Stock Up, Stock Down on Values of MLB's Top Projected 2016 Trade Targets
It's never too early to start thinking about trades.
With the regular season's first month behind us and baseball's rumor mill well-rested after an offseason of activity, each passing week will see an increase in rumors and speculation surrounding some of the season's biggest potential trade targets.
From sluggers like Cincinnati's Jay Bruce and Milwaukee's Ryan Braun to young hurlers like Atlanta's Julio Teheran and veteran arms such as San Diego's James Shields, there is sure to be a plethora of options available for contending teams as the August 1 trade deadline approaches.
Whether those contenders will be willing to meet the asking prices teams have for their most valuable trade chips, however, remains to be seen. Over the next few months, those asking prices will rise—and fall—depending on how those players perform.
One month may be a small sample size, but it's enough to push the needle in one direction or another for a slew of potential trade candidates. Whose value has increased—or decreased—as the season's second month gets underway?
Let's take a look.
Stock Up: Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats: .372/.443/.605, 10 XBH (5 HR), 21 RBI, 11 BB, 15 K, 2-for-3 SB
Could there be a market for disgraced former National League MVP Ryan Braun?
In his latest video, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that the prospect of a trade involving the 32-year-old "is becoming more realistic," noting that he'd be a good fit with the Los Angeles Angels, one of six teams that don't appear on the slugger's no-trade list.
Healthy for the first time in two years, Braun is once again producing at an elite level at the plate, sitting among the NL leaders in batting average, RBI and OPS. No matter your view on Braun as a person, there's little doubt his bat would give a huge boost to a number of contending teams.
That said, Braun's performance-enhancing-drug-tainted past, no-trade clause, recent health issues and contract—which has another four years and $76 million to go after the season—could all limit his potential trade market.
If the Brewers are willing to eat some of the money left on his deal or take on a bad contract in return (on a short-term basis), however, those potential obstacles could all disappear.
Stock Down: Derek Norris, C, San Diego Padres
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2016 Stats: .138/.176/.218, 5 XBH (1 HR), 3 RBI, 4 BB, 26 K
Derek Norris wasn't holding back after a particularly rough outing behind the plate in a late-April game against San Francisco, allowing a pair of passed balls that essentially cost the Padres the win.
"It was horses--t," he remarked to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, "and I was horses--t."
Chances are that Norris would have a similar response if asked to describe how the 2016 season has gone for him so far.
Few catchers have allowed more passed balls or wild pitches than Norris, who has been even more inept at the plate, his name a fixture near the bottom of the leaderboards in nearly every offensive category. That's done nothing to enhance his value as a trade chip, a label he knows has been affixed to his back.
"As much as I would love to be here for 10, 12 years—hopefully, I can play this game that long, and I would love nothing more than to develop relationships with guys for that long—but the way the game is, people move a lot," he told Lin. "Trade deadlines, offseason moves—I mean, baseball’s crazy nowadays."
Norris, who has been traded twice, was the subject of trade talks between the Padres and Texas Rangers during the offseason, according to ESPN's Buster Olney, who tweeted those talks also included Padres starter Andrew Cashner and Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar.
With youngsters Christian Bethancourt and Austin Hedges ready to take over catching duties for the Padres, Norris is expendable. But San Diego isn't going to sell low on the 27-year-old, so he's going to have to turn things around before we start seeing his name pop up in the rumor mill once more.
Stock Up: Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
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2016 Stats: .244/.305/.477, 10 XBH (4 HR), 18 RBI, 6 BB, 21 K, 2-for-2 SB
After two disappointing seasons, it looks like Jay Bruce has once again found his swagger at the plate.
He's never going to hit .300 and is always going to strike out a bunch, but the 29-year-old looks a lot closer to the player that averaged 30 home runs, 94 RBI and an .826 OPS from 2010 to 2013 than the broken-down shell of a player he's been the past two years.
Nearly traded to the Toronto Blue Jays in February, USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that the Reds were willing to pick up $8 million of the $12.5 million Bruce is due in 2016, while Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan noted Cincinnati was willing to move him "for a not-so-big return" after the deal fell apart.
If the Reds are still willing to pick up a significant portion of Bruce's salary, they could wind up with a far better return than anyone thought possible only a few months ago.
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Stock Even: Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats: .321/.387/.440, 7 XBH (1 HR), 10 RBI, 9 BB, 18 K
One of the hottest names in the rumor mill this past offseason, Jonathan Lucroy hasn't hidden the fact that, as he enters his age-30 season, he's ready to play meaningful baseball deep into October.
"I want to win and I don't see us winning in the foreseeable future," Lucroy told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Tom Haudricourt earlier this year. "I want to go to a World Series. That's what all players want. Rebuilding is not a lot of fun for any veteran guy."
But with Lucroy coming off a down year that saw him miss significant time with a fractured left toe and concussion, teams simply weren't willing to meet Milwaukee's asking price for the former All-Star, which Haudricourt described as "a lot."
But he's shown no ill effects of either injury in 2016, remaining productive despite a lack of power, and Lucroy is under team control through 2017 for only $9.25 million, a relative bargain.
Predictably, speculation about his future has picked up once again. Last month, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote that the Rays should make a play for Lucroy, citing the team's lack of production behind the plate.
While it's unlikely that continued health and success will lead a team to meet Milwaukee's original asking price—two years of control over a player are more valuable than one-and-a-half years—it should increase the quality of offers the Brewers receive from interested parties.
Stock Up: Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats: 6 GS, 0-3, 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36.1 IP, 31 H, 12 BB, 34 K
Due just over $40 million through the 2020 season and with a track record of success (up until last year), multiple teams reached out to Atlanta about Julio Teheran's availability at the winter meetings, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman.
A month into the regular season, it looks like the Braves were wise to pass on whatever offers they received for the 25-year-old, who has allowed only three earned runs over his last three starts, tossing seven shutout, two-hit innings against the Chicago Cubs this past Sunday, walking one and fanning nine.
"Julio was tremendous, he was really good," Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez told United Press International's Jack McCarthy afterward. "This is now back-to-back outings. ... I was hoping for seven innings of 94-95 pitches and get him out of there. He carried his velocity through the last hitter he faced."
While seemingly nothing has gone right for the rebuilding Braves this season, Teheran's resurgence—if he can keep it up—has a chance to be one of the few bright spots at Turner Field in its final year of use. Given his age and contract, Teheran could be one of the hottest names in the rumor mill this summer.
Stock Even: Andrew Cashner, SP, San Diego Padres
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2016 Stats: 6 GS, 2-2, 4.85 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 29.2 IP, 29 H, 13 BB, 27 K
The good news for San Diego is that Andrew Cashner strung together three terrific starts in the middle of April, pitching to a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 14 strikeouts over 17 innings of work. The bad news is he allowed a combined eight earned runs in only 6.2 innings of work in the month's bookend starts.
Inconsistency is nothing new for the 29-year-old, who has seen his walk rate nearly double over the past two years after posting a career-best 2.1 walks per nine innings in 2014. A free agent after the season, Cashner is nothing more than a short-term rental for a contender.
How valuable a trade chip he becomes ultimately depends on two things: how many starters hit the market and whether he's in the midst of a hot stretch as the trade deadline approaches.
Stock Down: Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Boston Red Sox
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2016 Stats: .000/.143/.000, 1 BB, 4 K
Heading into the season, it didn't seem possible for Pablo Sandoval's value as a trade chip to fall any lower than it already was. Nobody, not even the Red Sox, wanted anything to do with the nearly $80 million (including a 2020 team-option $5 million buyout) left on his deal through 2019.
Leave it to the Kung Fu Panda to accomplish the impossible.
Only a few weeks after hitting the disabled list with left shoulder soreness, the team announced Tuesday, per MLB.com's Ian Browne, that the 29-year-old underwent shoulder surgery and could miss the rest of the season. Nothing kills a player's trade value faster than a major injury, especially one that requires surgery to repair.
Stock Even: James Shields, SP, San Diego Padres
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2016 Stats: 6 GS, 1-4, 3.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 39 IP, 35 H, 15 BB, 26 K
As Hall of Fame reporter Peter Gammons recently pointed out on Twitter, San Diego's James Shields hasn't been nearly as bad as his 1-4 record would indicate: "James Shields: six GS, five [Quality Starts], eight runs support, one win. [Due] $65M thru '18, but could Dodgers or Angels afford him?"
Sure, he's still overpaid, his strikeout rate is down, his command is still shaky and, with each passing start, he puts more mileage on an arm that has thrown more pitches since 2007 than every pitcher in baseball aside from Detroit's Justin Verlander.
But the 34-year-old has been one of the more durable starters in the game over that time, logging nine consecutive 200-inning seasons while giving his team a chance to win more often than not. There's value in that.
MLB Network's Jon Heyman tweeted toward the end of spring training that a number of teams, including Baltimore, had reached out to the Padres about Shields. Depending on how much of his remaining contract San Diego is willing to eat, moving the veteran starter might not be nearly as difficult as some believe.
Stock Even: Josh Reddick, RF, Oakland Athletics
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2016 Stats: .253/.318/.414, 8 XBH (4 HR), 12 RBI, 10 BB, 18 K, 2-for-2 SB
Some players head into the final year of their contract and crumble under the pressure, allowing their pending free agency to negatively impact them at the plate and in the field. Oakland's Josh Reddick isn't one of those players.
"I'm really trying not to focus on it at all, and it's working wonders for me," he told MLB.com's Jon Paul Morosi. "I've learned to have a very short memory in this game."
That short memory finds Reddick putting up the same kind of numbers he has for years while maintaining his status as one of the better defensive outfielders in all the land, at least in terms of defensive runs saved (DRS), per FanGraphs.
More of a complementary piece to a contender's lineup than a catalyst, Reddick's value will be limited by the fact he's nothing more than a short-term rental.
Still, with power always in demand and his defensive chops, he's sure to be one of the more highly sought-after bats on the market, assuming the A's don't work out a long-term extension with him before the trade deadline.
Stock Up: Nick Markakis, RF, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats: .281/.391/.396, 11 XBH (0 HR), 20 RBI, 16 BB, 17 K
Like Julio Teheran, Nick Markakis is one of the few players putting forth a quality showing in Atlanta this season. That only figures to accelerate his departure from the former National League East behemoth.
After all, 32-year-old outfielders don't have much of a place on a rebuilding team.
Sure, his continued lack of home run power remains a mystery. After averaging 16 home runs a year over nearly a decade in Baltimore, Markakis has gone deep only three times in more than 180 games in a Braves uniform.
But he remains productive despite his lack of pop, sitting among the league leaders in doubles (11), walks and on-base percentage while hitting for average.
Atlanta may not get anything substantial in exchange for him due to his age, contract (he's due $33 million through 2018) and below-average defense, but Markakis is sure to draw interest from multiple contenders in search of a reliable veteran bat for the stretch run.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through Tuesday, May 4. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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