MLB's 2016 Major Awards Leaders Heading into May Baseball
As the Major League Baseball season moves from April into May, the 2016 awards season gets one step closer.
It's still too early to pick who's going to win the big races, of course. It's not too early, however, to check in on who's in the lead.
Ahead are our picks for the early leaders for the Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards in the American League and National League. Managers were chosen based on who's done the most for their team, and players were chosen based on all-around performance and general impact.
We'll begin with the Manager of the Year awards. Step into the box when you're ready.
AL Manager of the Year: Robin Ventura, Chicago White Sox
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The American League is mostly a hot mess, but that only makes the Chicago White Sox's league-leading 16-7 record look even better. For that, you can direct your golf claps toward Robin Ventura.
Ventura's first four seasons on the South Side were marked by unspectacular baseball. The White Sox pitched well but fell flat when it came to other important things such as offense and defense. Hence, their 297-351 record.
But this year's White Sox are different. They've complemented better-than-ever pitching with greatly improved defense and an offense that's specialized in timely hitting. It's a whole new brand of White Sox baseball, and one guy says that was the idea from the beginning.
"We're in the process of changing the culture here," right fielder Adam Eaton told Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune during spring training. "We want to be a winning program, but we need to concentrate on the little things, be fundamentally sound throughout. We're starting to focus on that more during spring training, really hashing it out."
Ventura deserves credit not only for this, but also for keeping the White Sox's clubhouse from imploding. Things got ugly after they kinda-sorta-not-really pushed Adam LaRoche into an early retirement, and you couldn't help but worry that the ugliness would carry over into the regular season.
Instead, that already feels like something the White Sox can look back and laugh about. If they can keep it up, they may earn their skipper a shiny trophy in the end.
Also in the running: Buck Showalter, John Farrell, Scott Servais, Ned Yost, Jeff Banister
NL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs
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The National League is the domain of the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals, putting the spotlight on Joe Maddon and Dusty Baker. The winner can only be decreed through Mortal Kombat.
Or, we could just pick Maddon.
He's already won three MLB Manager of the Year awards, including one just last year. In the process, Maddon has showed that he's a skipper who can expertly run a clubhouse and expertly manipulate the pieces on the board within games.
So far in 2016, Maddon's skills are translating to dominance that's almost hard to comprehend. In addition to their MLB-best 16-5 record, the Cubs also have a stupid good plus-74 run differential that they've earned with top-notch hitting, pitching and defense.
Basically, Maddon has the Cubs playing perfect baseball. So perfect, in fact, that the latest FiveThirtyEight podcast wondered aloud whether they're MLB's answer to the Golden State Warriors.
The argument for Baker is that he's done more with less, as he's guided the Nationals to a 14-7 record despite not having a roster as stacked as Chicago's.
But the Nationals' early dominance seems to have as much to do with their schedule as their manager. As the Cubs have taken on some tough customers, Washington has feasted against the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins.
The Nationals need to pick on somebody their own size before Baker's candidacy for Manager of the Year can be taken seriously. In the meantime, Maddon's Cubs just need to keep doing what they're doing.
Also in the running: Dusty Baker, Terry Collins, Clint Hurdle, Mike Matheny, Dave Roberts
AL Rookie of the Year: Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers
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Not too long ago, the AL Rookie of the Year race was firmly in the grasp of Houston Astros first baseman Tyler White. But now, it's all about Nomar Mazara.
Like Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor before him, Mazara has quickly lived up to his billing as a top prospect in his first taste of The Show. The Texas Rangers right fielder has only played in 15 games, but he's made an impression by hitting .345 with a .906 OPS.
Cue the highest possible praise, courtesy of Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News: "He's looking more and more like Mike Trout with every swing."
OK, that's a bit extreme. But Mazara has certainly shown he knows what he's doing at the plate. He's used an approach that's featured both patience and contact and produced plenty of line drives. And as MLBfarm.com can show, Mazara has made pretty good use of the whole field.
All that could have been anticipated based on the 21-year-old's reputation as a guy with a magical bat. His defense is another story, though. The advanced metrics rate him well in the early going, and he has enough nifty plays in his personal highlight reel to back that up.
Meanwhile, White now finds himself in a deep slump. And though Byung Ho Park, the slugger the Minnesota Twins imported from Korea, is heating up, it's too soon to say he's on Mazara's level.
Also in the running: Tyler White, Byung Ho Park
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NL Rookie of the Year: Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals
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Among the early standouts in the NL Rookie of the Year race are some figuratively good stories (Kenta Maeda and Jeremy Hazelbaker) and one literally good story (Trevor Story).
But for now, they're all chasing Aledmys Diaz.
Most of the league is, for that matter. The St. Louis Cardinals shortstop has hit pretty much everything in his first 20 games, as his .446 batting average and .478 on-base percentage lead all qualified hitters, and his .785 slugging percentage is .001 points behind Bryce Harper for the MLB lead.
At this rate, the scouting community must consider replacing the term "raking" with "Aledmysing." And as surprising as it seems, maybe it's not actually the biggest shocker that it's happening.
He was a star in the Cuban National Series between 2008 and 2011, after all. And though his stateside career started slowly, Diaz has been Aledmysing for a while now. As noted by Scott White at CBSSports.com, the 25-year-old responded to being designated for assignment last July by hitting .337 with a .986 OPS in the rest of the minor league season. He then hit .315 with a .987 OPS in the Arizona Fall League.
Here's how Diaz explained himself to Mark Saxon of ESPN.com: "I started feeling more comfortable at home plate, then I started making good contact and having quality at-bats. With this sport, it's always mental."
However Diaz wants to explain it, he's been the most dominant hitter in baseball this season. And by far the most dominant National League rookie.
Also in the running: Kenta Maeda, Trevor Story, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Seung Hwan Oh
AL Cy Young: Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
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Unlike the one in the Senior Circuit, the AL Cy Young race doesn't have an obvious pick. Jordan Zimmermann has the ERA, but not the peripherals. David Price has the peripherals, but not the ERA.
So let's go with the guy who's enjoying the best of both worlds: Taijuan Walker.
The Seattle Mariners right-hander has a 1.44 ERA that ranks fourth among AL starters, and he also ranks second in FIP (2.11) and third in xFIP (2.56). Those latter two metrics are meant to measure pitching effectiveness in a way that ERA can't, and they don't have the wrong idea about Walker.
Walker has been overpowering, striking out 25 batters in 25 innings. He's also been in control, walking only three batters. He's also been tough to square up, posting an excellent ground-ball percentage of 55.1.
The 23-year-old has always had the underlying talent to dominate like this, but now's the first time he's really put it all together. He still works off a mid-90s fastball, but he's varied his pitch mix to include more liberal use of his cutter, curveball and splitter. Despite making his approach more complicated, he's been able to fill up the strike zone.
Rest assured, the competition is going to be there as the 2016 season moves along. In addition to Zimmermann and Price, either one of the White Sox's dynamic duo of Chris Sale and Jose Quintana arguably deserves to be placed at the head of the AL Cy Young race.
But early on, nobody can quite match the all-around dominance of Walker.
Also in the running: Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Price
NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
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With all respect to Chris Hemsworth and his fellow Asgardians, the best Thor in the galaxy is the one in New York.
Noah Syndergaard has looked very much like the God of Thunder in his first four outings of 2016. The New York Mets right-hander's 1.69 ERA may "only" rank fifth in the National League, but nobody is even close to him in FIP (0.82) or xFIP (1.67). And for good reason.
The 23-year-old has struck out 38 batters and walked only four in 26.2 innings, giving him a strikeout rate and a walk rate that both rank as elite. He also has a 56.7 ground-ball percentage. And according to BaseballSavant, his average exit velocity of 81.9 miles per hour is easily the lowest among pitchers who've had at least 50 balls put in play.
Somehow, Syndergaard's pitching is even prettier than his results. He's been sitting in the high 90s with his fastball, with a low to mid-90s slider and a low-90s changeup serving as his secondary pitches. That's the kind of stuff that's so good, it almost feels wrong to even talk about it.
"Right now, he stands alone with his stuff," one rival general manager told Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated. "Nobody sits at 99 mph and throws a slider 93. Nobody. It's just a matter of time before you see a perfect game, a no-hitter or a 17-strikeout game."
Really the only concern right now is that Syndergaard is pushing himself too hard. But if this is in fact just him being himself, he'll be tough to catch in the NL Cy Young race.
Also in the running: Jake Arrieta, Kenta Maeda, Vince Velasquez, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
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Just for the record, the best player in the American League has been Jose Altuve. But he hasn't been that much better than Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado or Mike Trout, who all play on teams better than the lowly Astros.
It's therefore fair to push the AL MVP discussion toward their side of the room. And for now, Trout has the strongest claim to it.
The Los Angeles Angels center fielder was slow out of the gate, hitting just .220 with a .673 OPS in his first 14 games. But he's since roared to life and now boasts a .295 average, five home runs and a .936 OPS that help place him among the AL's top hitters.
Since this is Trout we're talking about, this discussion must also include mentions of his baserunning and defense. He's been fine in the first department and better than fine in the second. This is to say, he looks like the same guy who's finished no worse than second in the MVP voting in each of the last four seasons.
Another story that sounds similar is what Trout has meant for the Angels. Whereas Donaldson and Machado are surrounded by good hitters, Trout is once again the Atlas upon which the Angels lineup rests. Without him, its AL-worst .650 OPS would be even worse. So too, most likely, would the team's 11-11 record.
All told, Trout is once again satisfying both definitions of "most valuable." He's been terrific, and he's been indispensable.
Also in the running: Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Jose Altuve, Colby Rasmus
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
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Now that we've established that the ideal MVP candidate is a player who's both terrific and indispensable, let's talk about Bryce Harper.
Harper has begun 2016 by doing the seemingly impossible of actually improving on his MVP performance from last season. The Nationals right fielder has cut down on his strikeouts without diminishing his patience or his power, leading to a .314 average, nine home runs and a 1.211 OPS.
Mind you, Aledmys Diaz has put together a better overall offensive performance than Harper. And due to his combination of offense, defense and baserunning, Dexter Fowler has arguably been the NL's best overall player. The two of them are good MVP candidates too.
But here's the rub: Neither can match Harper in the indispensability department.
He's the rock in the middle of a Washington offense that hasn't been nearly as good as St. Louis' or Chicago's. Harper has also been at his best when his lineup has needed him most. He went into Thursday with a 2.325 OPS in high-leverage situations, easily the top mark in the National League.
The way he's going, there's really only one potential threat to Harper's MVP candidacy. As Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post asks: What if teams just stop pitching to him?
It could very well come to that. Because if it doesn't, he's bound to keep acting like an MVP.
Also in the running: Aledmys Diaz, Dexter Fowler, Nolan Arenado, Noah Syndergaard, Jake Arrieta
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. All stats through games of April 28.
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