Why the 1st Round of the 2016 NFL Draft Still Matters to New England Patriots

Good news: If you're a fan of the New England Patriots and were looking for something to do on Thursday night during the first round of the 2016 NFL draft, I've found something for you to do.

Watch the first round of the draft. 

Wait, what? Why bother? The Patriots don't have their first-round pick due to the league's punishment for Deflategate. What could possibly happen that will affect the Patriots?

A lot. 

If for only one reason, other than keeping tabs on the rest of the AFC East and the NFL at large, the first round bears watching because it will set the tone for the rest of the draft, where the Patriots hold 11 of the remaining 222 picks. 

By now, we're all familiar with the Patriots' top needs: offensive tackle, defensive line, running back, cornerback and wide receiver. They also have long-term needs on the edge of the defense (either defensive end in a 4-3 or outside linebacker in a 3-4) and at linebacker as well. 

There are also a number of players who could fall into the team's lap. The draft can be unpredictable in that sense. One team's "reach" can lead to a domino effect that causes a player to fall further than anyone anticipated (see Miami Dolphins, wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr., and quarterback Brady Quinn in the first round of the 2007 draft). 

That, in turn, can lead to a "steal" where a player is available to a team that never thought they would have a chance to draft said player. Is it likely that there will be at least one player who is being discussed as a first-round pick available when the Patriots go on the clock at No. 60? No.

Is it possible? Absolutely.

NFL.com's Chad Reuter lists Eastern Kentucky defensive end Noah Spence as one of the prospects who is most likely to slip out of the first round: 

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After showing promise as a pass rusher at Ohio State, he was banned from the Big Ten for failed drug tests in [2013 and] 2014. After transferring to Eastern Kentucky, Spence excelled again, earning FCS All-American honors.

Then at the Senior Bowl, he looked like the best edge prospect available. Some mock drafts had him listed in the top 10 picks overall around that time. But as teams conducted their evaluations before, during and after the NFL Scouting Combine, talk of the top 10 has slowed and now he's being mentioned in the late first- or early second-round territory.

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Spence isn't quite what the Patriots prefer in a pass-rusher. They like edge defenders to be 6'4" or taller and 260 pounds or heavier; Spence is 6'2" and 251. But what he lacks in size, he makes up in motor. They might also be more discerning about Spence's drug problems. If they feel he has shown enough remorse for his actions, and enough commitment to improving himself as a person, he'd be worth a second-round pick.

There's also Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander. Though he's considered a first- or second-round fringe player, the Patriots have the ammunition to move up and get a first-round talent that's still available early in the second, if they are so inclined. 

The first round is important because it will determine which players are still left, but more importantly, it will also determine which positions still have the most talented players left. Depending on whether there's a "run" of teams that pick prospects at a specific position, the Patriots could be faced with a decision between the sixth-best player at one position or the third-best player at another spot.

Those early trends could be crucial in determining the final complexion of the Patriots' 2016 draft class.

The Patriots will be paying close attention to the first round, and for some insight on what they might do in the second round, so should you.