return from offseason thumb surgeries.
But their starting rotation owns a 4.31 ERA, a figure that's dragged down by ace Adam Wainwright's 6.68 mark.
Also like Pittsburgh, the Cards figure to remain in the mix, as they seem to do nearly every year. Remember, the NL Central produced three playoff teams in 2015. Catching the archrival Cubbies, however, may prove too tall an order.
Verdict: Contender
Non-Contender(s): Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers
NL East
6 of 6
Washington Nationals (19-8)
After last season's crash-and-burn campaign, the Nationals are looking for redemption under new manager Dusty Baker.
They're off to an excellent start, with an offense boosted by free-agent addition Daniel Murphy (.398 average) and reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper (10 home runs, 26 RBI).
The starting pitching, too, has atoned for last season's fizzling act, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and company posting a 2.19 ERA, tied with the Cubs for tops in baseball.
Could it all go sour again? Sure. But right now, Nationals Park is easily the least dysfunctional place in the nation's capital.
Verdict: Contender
New York Mets (17-9)
You've heard the hand-wringing associated with the Mets' starting pitching, particularly right-hander Matt Harvey, who has struggled in the early going. Super-agent Scott Boras even expressed a little doubt, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, which tells you all you need to know.
Except here's the thing: New York's starting pitchers boast the third-best ERA in baseball. Noah Syndergaard is emerging as a bolt-throwing demigod. And they're set to get Zack Wheeler back at some point from Tommy John surgery.
Add an offense that, while not overpowering, is among the top 10 in baseball in runs and OPS, and you've got a team that's prepared to challenge the Nats for division supremacy and defend its NL crown.
Verdict: Contender
Philadelphia Phillies (16-12)
The Phillies have been a great story, emerging from the ashes of a painful and protracted rebuild to post a winning record.
They've done it on the strength of their starting pitching, most notably Vince Velasquez and Aaron Nola. The offense has budding stars, too, led by sophomore third baseman Maikel Franco.
In all probability, this team is a few pieces and at least another year away from legit contention. Then again, that's what many said about the Astros and Twins last season, so who knows?
Verdict: Pretender...for now
Miami Marlins (14-12)
After All-Star Dee Gordon was suspended 80 games for a positive performance-enhancing drug test, it felt like another dysfunctional Marlins season was circling the drain.
Miami, however, has won nine of its last 10 games to climb back over .500. Giancarlo Stanton is swinging it like the elite slugger he is, and there are enough pieces around him to buy the notion that the Fish could stay afloat.
Still, this is clearly a two-team race between the Nats and Mets. For Miami to sneak into October, three clubs would have to advance from the NL East, which seems unlikely.
Then again, wouldn't that be the most out-of-nowhere Marlins outcome imaginable?
Verdict: Pretender
Non-Contender(s): Atlanta Braves
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