Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Top 10 Pickups for Week 4
Many of 2015's quietly strong finishers have stayed hot this April, demanding attention from fantasy baseball managers.
A majority of this week's top 10 free agents, available in over half of Yahoo Sports leagues, ran roughshod late last season. They also, however, either started poorly or in the minor leagues, burying their late progress as brief blips.
Now that they're coming out of 2016 blazing, gamers must wonder if they have made distinct improvements to sustain their early success. These guys have all brandished better underlying numbers behind the standard stats. A batting average or ERA doesn't tell too much in April, but strikeouts and walks can depict tangible change.
Let's take a look at players to grab upon entering April's final week.
Honorable Mentions
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Mixed Leagues
Javier Baez, 2B/3B/SS, Chicago Cubs
Eduardo Nunez, 3B/SS, Minnesota Twins
Yasmany Tomas, 3B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael Saunders, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Josh Tomlin, SP, Cleveland Indians
Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies
Trevor Bauer, SP/RP, Cleveland Indians
Caleb Cotham, RP, Cincinnati Reds
American League Only
Chris Coghlan, 2B/OF, Oakland Athletics
Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota Twins
Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland Athletics
Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Sean Manaea, SP, Oakland Athletics
National League Only
Daniel Castro, 2B/SS, Atlanta Braves
Brandon Drury, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rubby De La Rosa, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Dan Straily, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Hansel Robles, RP, New York Mets
10. Tanner Roark, SP/RP, Washington Nationals (23 Percent Owned)
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Did Tanner Roark even strike out 15 batters last year?
Yes, turns out he amassed 70 punchouts in 110 innings, amounting to an uninspiring 5.68 strikeouts per nine innings. That made him undraftable in most mixed leagues, especially with Lucas Giolito looming to usurp his spot in the Washington Nationals rotation.
So naturally Roark registered a career-high 15 strikeouts against the Minnesota Twins on Saturday. The 29-year-old righty now has 24 through as many innings alongside a 2.63 ERA. Not bad for a No. 5 starter fending off baseball's premier pitching prospect.
Let's also put this start into perspective. He still sports a 6.32 career K/9, and his 8.1 swinging-strike percentage doesn't support April's massive strikeout uptick. Along with embarrassing the Twins, he hurled seven shutout frames against the listless Atlanta Braves on April 13.
One great game doesn't make him Clayton Kershaw, but Roark procured a 2.85 ERA in 2014. With the help of some subpar NL East opponents, he can again prevent runs and help as a matchup play.
9. Melvin Upton Jr., OF, San Diego Padres (28 Percent Owned)
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Believe in second chances? If so, let's get reacquainted with the outfielder formerly known as Bossman Junior.
Once a power-speed dynamo, Melvin Upton Jr. flamed out in remarkable fashion. In 2013 and 2014, he hit .200/.281/.314 with a 31.7 strikeout percentage. The downward spiral shunned him from fantasy leagues and an MLB starting gig.
He quietly improved last season, batting .259/.327/.429 for the San Diego Padres in limited playing time. The improvement and Wil Myers' move to first base helped him earn a 2016 starting gig, and he has made the most of his new beginning.
In 18 games, Upton wields a .259/.347/.419 line. Most fantasy players will grow encouraged by his two homers and five stolen bases. Even more vital to his lasting power, the 31-year-old has procured nine walks and 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances, both substantial progress from his foggy seasons with the Braves.
His 20-20 days are long behind him, as are his 40-steal totals. Yet he could quietly achieve redemption with a subdued 10-20 campaign, essentially reincarnating into Cameron Maybin with his second life.
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8. Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Cincinnati Reds (24 Percent Owned)
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A week after touting Kevin Gausman, who is expected to return from the disabled list on Monday, let's again plan early for a recovering starting pitcher. According to Cincinnati.com's Zach Buchanan, Anthony DeSclafani will make another minor league rehab start on Thursday, and he could join the Cincinnati Reds on May 3.
“Everything felt great,” DeSclafani said after his first rehab outing on Saturday, per Buchanan. “I’m really happy with that. I didn’t know how it was going to work out, but health-wise I feel great, and that’s the most important thing."
An early oblique injury took the sails out of the popular preseason sleeper. Even though he posted a 4.52 second-half ERA, he also notched 77 strikeouts and 14 walks in 83.2 innings. He ended his rookie year with a 3.67 fielding independent pitching (FIP) in 31 starts, extending hope he could crack the top 50 starters in 2016.
A healthy DeSclafani makes a worthy No. 5 or 6 starter to round out a rotation. Due to his limited upside, he's not a must-add in a shallow mixed league, but he's worth a pickup in most formats.
7. Melky Cabrera, OF, Chicago White Sox (37 Percent Owned)
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Even when he's hitting well, Melky Cabrera is a relatively boring player to own in mixed leagues. His value stems from playing regularly and providing a formidable batting average, not the .273 mark he offered last season.
He's also a valuable guy to have around during a boom period. Just look at April's early returns; he's hitting .333/.405/.485 with two home runs in 19 games. The 31-year-old is making excellent contact, striking out four times in 75 plate appearances.
While his overall 2015 numbers won't impress, Cabrera rebounded from a rocky start to post a .782 OPS after the All-Star break. Dating back to July 1, he is batting .299 with a dozen home runs.
The Melk Man won't keep hitting .333, but a .285 hitter with 12-15 bombs and 70-80 runs and RBI apiece isn't too shabby. Managers in five-outfielder leagues will love having him occupy the fifth starting spot, and players can ride his hot bat in shallower formats.
6. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, New York Mets (18 Percent Owned)
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When a shortstop's hitting .333, fantasy managers should take notice. When he's a solid veteran raking in a prolific lineup, everyone needs to pay attention.
Asdrubal Cabrera has enjoyed his welcome to the New York Mets, batting .333/.382/.444 in 17 games. It has only come with one home run, as a replay overturned another last week. He has also only driven in five runs and scored six, but that will change with his teammates catching fire.
Entering Sunday, only Trevor Story and Carlos Correa held higher weighted on-base averages (wOBA) than Cabrera's .359 among shortstops. A career .268 hitter won't keep batting .333, but it's a promising sign that he won't dip back into the low .240s like in 2013 and 2014.
This also shouldn't shock anyone who watched him flourish with the Tampa Bay Rays last summer. Following a sluggish start, he hit .328/.372/.544 with 10 homers after the All-Star break. He diminished his strikeout percentage to 15.5 during the second half, and those strides have continued with a 16.2 percentage this April.
It's somewhat surprising to see him so widely available, mostly because he stood out as a perfect Jhonny Peralta replacement. As a middle infielder or short-term starting shortstop, Cabrera is good for roughly 15 homers with five to 10 steals and a .260-.270 average.
5. Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (30 Percent Owned)
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A deep-league sleeper last year, Jake Lamb didn't pan out. The third baseman failed to generate any power, recording six homers and a .123 ISO. In the early stages of 2016, the 25-year-old has made ample progress.
Eighteen games into the new season, Lamb is batting .281/.373/.516 with two homers and steals apiece. Not seen in the standard five-by-five categories, he has already clobbered seven doubles in 62 at-bats.
Just a small sample size? Perhaps. After all, he was batting .414 before going on the disabled list with a foot injury last April. Yet he's trending in the right direction with improved contact, power and plate discipline.
When studying past numbers, fantasy managers can't account for a player's positive adjustments. Lamb entered the season with an altered swing, including a notable leg kick and lower hand placement. He discussed his tinkering with ESPN Insider Eno Sarris.
"With my hands low, I need to have some movement with my legs in order to get [the hands] up and back on plane," Lamb said. "If there's no movement in my legs, there's no rhythm in my lower half."
He has also shown more plate discipline, chasing 18.2 percent of pitches outside the zone compared to 26.1 percent last year. If his fast start proves more than smoke and mirrors, Lamb could deliver as a top-15 third baseman.
4. Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox (32 Percent Owned)
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Rick Porcello is not here because of his three victories. That may seem odd considering his 4.66 ERA and 4.72 FIP.
He's here for stockpiling 24 strikeouts while issuing only three walks. Before concluding the roughest season of his career, he teased everyone with a dazzling sprint to the finish line. Since Sept. 1, he has recorded 76 strikeouts in 69.1 innings.
Home runs have hurt the Boston Red Sox righty, but cut him some slack. His first two starts came against the Toronto Blue Jays. Jose Bautista went deep twice on April 9, and Edwin Encarnacion followed with his own pair of long balls six days later. Those guys are good at hitting home runs.
The advanced metrics better reflect Porcello's start, crediting him with a 2.50 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 2.85 expected FIP (xFIP). Needing to limit his exposure to home runs is nothing new for Porcello, but all these strikeouts are.
These Porcello blurbs probably won't end until he's universally owned or out of the starting rotation. He's slated to face the light-hitting Braves on Monday, so now is the perfect—and perhaps last—opportunity to claim him.
3. Rich Hill, SP, Oakland Athletics (21 Percent Owned)
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Nobody knows what to make of Rich Hill, who returned from nowhere with a sizzling September. A brutal spring training and wildly uneven April will confuse gamers even more.
In four starts for the Oakland Athletics, the 36-year-old has relinquished 20 hits and nine walks through 19 innings, giving him a ghastly 1.53 WHIP. He also, however, has accumulated 29 strikeouts, the same amount as Nordic god Noah Syndergaard.
Hill has already deposited two 10-strikeout games. Dating back to last year, he has tallied 10 punchouts in five of his last eight starts, totaling 65 in 48 innings. That's a lot of strikeouts.
Along with limiting contact with whiffs, the crafty lefty has also generated grounders on 54.5 percent of his batted balls. Those walks will make every start an adventure, so he won't help in WHIP even when his hits allowed regress.
He's essentially a much older, and currently superior, version of Carlos Rodon. Another key difference is his 21 percent ownership rate in Yahoo Sports leagues. If Hill sticks around, gamers are going to regret letting a 200-strikeout pitcher get away in free agency.
2. Domingo Santana, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (30 Percent Owned)
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It's weird seeing Domingo Santana, a 23-year-old outfielder with superb plate discipline and power, available in so many leagues. Until remembering most formats still use the standard five-by-five system, and he's hitting .275 with two dingers.
On the surface, he's nothing special. Getting geekier, there's a lot to like. He continues to exude great patience, notching an 11.5 walk percentage. Strikeouts are his main bugaboo, but his 29.5 percentage is manageable. A rise in contact percentage from 67.2 to 72.4 will help sustain his progress.
When he gets a hold of one, he's not cheated. Per Baseball Savant, he entered Sunday with an average exit velocity of 96.48 miles per hour. Only three hitters, all of whom have netted fewer than 25 batted balls, have smacked balls faster.
Hard contact hasn't led to fence-clearing power yet, but he brandished muscle by clubbing eight long balls in 52 MLB games last year. Adding his time in Triple-A, he finished 2015 with 26 long balls. Calling Miller Park home will help approach that margin during his first full major league campaign.
Like the Milwaukee Brewers, he's not perfect, but the batting eye and pop make him an intriguing breakout candidate to roster. He's especially worthwhile in on-base percentage leagues.
1. Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies (34 Percent Owned)
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A gem hidden in a pile of rubble, Odubel Herrera is turning into one of baseball's more potent table-setters.
The Philadelphia Phillies outfielder carries a remarkable 21.0 walk percentage, a great sign for someone who derives value on swiping bases and scoring runs. He has unfortunately only scored 11 runs due to his teammates' ineptitude, but he's also hitting .286/.432/.429 with two homers and four steals.
His patience is especially surprising after drawing 28 walks in 537 plate appearances last year. He already has 17 in 19 games. Most notable in his progression is his improvement laying off bad pitches. After swinging at 35.4 percent of pitches off the plate in 2015, he has wailed at 23.4 percent of offerings outside the strike zone in April.
As he explained to the Morning Call's Stephen Gross through an interpreter, Herrera committed to tuning his approach in hopes of slashing his strikeouts.
"There was not one specific strikeout [that sparked the change] but every time I struck out, I hated it," Herrera said.
Herrera started the process last year, notching a .394 on-base percentage after the All-Star break. At this rate, he'll create enough opportunities to poach 20 bases while hitting for a strong average and chasing a double-digit homer tally. Grab him anywhere he's available.
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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