Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 5
A wise fantasy baseball manager knows not to rock the boat too much in April, but will that patience extend into May?
Enough stats are accumulating to start fretting the ace with the ERA over 5.00 and the star hitter batting below the Mendoza Line. As gamers wait on their established picks to wake up, lesser players are delivering to nobody's benefit on the waiver wire.
Don't go dropping a trustworthy mainstay for any of these free agents—all of whom are available in more than half of Yahoo Sports leagues. This list predominantly features speculative adds or guys to temporarily enjoy during a hot streak. Few of them will make a long-term impact in standard mixed leagues, but some certainly boast the potential to break out.
Ready to dump that late-round flier falling flat on his face? Consider filling his roster spot with one of these free agents.
Honorable Mentions
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Mixed Leagues
Chris Owings, 2B/SS/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jonathan Villar, 3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Aaron Blair, SP, Atlanta Braves
Tyler Duffey, SP, Minnesota Twins
Steven Wright, SP/RP, Boston Red Sox
Brad Brach, RP, Baltimore Orioles
Mychal Givens, RP, Baltimore Orioles
AL-Only
Danny Santana, SS/OF, Minnesota Twins
Rafael Ortega, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Henry Owens, SP, Boston Red Sox
Alex Meyer, RP, Minnesota Twins
Ivan Nova, SP/RP, New York Yankees
NL-Only
Kevin Plawecki, C, New York Mets
Willson Contreras, C, Chicago Cubs
Matt Joyce, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Cesar Vargas, SP, San Diego Padres
Colin Rea, SP, San Diego Padres
10. Rubby De La Rosa, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks (8 Percent Owned)
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A favorite around these parts, Rubby De La Rosa must have sensed this author losing hope.
The intriguing deep sleeper lost steam down the stretch last year, as he accrued 5.86 strikeouts and 3.91 walks per nine innings after the All-Star break. He didn't start 2016 much better by surrendering seven runs to the Chicago Cubs on April 7.
Time to abandon dreams of the fiery righty putting it all together? Maybe not. Over his last two starts, the Arizona Diamondbacks hurler has registered 16 strikeouts in 13 innings, allowing just eight baserunners and one run. He didn't just trounce easy opponents, either; he instead beat the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.
Suddenly it's hard not to fall back in love with De La Rosa, who has generated a 58.1 ground-ball percentage and 2.92 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) this season. Most importantly, the strikeouts are returning.
Last year's late swoon plummeted his K/9 to 7.16, but he still wielded an impressive 11.1 swinging-strike percentage. In April, he boosted the clip to 12.0. The talent is all there, but he needs to lessen his home run exposure while performing better against lefties, who clobbered him (.312/.382/.567) last year.
He's worth another chance as Arizona leaves Chase Field to visit the Marlins this week.
9. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, New York Yankees (23 Percent Owned)
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Veteran fantasy managers have done this song and dance before. Nathan Eovaldi has the makings of a great pitcher, and nobody wants to be left out if it finally happens.
Despite his career 3.62 fielding independent pitching (FIP), he carries a 4.16 ERA and 6.62 K/9—underwhelming given the standout velocity that has made him an annual sleeper yet to stay awake for a full year. Before letting anyone get too excited, he relinquished 10 hits and six runs against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday night.
Yet even gamers burned by the New York Yankees righty should take notice of his 31 strikeouts through 29.2 innings. Not that control has ever hampered him, but his eight walks sweeten the spot despite his 5.46 ERA not catching up to his peripheral gains.
Eovaldi closed 2015 strong by posting a 3.10 FIP and 7.99 K/9 after the All-Star break. Since joining the Yankees, he has thrown his straight four-seam fastball less in favor of a splitter. Per Brooks Baseball, the pitch has netted a 30.2 whiff percentage since the All-Star break, excluding Sunday's start.
Is he on the precipice of vaulting to ace stature? Probably not. It's foolish to keep expecting such a mountainous ascension, but he has shown hints of an ownable starter worth using when the right matchup rolls along. And hey, he's only 26, so there's still time for that full-fledged breakout.
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8. Derek Dietrich, 3B/OF, Miami Marlins (2 Percent Owned)
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Many fantasy gamers were dealt a swift blow when MLB suspended Miami Marlins speedster Dee Gordon for 80 games after testing positive for performance-enhancing substances. A cheap source of stolen bases will appear later in the column, but nobody on the waiver wire will replicate the second baseman's output.
Although the Marlins have no alternative to replicate his results atop the batting order, they do wield an intriguing slugger deserving of more playing time. Despite producing an .802 OPS in 90 games last year, Derek Dietrich spent most of April as a pinch hitter and backup for third baseman Martin Prado.
Since Gordon's suspension, he has started all three games at second. After going deep on Saturday, he batted above Giancarlo Stanton at No. 3 on Sunday.
Like last year, Dietrich is proving a sneaky power play, hitting .325/.426/.650 in 47 plate appearances. Dating back to last year, he has registered a dozen dingers in 109 games. He remains available in an overwhelming majority of Yahoo leagues, but everyone will eventually catch on if he continues to make the most of his new opportunity.
7. Sean Manaea, SP, Oakland Athletics (29 Percent Owned)
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Part of the flood of promoted pitching prospects, Sean Manaea made his MLB debut for the Oakland Athletics on Friday night.
It didn't go particularly well. The 24-year-old coughed up four runs through five laborious innings, walking four batters while only striking out three. Given his career 10.8 K/9 in the minors, early-adopting managers at least expected some punchouts against the Houston Astros, who strike out more than any team in the majors.
Manaea isn't a star prospect on par with Jose Berrios or Blake Snell. If he struggles again, the same people who giddily grabbed him will quickly become bored of him in standard mixed leagues. He's not a game-changing arrival.
Unlike Snell, who received a bus back to Triple-A as a reward for a strong MLB debut, Manaea should at least stick around. Oakland manager Bob Melvin indicated as much to the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser.
“Once you bring a guy up like that, you’re looking at it more for the long haul,” Melvin said. “We think he’s ready to go. Now, you make your reps here in the big leagues based on performance—but we wouldn’t be bringing him here if we didn’t think he had the ability to stay here for a while.”
Rough welcome aside, Manaea missed bats throughout his minor league tenure. His velocity and command have fluctuated, but he's capable of morphing into a high-end starter, so keep an eye on his development.
6. Justin Bour, 1B, Miami Marlins (20 Percent Owned)
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One of these days, the fantasy community will give Justin Bour the credit he deserves.
The burly first baseman emerged last year to hit .262/.321/.479 with 23 homers in 129 games. Little has changed in 2016; he's batting .276/.333/.461 in 22 games for the Marlins.
In those 151 contests, the masher has clubbed 26 long balls and collected 85 RBI. His Texas Rangers doppelganger, Mitch Moreland, is owned in 14 percent more of Yahoo Sports leagues. Adam Lind holds a slightly higher ownership rate despite his .549 OPS.
How much longer will it take before everyone buys into Miami's late bloomer? Perhaps this is merely a byproduct of Yahoo's standard public leagues hosting shallow rosters, but the 27-year-old makes a great corner infielder.
His two homers on Friday night could prove a harbinger to a power outburst, which would earn him a spot on more rosters.
5. Trevor May, SP/RP, Minnesota Twins (5 Percent Owned)
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If he keeps this up, Trevor May could work his way into the Minnesota Twins' closer role.
Since moving to the bullpen, the righty has found a higher gear as a dominant reliever. Last year, he posted a 2.87 ERA and 10.63 K/9 following the move from Minnesota's rotation. He's firing even hotter gas this year, accumulating 23 punchouts through 15 innings.
Meanwhile, closer Glen Perkins' return from the disabled list isn't imminent, and Kevin Jepsen isn't running away with the job. The replacement closer has allowed six runs in 10.2 innings and has blown three save chances in the process.
From a fantasy perspective, May is the guy managers want shutting the door. Twins manager Paul Molitor, however, could use him elsewhere in high-leverage situations for more than an inning at a time. He didn't even mention May when asked about removing Jepsen, instead referencing Ryan Pressly (3.52 ERA, 15 strikeouts in 15.1 innings).
“I don’t have any other plans,” Molitor told the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Phil Miller. “Pressly’s outings have been impressive all year. But I’m sticking with Kevin.”
Plans have a funny habit of changing, and May hasn't pitched two innings at a time since doing so twice during the opening week. For now, he's worth rostering as a major strikeout weapon. If he ever gets the chance to add saves to his fantasy portfolio, he'll become a premier player to own.
4. Michael Saunders, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (24 Percent Owned)
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Michael Saunders is frequently batting leadoff in a Toronto Blue Jays lineup featuring Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. What else is there to know?
Of course, he needs to keep earning that spot before manager John Gibbons realizes he's setting the table with a career .233/.304/.388 hitter. So far, the 29-year-old is shattering his norms by hitting .303/.376/.566 with four homers in 20 games. He has also scored 14 runs, which might be tame considering his hot start and star teammates backing him up in the batting order.
In his defense, Saunders has rarely received a chance to roll with a regular gig. The one time he logged over 500 plate appearances, he tallied 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 2012. He hasn't stolen a base since 2014, but he's capable of broaching 20 homers with a starting job and hitter's park at his disposal.
When his .365 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) falls closer to his .293 career rate, his unusually high average will follow. As a result, he's someone to utilize during a hot streak rather than a long-term fixture, but he'll provide enough pop to stick around in five-outfielder formats.
3. Rajai Davis, OF, Cleveland Indians (13 Percent Owned)
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About that steals replacement for Gordon...
Rajai Davis never gets the appreciation he deserves. Most players of his ilk age poorly, but the veteran outfielder has remained a steady presence. Since 2009, he leads all of baseball with 277 stolen bases.
It looked like he finally lost his wheels last year, when he recorded a career-low 18 steals. Not so fast. The 35-year-old has already poached seven bases for the Cleveland Indians this year, which ties Billy Burns and Starling Marte for second behind Jose Altuve's nine.
Davis has also continued his sneaky power gains. He has improved his slugging percentage in each of the past two years, earning a career-high .440 clip last year. He's sitting at .446 this year, having already gone deep twice in 20 games. While he's not enjoying an Altuve-like power surge, he'll throw in eight long balls, which is more than a lot of other pure speedsters.
A 27.5 strikeout percentage forebodes a drop in his .277 batting average, but everything else is a bonus as long as he keeps running. Even with Michael Brantley's return, Davis should continue to receive the bulk of Cleveland's starting assignments.
Another cheap steals option is Jarrod Dyson, who has swiped four bags in 11 games for the Kansas City Royals. This column looks to avoid redundancies, and he was featured before making his 2016 debut two weeks ago.
2. Brandon Drury, 3B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (22 Percent Owned)
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Brandon Drury hit seven home runs last year, and five came in the minor leagues. He already has five this year—four accrued over the last five days.
In 20 games with the Diamondbacks last season, he posted a dreary .214/.254/.375 line. Twenty-one games into 2016, he's batting .315/.329/.630. Baseball Savant has clocked three of his recent long balls with exit velocities over 104 mph.
Currently eligible at third base and outfield, the 23-year-old is working toward second-base citizenship as well. His success has impressed manager Chip Hale enough to slot him in the No. 2 spot above Paul Goldschmidt.
His one walk in 76 plate appearances is far from ideal, especially now that he's preceding a superstar in the lineup. He'll have a tough time keeping his average north of .300, so fantasy investors will need these power gains to stick. Although the 23-year-old is young enough to improve, his past results don't support this surge.
Roster him for now, and keep him around in deeper formats. Drury ultimately looks like a hot hand who will cool down soon, but does everyone want to poke holes in a statistical unlikelihood fueled by a small sample size, or do they want to see some dingers?
1. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (21 Percent Owned)
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It won't be long before Tyler Glasnow joins the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gamers who don't grab MLB.com's No. 8 prospect now may never get the opportunity.
On Tuesday, Glasnow registered 11 strikeouts through six scoreless innings in Triple-A. He followed it up with five more shutout frames on Sunday. Five starts into 2016, he has tallied 37 strikeouts in 26 innings while brandishing a 2.08 ERA.
Meanwhile, Jeff Locke has amassed nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (21) for the Pirates. A solid start on Sunday lowered the 28-year-old's ERA to 4.73. As Neil Walker plays home run derby with the New York Mets, Jon Niese has a 5.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in Pittsburgh's rotation.
Pittsburgh, a perennial playoff contender looking to keep up with the Chicago Cubs in the top-heavy NL Central, has a superior starter waiting in the minors. Once he's unleashed, Glasnow is a tantalizing high-upside hurler worth the gamble in all mixed leagues.
At the least, he'll help in the strikeout column.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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