5 Biggest Takeaways from April 2016's MLB Action
The is-this-for-real conversation begins to happen after the first month of the Major League Baseball season like a young actor enjoying the first taste of celebrity.
What we try to take away from April’s baseball action is what is fact and what is fiction. One month provides us little that is definitive in a six-month MLB season.
But, of course, we want our answers. And we want them now.
Overreaction tends to be the general theme of baseball’s first month. It goes both ways, too. A struggling team might watch its fanbase unnecessarily panic. The Kool-Aid of a surprisingly good team or player tastes like a fine wine.
Until we hit May.
Everything could change with the weather in the eastern part of the country. So before we hit baseball’s second month, on this final day of April, here is what we can draw from the first month of the 2016 MLB season.
1. Accusing Jake Arrieta of PED Use Is Absurd
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Until MLB completely rids itself of steroid use, the turnarounds of players like Chicago Cubs pitcher Jake Arrieta will always be questioned.
Friday we were reminded that PED use still pervades the sport. Miami Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon was suspended 80-games by MLB for violating its performance-enhancing drugs policy, via ESPN.
And the users just fuel the accusers.
The woebegone Arrieta has journeyed from fringe MLB pitcher to perennial Cy Young candidate in the two-plus seasons since being traded by the Baltimore Orioles to Chicago.
Just after Arrieta threw his second career no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on April 21, he was accused of potential steroid use by Stephen A. Smith on ESPN’s First Take.
It’s patently ridiculous and uninformed to suggest such a thing.
Steroids certainly can improve recovery time, which is the Holy Grail in MLB’s 162-game season. PEDs help increase a player’s strength. Power numbers can go up.
These drugs do not, however, suddenly bestow no-hit stuff onto a pitcher.
Arrieta has always had the pitches in his repertoire to be a top-of-the-rotation player. Actually Baltimore didn’t allow its pitchers to throw cutters when Arrieta was there. That’s his best pitch which, coupled with injuries, may have held him back with the Orioles.
Having seen Arrieta’s workout program firsthand—one that rivals any position player—it's understandable why he has shown such endurance over the last season. In five starts in 2016, he has pitched 36 innings with an ERA of 1.00. He threw 229 innings last regular season.
Cubs general manager Theo Epstein said on the Kap & Co. Show on ESPN 1000 in Chicago (via Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com):
"Jake works harder than anyone in baseball. That's a fact, and anyone who's around Jake understands that, so maybe he should come try to do Jake's workout for a week before he questions his integrity or questions his livelihood, essentially. I just found it to be completely reckless and an unfortunate reflection of certain elements of the media age we live in where it's more important to attract attention and attract ratings than it is be intellectually honest. I thought it was ridiculous.
"
2. The NL Central Is Less Likely to Get 2 Wild-Card Teams Again
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Given the number of NL teams in a rebuilding year, one might think it would be easier for the NL Central to earn both wild cards for the second straight year.
The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates played in the league’s Wild Card Game last season. The St. Louis Cardinals won the division in 2015.
But just as the NL’s bottom-feeding teams may be getting worse—or more appropriately, aren’t trying to compete—its crop of contending teams improved this season.
While last year the East and West divisions featured races that were wrapped up by the final week of the season, 2016 looks to be a year in which each will be much more competitive.
Through Thursday’s games, the Pirates and New York Mets (last year’s NL East champ) held the wild-card spots. A disappointing San Francisco Giants team from a season ago was just one-and-a-half games back in those standings, while the equally underwhelming Washington Nationals from a season ago led the NL East on Friday.
A month of baseball isn’t enough to conclude these teams will have bounce-back seasons. But both did make key offseason moves that give reason to believe they will be competitive come September and threatening the playoff hopes of a top-heavy NL Central.
The Giants added starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to their staff (more on this later), which has added much-needed depth. The Nationals hired Dusty Baker as their manager and a clubhouse leader known for his ability to relate to younger players. Washington was desperately in need of a new voice after ridding itself of Matt Williams and his old-school mentality.
The Nationals also added second baseman Daniel Murphy, who was hitting .370/.439/.603 through Thursday’s games.
The success of both teams should add depth to the NL playoff race this season.
3. The White Sox Will Need to Start Hitting to Stay Competitive
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The Chicago White Sox are a team that’s going to win with its pitching, which has been among baseball’s best through the first month of the season.
Don’t take this as a call for the White Sox to change their identity.
But Chicago’s pitchers have been so good, it's unlikely they’ll be able to sustain such a high level of play. Eventually the White Sox will need help from their offense. Through Thursday’s game, Chicago’s 2.55 team ERA was third in MLB.
Last season the St. Louis Cardinals finished with an MLB-best 2.94 team ERA. Since 2000, that Cardinals team is the only to finish a season with a team ERA under three.
History tells us the White Sox won’t be this good for much longer.
That means Chicago will need help from its offense, which was hitting .240/.307/.377 as a team through Thursday’s game. It should naturally happen, though.
First baseman Jose Abreu was hitting .207/.290/.345. Considering he slashed .290/.347/.502 last season and .317/.383/.581 in 2014, history suggests Abreu, the team’s No. 3 hitter, will improve drastically as the season progresses.
That alone should give the offense an uptick in its production.
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4. The San Francisco Giants' Offseason Pitching Additions Are Looking Good
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There were plenty of questions about Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija when the San Francisco Giants signed both starting pitchers to megadeals this offseason.
With the Chicago White Sox last season, Samardzija posted a 4.96 ERA—his worst since becoming a full-time starter in 2012. Likewise Cueto struggled in a 12-game stint with the Kansas City Royals last season—though he pitched well in the World Series—with a 4.76 ERA.
Both have reverted to top-of-the-rotation form in San Francisco.
Samardzija has pitched 32.2 innings through five starts this season and has an ERA of 3.86, which climbed after a five-run hiccup in his last start against the San Diego Padres. Heading into that game Wednesday, he had an ERA of 3.00. Prior to that, he had gone at least six innings in each of his previous three starts.
Cueto has an ERA of 2.65, throwing 37.1 innings in his five starts this season. He has a WHIP of 1.045, which, if the season ended, would be the best of his career. Cueto’s 3-1 record has come despite only receiving 17 total runs of support in his five starts.
In a Cueto start on April 5, San Francisco beat the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1. His last game was a complete-game shutout against the Padres in which the Giants only scored one run.
5. Expect the AL East to Be MLB’s Most Competitive Division
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Proof here lies in the process of elimination.
Each of the three NL divisions has two teams in the middle of rebuilds and not intending to compete this year.
They are the Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies despite a solid first two weeks of the season.
Which leaves us with three AL divisions remaining.
And the Minnesota Twins had baseball’s second-worst record after Thursday’s action, which makes it difficult for the AL Central to take the crown of MLB’s most competitive division from top to bottom.
That gives us only the AL West to eliminate.
But that’s a division whose presumed best team, the Houston Astros, had a 7-15 record as of Friday morning—tied for the second-fewest wins in MLB.
Of course, the AL East too is vulnerable in this argument, but each team, except the New York Yankees, is among the league’s elite in either pitching or hitting.
The Boston Red Sox rank second in batting average in MLB, and the Baltimore Orioles are only 0.02 out of fifth place. The Toronto Blue Jays have struggled offensively this season—for them. Last season the team boasted one of the greatest power-hitting trios in baseball history. Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion combined to hit 120 home runs.
The Tampa Bay Rays have the fifth-best ERA in baseball (3.33), which necessitates justifying the New York Yankees’ poor April performance to deem this division as baseball’s deepest.
The strength of the Yankees team is supposed to be its bullpen, but it is without closer Aroldis Chapman, who is serving a 30-game suspension. Last year Chapman had a WAR of 2.7, per Baseball-Reference.com, which makes them at least 2.5 games better and, therefore, only three games behind division leader Baltimore.
That alone would make it the closest division race through the first month.
Designated hitter Alex Rodriguez is hitting .194 this season, setting the stage for two things to happen: He will improve or get benched. But either way, the Yankees DH won’t be hitting below the Mendoza Line all season.
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