NFL Draft 2016: Projections for Elite Talent Sure to Slide to Later Rounds

An NFL draft's elite crop of talent cannot all fit into the first round. 

It's a simple matter of logistics, especially with this year's event boasting a deflated 31 picks, meaning teams at the top of the second round will have plenty of trade offers overnight once the talent begins its annual trickle-down effect.

Whether it's injuries, some other concern or simply too much of a good thing in the first round, the following guys will fall to the second round or beyond and provide incredible value for the teams that manage to scoop them up.

Projections for Players Sure to Fall on Draft Day

Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss

One of the most hyped collegiate prospects in a long time, Robert Nkemdiche crashed and burned near the end of his tenure at Ole Miss, as an off-field incident and quiet draft process not helping his stock.

In a defense-heavy draft, teams don't have to gamble on a player who represents such a risk. Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn was quite open with Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press about how his team feels concerning Nkemdiche:

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If they have a red flag -- and that’s not what we use on our draft card, that’s just a generic term that we spoke about, I think it was at the combine. That’s just things that we have to consider the value of the player compared to the risk involved in taking him. So it’s not like these guys are off the board. You just got to manage the risk and the reward of taking a guy like that.

"

In that same writeup, Birkett noted that Nkemdiche has openly admitted to being "lazy" on some plays at the college level—and before that, one of the biggest criticisms of his game was simply motivation.

To be fair, Nkemdiche bursts with potential at 6'3" and 294 pounds and is versatile enough to fit almost any scheme. He's not going to fall far into the second round, but the NFL has to work through similar prospects without the baggage first.

Look for Nkemdiche to land with a needy team such as the Dallas Cowboys near the top of the second round. If Dallas goes out and gets a player such as, say, Myles Jack in the first, then Nkemdiche, the offenses of the NFL East could have a sudden problem on their hands.

Projection: Nkemdiche goes to Dallas in second round

Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama

Ezekiel Elliott is alone in the first round, folks.

It sounds weird to say a guy who rushed for 2,219 yards and 28 touchdowns last year won't come off the board in the first round, but so it goes for Derrick Henry, who had the benefit of Alabama's meaty offensive line and doesn't fit the versatile criteria of today's NFL.

A bigger back at 6'3" and 247 pounds, Henry didn't flash much as a receiver in college, prompting some such as NFL Network's Mike Mayock to suggest teams will be more interested in teammate Kenyan Drake, according to CollegeFootball 24/7:

If a player isn't an every-down back, he's not coming off the board in the first round these days.

That said, plenty of teams need to fill a committee. Near the end of the second round, a team in need that comes to mind is the New England Patriots, an organization clutching back-to-back picks.

Look for the Patriots to pull the trigger and deploy the hungry Henry right away. 

Projection: Henry goes to New England in second round

Cody Whitehair, OG, Kansas State

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Cody Whitehair has the talent of a first-round player, but he has a couple of critical things working against him.

For one, he looks like an interior offensive lineman. Two, he's a smaller player (6'4" and 301 pounds) with short arms and a noticeable lack of strength (just 16 reps of 225 pounds in the bench press at the combine).

Everything else about Whitehair screams "first round," so much so that he might be the safest offensive lineman in the class, though what he brings to the table isn't important enough to warrant a selection in the opening round.

No, Whitehair is best suited for a team capable of using his technical prowess, which is what makes him such a perfect fit for the Denver Broncos at the end of the second round. He can slot in as a starter right away in the zone-blocking scheme, one that will mitigate his shortcomings and capitalize on his strengths.

Projection: Whitehair goes to Denver in second round

Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame

One of the best linebacker prospects to come out in a decade or more, Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith suffered a knee injury in a bowl game a few months back, one unfortunate enough to cause nerve damage, and his stock hasn't been the same since.

He has been a freak athlete who can drop into coverage like a safety and sniff out any run play on the field, but now the NFL has its doubts that Smith can even suit up next season, if at all.

Once considered a top-three pick, if not the top pick, Smith still has the same talent, provided the knee holds up. For Mayock, this is enough to see Smith come off the board in the third or fourth round: 

The third round seems like the extent of the fall for such a talent.

Mid-round picks such as those coming in the third are used to build critical depth, but those rounds of the draft can also serve as a nice risk-taking range. Look at the Cleveland Browns—the rebuilding franchise has two picks in the third round and opens the fourth with back-to-back selections.

With the first of those picks in the third round, why not take a guy like Smith, who could have been the draft's top selection, and hope for the best? If Smith returns and plays to his rare potential, Cleveland will jump-start the rebuild like few have in the past. If not, they still have three other selections in the same range.

Projection: Smith goes to Cleveland in third round  

Stats are courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of April 25. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.