NFL Mock Draft 2016: 1st-Round Projections and Riskiest Prospects

The NFL draft always carries an inherent risk.

It's scary to think about, too. Each team gets one shot in the first round to grab a high-impact player who will act as a major foundation-building piece for years to come.

Or, a team whiffs and tries again next year, suddenly causing an over-reliance on free agents and other means to stay relevant.

This year seems to have more risky prospects than usual, with so many unique stories making the rounds and impacting the stock market. After a look at an updated mock draft, let's see some of the biggest risks sure to come off the board in the first round.

2016 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
1	Los Angeles Rams	Jared Goff	QB	California
2	Philadelphia Eagles	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota State
3	San Diego Chargers	Jalen Ramsey	CB/S	Florida State
4	Dallas Cowboys	Myles Jack	LB	UCLA
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	Florida
6	Baltimore Ravens	Laremy Tunsil	OT	Ole Miss
7	San Francisco 49ers	Joey Bosa	DL	Ohio State
8	Cleveland Browns	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Darron Lee	LB	Ohio State
10	New York Giants	DeForest Buckner	DE	Oregon
11	Chicago Bears	Shaq Lawson	LB	Clemson
12	New Orleans Saints	Noah Spence	DE/LB	Eastern Kentucky
13	Miami Dolphins	Eli Apple	CB	Ohio State
14	Oakland Raiders	William Jackson III	CB	Houston
15	Tennessee Titans	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
16	Detroit Lions	Jack Conklin	OT	Michigan State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Reggie Ragland	LB	Alabama
18	Indianapolis Colts	A'Shawn Robinson	DT	Alabama
19	Buffalo Bills	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis
20	New York Jets	Jonathan Bullard	DE	Florida
21	Washington	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
22	Houston Texans	Robert Nkemdiche	DL	Ole Miss
23	Minnesota Vikings	Josh Doctson	WR	TCU
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Laquon Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Mackensie Alexander	CB	Clemson
26	Seattle Seahawks	Leonard Floyd	LB	Georgia
27	Green Bay Packers	Sheldon Rankins	DT	Louisville
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Michael Thomas	WR	Ohio State
29	Arizona Cardinals	Kevin Dodd	DE	Clemson
30	Carolina Panthers	Kendall Fuller	CB	Virginia Tech
31	Denver Broncos	Jason Spriggs	OT	Indiana

Highlighting Riskiest Prospects

4. Dallas Cowboys: Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

Rarely does a player look like both the best player in a class and the riskiest. 

Such is the case with UCLA's Myles Jack, though, as folks should be well aware of now given the amount of attention he's received in the last week and change.

Jack is on the way back from a knee injury and, according to one NFL source who spoke with Les Bowen of the Philadelphia News, is a "ticking time bomb."

Cute, but the days folks should go wild over what an anonymous person says about a prospect are long gone. There's a risk with Jack, sure, but he's also a freak athlete at 6'1" and 245 pounds who can both drop back into coverage and stunt the run after reading an offense, making him one of the most complete linebackers in years.

He's the sort of guy a franchise has to gamble on—iffy medical history or not. It's why the Dallas Cowboys take the dive in this scenario after years of defensive futility, especially from a crop of up-and-down linebackers.

"That would be amazing," Jack told The Dan Patrick Show, according to NFL.com's Chase Goodbread. "I would love to play for America's team."

Call it the perfect match. If a team is going to gamble on a position of need in the first round, then it has to be on a player like Jack. Is he a risk? Sure. Dallas could do much worse, though.

12. New Orleans Saints: Noah Spence, DE/LB, Eastern Kentucky

By now, folks should know the drill with Eastern Kentucky linebacker Noah Spence. 

A former Ohio State Buckeyes player who fell out of favor with the football realm after battles with off-field issues, Spence predictably terrorized the level of competition at his new school while attempting to turn things around. 

He has done just that, with his draft process going smoothly and no major new issues. His story paints an enlightening picture, to say the least: 

While doubt remains about Spence's first-round fate, there is little debate he boasts first-round talent. He's a 6'2", 251-pound freak athlete who can explode off the snap and bend and twist his way to quarterbacks or flush the pocket.

There's a reason Spence started his journey with the Buckeyes. His relentless motor and skills suggest first round, though, there will always be teams who wipe a player with his background completely off the board no matter how sweet the redemption story.

The New Orleans Saints cannot afford to be one of those teams. Cameron Jordan and Co. only mustered 31 sacks last year, something that simply won't cut it in the NFC South with offenses like the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.

Spence, perhaps the most polarizing player in the class, makes too much sense to pass up.

19. Buffalo Bills: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

The hype around Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch continues to grow, especially now that a few trades have gone down and shuffled things up. 

Before the major trades, Lynch looked like a mid-round quarterback. Now someone such as NFL Network's Ian Rapoport has floated his name out in the top 10 because it looks like both California's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz will come off the board with the first and second picks.

That escalated quickly.

In all seriousness, Lynch looks good on paper at 6'7" and 244 pounds with a strong arm and an ability to escape the pocket.

While comparing Lynch to Brock Osweiler, though, ESPN.com's Steve Muench explained some of the bigger issues around his game:

"

Both have above-average arm strength and pocket mobility, though I would give Lynch a slight edge in both. Osweiler didn't start a game until his fourth season in the NFL, but we felt that he needed time to learn a pro-style offense before playing a significant role. He showed promise in his eight starts last season, but his play was inconsistent at times. Lynch is similar in that he is still learning to read defenses and he misses the open man at times. Ideally, the team that drafts him doesn't need him to carry the franchise early in his career.

"

Luckily for Lynch, he lands in the scenario described here at No. 19 with the Buffalo Bills. Cleveland might want a quarterback, but new head coach Hue Jackson believes he can develop anyone after years spent on Andy Dalton.

Buffalo, on the other hand, doesn't seem confident in a future with Tyrod Taylor. Here, the Bills get a potential franchise quarterback who can sit and learn for at least a year.

While a risk, Buffalo has a chance to mitigate much of the potential problem via one thing few teams have these days when dealing with its quarterback situation—patience.

Stats are courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of April 22. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.