Early Predictions for MLB's Biggest Buyers and Sellers at the Trade Deadline
The MLB trade deadline is still three months away, but it's never too early to start speculating about what might go down this summer.
There are already a handful of rebuilding teams that look like clear sellers, and contenders have started mentally dissecting those rosters as they assess their needs.
Inevitable injuries and the changing MLB landscape as a whole will no doubt shake things up between now and July, but let's take an early crack at predicting who might be the top buyers and sellers at this year's Aug. 1 deadline.
Sellers are ranked based on their available trade chips and the likelihood that they'll aggressively sell, while buyers are ranked based on areas of need, likelihood that they'll aggressively buy and the farm systems at their disposal.
Let's kick things off with our No. 3 biggest seller.
No. 3 Biggest Seller: Atlanta Braves
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Overview
One tweet from Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tells you all you need to know about the Atlanta Braves' approach to this season: "Braves are desperately trying to 'buy' tradable draft picks by offering to take on bad contracts if teams include picks as well."
This is a rebuilding team in every sense of the word, and while they'll never admit to tanking, that's exactly what the Braves are doing as they continue to stockpile young talent.
The likes of Jason Heyward, Shelby Miller, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Wood, Evan Gattis and Cameron Maybin have all been traded off since the start of 2014, but the team still has some useful chips it could look to move this summer.
Notable Trade Chips
SP Julio Teheran
The Braves got some bites on Teheran during the offseason, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, but no one was willing to meet their steep asking price after his disappointing 2015 season.
The 25-year-old turned a strong rookie season in 2013 into a six-year, $32.4 million extension, and he followed that up with an All-Star appearance in 2014 when he won 14 games and posted a 2.89 ERA.
That ERA climbed to 4.04 this past season, though, and his stock on the trade market plummeted as a result.
The right-hander has a 3.72 ERA through his first six starts in 2016, and he's stymied two strong offenses in the Boston Red Sox (7.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 8 K) and Chicago Cubs (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K) in his last two starts.
If he keeps pitching like that, the Braves just might decide to hold on to him as a long-term piece. Otherwise, he has a chance to be the top arm on the market.
RF Nick Markakis
Looking to add a veteran presence to their young roster, the Braves signed Markakis to a four-year, $44 million deal prior to last season.
The 32-year-old posted a strong .370 on-base percentage and laced 38 doubles in his Braves debut, and he's off to a strong start here in 2016 with a .281/.391/.396 line that includes an NL-high 11 two-baggers.
His $11 million-per-year price tag isn't unreasonable at his current level of production, so for a team looking for a left-handed bat with on-base skills who's more than just a rental, he could be a great fit.
SP Jhoulys Chacin
Plucked from the scrapheap with a minor league deal, Chacin won a rotation spot to begin the year.
The 28-year-old was 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.182 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 in four April starts before allowing four home runs and eight earned runs total in 4.2 innings his last time out against the New York Mets.
Provided that rocky start was just a bump in the road and not the first step toward significant regression, he has a chance to be a viable trade piece.
No. 3 Biggest Buyer: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Overview
Despite a mediocre 14-14 start to the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers find themselves in a three-way tie for first place in the NL West standings with the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies.
Even with Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy expected to return from the disabled list sometime this summer, the pitching staff as a whole remains a long-term concern if the Dodgers hope to be a legitimate title contender.
That's where having one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, ranked No. 1 by Baseball America, should serve them well once the trade deadline rolls around.
Even if they balk at the idea of moving elite pitching prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon, there's still enough talent down on the farm for the Dodgers to pull off a blockbuster deal.
Major Areas of Need
Starting Pitching
Clayton Kershaw (6 GS, 3-1, 1.96 ERA) and Kenta Maeda (5 GS, 3-1, 1.41 ERA) have been as good a one-two punch as any in baseball so far, but the rest of the Dodgers rotation remains a question mark.
Alex Wood (6 GS, 2 QS, 1-3, 5.18 ERA) and Scott Kazmir (6 GS, 2 QS, 2-2, 5.68 ERA) have both disappointed, while rookie Ross Stripling has a 5.49 ERA in his last four starts since throwing 7.1 no-hit innings in his MLB debut.
Ryu and McCarthy give the team some in-house options to upgrade, and the aforementioned Urias could be a factor as well. The 19-year-old southpaw is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in 24 innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City to start the year.
All of that said, you can still expect the Dodgers to be right in the thick of the starting pitching market when July rolls around.
Relief Pitching
The Dodgers ranked 19th in the league with a 3.91 bullpen ERA last season, and it's been more of the same here in 2016 as the relief corps holds a 4.03 ERA heading into Friday.
Closer Kenley Jansen (10-of-10 SV, 0.82 ERA, 9.8 K/9) has been lights out once again, but getting him the ball with a lead intact has been an adventure.
Joe Blanton (12 G, 0.77 ERA) has been a nice addition, but key setup arms Pedro Baez (12 G, 4.76 ERA), Chris Hatcher (14 G, 7.50 ERA) and J.P. Howell (11 G, 9.39 ERA) have all been hit hard.
Adding a reliable eighth-inning option could actually trump the need for a starter by the time July rolls around, but it figures to be an area of focus regardless.
No. 2 Biggest Seller: Milwaukee Brewers
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Overview
The Milwaukee Brewers made it clear they were ready to start rebuilding when they traded off Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers at the deadline last year, and they wound up finishing the season with 94 losses.
That kicked-started a busy offseason, and by the time Opening Day rolled around, Adam Lind, Francisco Rodriguez, Jean Segura and Khris Davis had all been traded while the organization continued to add young talent.
Now with an 11-17 start to the 2016 season, more trades figure to be coming.
Top prospects SS Orlando Arcia, CF Brett Phillips and LHP Josh Hader are all expected to be in the majors at some point this year, and while the team continues to evaluate its long-term pieces, it still has a handful of attractive veteran trade chips.
Notable Trade Chips
LF Ryan Braun
A five-year, $105 million extension that Braun signed back in 2011 finally kicked in this year, and the $76 million he'll still be owed over the next four years will be a major factor in his value as a potential trade chip.
Braun also has a no-trade clause that allows him to veto trades to every team except the Dodgers, Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
Despite those hangups, the 32-year-old slugger could still wind up being moved.
In fact, he could be the top bat on the market if the Colorado Rockies decide to hold on to Carlos Gonzalez.
Braun is hitting .368/.434/.579 with five doubles, five home runs and 22 RBI so far this year, good for a 1.1 WAR.
C Jonathan Lucroy
After a fourth-place finish in NL MVP voting in 2014, Jonathan Lucroy struggled with injuries last season and saw his OPS drop from .837 to .717 as a result.
The Brewers shopped him during the offseason, and he was open to the idea of being moved, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt. After his concussion issues in 2015, though, teams were understandably leery about giving up a huge prospect haul before Lucroy proved he was back to 100 percent.
So far, so good on that front.
The 29-year-old has reached base safely in 22 of 25 games and is hitting .308/.376/.429 with 14 runs scored.
On top of the fact that he'd be the best catcher option on the trade market if made available, Lucroy is made even more valuable by the fact that he carries a reasonable $5.25 million team option for next season.
RP Jeremy Jeffress
When Will Smith suffered a torn LCL during spring training, the door opened for hard-throwing Jeremy Jeffress to step into the vacant closer's role for the Brewers.
Jeffress shined in a setup role last season, appearing in 72 games and posting a 2.65 ERA, 1.265 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 while recording a team-high 23 holds.
With an average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph for his career and a terrific curveball to back it, there was no question the 28-year-old had the stuff to close, and he's succeeded in that role thus far.
He's a perfect 7-of-7 on save chances with a 3.09 ERA and 1.286 WHIP.
The fact that he's under team control through the 2019 season could make him the most sought-after bullpen arm on the market if he keeps pitching at a high level.
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No. 2 Biggest Buyer: Chicago White Sox
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Overview
Off to a 19-10 start, the Chicago White Sox have so far been the biggest surprise of the 2016 season.
"Last year, we came in here just hoping to win. It didn't work," outfielder Adam Eaton told Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "This year, we came in here expecting to win. It's working. We know that anybody can do it for a month. We want to do it all of the way through October. And we believe we can."
The White Sox have gotten where they are on the strength of their pitching staff, as the offense ranks in the middle of the pack with 3.83 runs per game, a .238 average and a .693 OPS.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff sports a 2.83 ERA that ranks fourth in the majors and first in the American League. They also have the league's best bullpen, with a 2.00 ERA and 1.074 WHIP.
An improved defense also deserves mention. They were the worst all-around defensive team in baseball last year, according to FanGraphs. This year, they rank ninth.
The White Sox may not have the deepest farm system in baseball, ranked No. 23 by Baseball America, but that hasn't stopped them from finding a way to get deals done in the past, and there are some attractive pieces in the system.
Major Areas of Need
Starting Pitching
The White Sox have two of the best pitchers in baseball fronting their staff, as Chris Sale (6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.808 WHIP) and Jose Quintana (4-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.983 WHIP) have been nothing short of dominant.
Mat Latos has also been terrific in the early going with a 4-0 record and 1.84 ERA in his first five starts, though his 4.31 FIP is a good indication of some regression to come.
Young left-hander Carlos Rodon is the big X-factor, as he has the tools to be a front-line starter but is still working on reining in his command.
The No. 5 starter spot was occupied by John Danks, but after an 0-4 record and 7.25 ERA through four starts the team opted to designate the veteran for assignment.
Erik Johnson (5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER) got the first crack at filling his rotation spot Thursday, and the team does have other options in Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Beck and Jacob Turner.
None of those are particularly exciting options, though, and if none of them can seize the job, expect the White Sox to scour the pitching market this summer.
Left-Handed Bat
Rounding out the rotation might not be the only area of focus for the White Sox.
"Sources indicate that the White Sox aren't just looking for pitching but are kicking the tires hard on a quality left-handed hitter," wrote Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago.
The White Sox rank 27th in the league with a .651 OPS from the left side of the plate.
Levine speculates that Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies could be a potential fit, and he'd certainly be a splashy addition to the offense.
Jay Bruce and Nick Markakis are two more left-handed bats that will likely be made available, so the South Siders have some options as far as who they may ultimately decide to target.
No. 1 Biggest Seller: San Diego Padres
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Overview
The San Diego Padres surprised more than a few people when, despite a losing record and a number of valuable trade chips, they opted to stand pat at the deadline last year.
They would go on to finish the season a distant fourth place in the NL West with a 74-88 record.
With Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy gone in free agency and Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit traded for prospects, they didn't look like a contender heading into the year, and an 12-17 start has further supported that idea.
So will they sell more aggressively this summer?
Baseball America ranked the Padres farm system No. 25 in baseball at the beginning of the year, so adding more young talent seems like a must, and they have a number of attractive potential trade chips.
Notable Trade Chips
RF Matt Kemp
Kemp is still owed $72 million over the next four years, so moving him would likely require the Padres to eat some money. He has an .881 OPS with eight home runs and 22 RBI, though, and after playing 150-plus games the past two years his health is no longer a significant question mark.
SP Tyson Ross
Ross has been on the disabled list since April 9 with shoulder inflammation, and there's no timetable for his return, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. He's the team's most valuable trade chip as a capable front-line arm who is controllable through the 2017 season, but first he'll need to prove healthy.
SP Andrew Cashner
Cashner has never blossomed into the front-line arm the Padres hoped they were getting when they sent Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs to acquire him back in 2012, but he's been a serviceable starter when healthy. The 29-year-old is a free agent at season's end and could wind up being one of the more attractive rental arms if he can string together a few good starts in July.
SP James Shields
Moving Shields won't be easy considering he's due $63 million over the next three years, but there's not a more durable pitcher in baseball, as he's rattled off nine straight seasons with 200-plus innings. The Padres would have to eat a good chunk of money or take on a bad contract, but Shields still has value.
C Derek Norris
Norris is hitting just .167/.211/.289 right now, but he's been a strong offensive backstop throughout his career, so it's fair to assume he'll right the ship at some point. The availability of Jonathan Lucroy will have a direct impact on the value of Norris.
OF Jon Jay
Jay won't be the most attractive outfield bat on the market, but for teams not willing to pony up for Carlos Gonzalez or Ryan Braun, he could be a serviceable alternative. The 31-year-old is a free agent at the end of the year, and with a career .286/.353/.381 line, he's a useful left-handed bat capable of playing all three outfield spots.
RP Fernando Rodney
Rodney turned a strong late-season stint with the Cubs into a one-year, $1.6 million deal with a $2 million option for 2017. He's 7-of-7 on save chances over 11.0 scoreless innings, and as long as he can hold down the closer's job, he could be the latest Padres reliever to be flipped for prospects.
No. 1 Biggest Buyer: Texas Rangers
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Overview
A 41-22 hot streak to close out the 2015 season earned the Texas Rangers the AL West title, and with more or less the same team returning this year, expectations are high.
So far, they're off to a 15-14 start, which puts them 2.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners in what might be the most wide-open division in the league.
General manager Jon Daniels and the rest of the front office have never shied away from a blockbuster deadline deal, and they struck again last year with the acquisition of Cole Hamels.
Despite mortgaging some high-end talent in the Hamels deal, the Rangers still boast one of the deepest farm systems in the league, ranked No. 7 by Baseball America at the beginning of the year.
If they feel they're one or two pieces away from contending for a title, they'll once again be one of the busiest teams in baseball when July rolls around.
Major Areas of Need
Catcher
The catcher position was already viewed as a weakness for the Rangers heading into the season, and that situation didn't improve any when Robinson Chirinos was lost to a broken forearm.
Bryan Holaday, Brett Nicholas and recently reacquired Bobby Wilson have split time with Chirinos on the shelf, and the catcher position has produced a meager .221/.302/.389 line with 10 RBI on the year.
Jonathan Lucroy (Brewers) and Derek Norris (Padres) are two potential targets, assuming they're made available.
The Rangers showed interest in both players earlier this year, with Norris identified as their top target at the time, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
Starting Pitching
Rangers starting pitching has been rock solid so far this year, as their 3.62 ERA ranks ninth in the majors and fourth in the American League.
They'll also be getting a huge shot in the arm with the return of Yu Darvish, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is officially on the recovery trail with his second rehab start scheduled for Friday at Triple-A Round Rock, according to Grant.
However, they could still be looking to improve the rotation come July.
Martin Perez (3.60 ERA, 4.88 FIP) and Colby Lewis (3.32 ERA, 5.34 FIP) both have some troubling regression indicators, while A.J. Griffin (2.32 ERA, 3.31 FIP) has been terrific but may be pitching over his head as well in his return from Tommy John surgery.
It won't necessarily need to be a front-line arm, especially if Darvish and Hamels are as good a one-two punch as expected, but adding another starter could be a need.
Relief Pitching
The bullpen was expected to be a strength for the Rangers, but they rank 27th in the majors with a 4.78 ERA, and their relievers have suffered nine losses and four blown saves.
On top of their disappointing performance, the team lost hard-throwing setup man Keone Kela until after the All-Star break when he underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow.
Closer Shawn Tolleson (9-of-11 SV, 5.73 ERA) and setup man Tom Wilhelmsen (12 G, 9.00 ERA) have struggled more than anyone, and if they can't right the ship, the Rangers will be forced to look for some late-inning help.
All standard stats and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while advanced stats come via FanGraphs.
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