Indianapolis Colts Mock Draft Roundup: What the Experts Are Saying

With the NFL draft just days away, the amount of expert analysis is coming to a frenzied peak. 

One of the most analyzed—and overanalyzed—days of the year, the first round of the NFL draft brings each and every expert out of the woodwork. If you want draft predictions, opinions or critiques, you're sure to find them. 

Of course, that doesn't mean that the experts have anything predictive to say. 

Mock drafts, the apex of predictive draft analysis, are one great example. 

Last year, the most common targets for the Indianapolis Colts were (in order): DT Eddie Goldman, C Cam Erving, S Landon Collins, LB Eric Kendricks, EDGE Bud Dupree, CB Marcus Peters, CB Byron Jones and EDGE Eli Harold. 

No wide receivers graced the list, much less a late-rising prospect like Phillip Dorsett. 

Still, that's not to say mock drafts and experts are useless. They provide a glimpse into different types of thinking when it comes to draft strategy, team needs and player value. As long as proper perspective is kept, viewing a few different mock drafts can be a helpful exercise.

As we prepare for the Colts' highest pick since 2012, we go through this exercise looking at seven different experts and their predictions. 

Bryson Vesnaver, Pro Football Focus: G Cody Whitehair, Kansas State

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

The Pro Football Focus staff went through a complete seven-round mock draft a few days ago, and Byron Vesnaver took the role of Colts general manager. 

Vesnaver's reasoning was sound: 

"

Whitehair is far and away the best guard in the draft, and an immediate upgrade to the Colts’ interior offensive line. He’s got very few, if any, negatives to his game, allowing just 21 pressures combined the last two years. His technical ability is superb, as he nearly always puts himself in the perfect position to make a great block.

"

This is a pick that includes more thought than most of the Colts' offensive line mocks. In particular, Vesnaver grasps the idea that it is the interior of the Colts offensive line that needs the most help. Both Anthony Castonzo and Joe Reitz were more than serviceable last year, and Castonzo is a long-term cornerstone. 

Whitehair is a fascinating prospect because while he is likely the top guard in this class, he also offers versatility. He played tackle and guard while at Kansas State, but practiced at center during the Senior Bowl and could potentially move there as well.

This is perfect for Indianapolis, which has holes at guard and center and a long-term need at right tackle. If Whitehair is a dominant guard, put him there. If he can move to center, the need is there. 

Whitehair projects to be an above-average athlete in the NFL, and while his testing numbers won't blow anybody away, he uses his size, speed and strength in efficient ways. Whether it's hand usage, balance or movement in the pocket, Whitehair knows how and when to move to maximize his impact. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com called him "one of the safest linemen in the entire draft," and while that might not be sexy, it certainly has value for a team that needs to upgrade the offensive line. 

Todd McShay, ESPN: OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

The flavor of the month for Colts mock drafts, it's no surprise that "Big Draft" analyst Todd McShay of ESPN has the Colts taking offensive tackle Taylor Decker in the first round:

"

After failing to protect Andrew Luck last season, the Colts must come out of this draft with a more solidified offensive line. Decker would be a great place to start. He's a perfect fit at right tackle, Indy's biggest need, and has one of the highest floors of anyone in this draft.

"

The idea that right tackle is the Colts' biggest need is a common one, and the "best available tackle" method has been a popular one among experts for months. It was Michigan State tackle Jack Conklin for a long time, and now it's shifted to Decker. NFL.com experts have Decker slotted to Indy in three of their six mock drafts, and Sunday night's live mock ended with Dave Dameshek mocking Decker to the Colts once again. 

While there is something to be said about upgrading the offensive line, national experts are missing something with their logic here. 

For example, this exchange happened on the live mock on NFL Network after the Decker pick was announced: 

"You're going to move [Jack] Mewhort inside, right?" 

"Yeah, move him inside and you get better at two spots." 

There's a thinking that has been prevalent throughout the predraft process that Jack Mewhort was tried out at tackle and was a disaster, leading to the need for a tackle so he can move back to guard. The thing is, Mewhort has already been moved back to guard; he only played tackle for the first three weeks last season. After the Colts realized this was his best position, they found a better option at guard: utility lineman Joe Reitz. 

Reitz actually finished ninth among all tackles in Pro Football Focus' player grades last season, so the move worked well, and he'd probably be a serviceable tackle in 2016 as well, although the team also seems to like 2016 seventh-round pick Denzelle Good. 

Now, Decker, or any tackle here, would likely be a decent pick simply because it would give the Colts more flexibility with Reitz and Good, and would add another piece to an offensive line that needs young talent.

But a stud interior lineman would make a more immediate impact, and Decker's upside is limited. He's not a good athlete, ranking in the 23rd percentile for NFL linemen in SPARQ, and his pass protection is a bit too inconsistent to get excited about. It's a pick that addresses a general need of offensive line to be sure, but there is more impact to be had elsewhere. 

Charlie Casserly, NFL.com: EDGE Noah Spence, Eastern Kentucky

Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

If the Colts do go on the defensive side in the first round, the most popular pick for most of the predraft process has been Eastern Kentucky defensive end Noah Spence. 

Charley Casserly of NFL.com explains the pick succinctly and accurately: "They need to improve on their pass rush."

While some would place the offensive line as the Colts' biggest need, many of those who are plugged into the team would actually say that pass rush is by far the team's biggest hole. The Colts at least have young, solid offensive linemen to build around in Anthony Castonzo and Jack Mewhort, while the pass rush is left up to aging veterans Robert Mathis and Trent Cole. 

Mathis and Cole combined for 10 sacks last season, but the linebackers will be 35 and 34 years old, respectively, this season. The sack numbers aren't going to be going up, but down. 

The Colts cut 2013 first-round pick Bjoern Werner this offseason, as the former Florida State prospect was completely ineffectual in pass rush as a Colt. The team has drafted just one effective pass-rusher since Ryan Grigson took over as GM, 2015 third-round pick Henry Anderson. 

But as an interior lineman, Anderson's impact as a pass-rusher is limited. The team needs an edge rush, and needs one badly. Pass rush is the most important aspect of a defense, and the Colts have been depending on scheme and blitzes to conjure up a pass rush for too long now. They need an infusion of talent, and Spence has the ability to do that. 

With some character concerns, Spence could actually be available at No. 18, having been kicked out of Ohio State and the Big Ten due to multiple failed drug test. It seems that Spence has kept his nose clean for the last year, and the hope is that those red flags have dissipated. 

Spence isn't the freak athlete that Shaq Lawson or Leonard Floyd is, but he's above average and has the balance and speed to bend around tackles and have a decent burst off the line. Throw in a high motor and the endorsement of past coaches like OSU head coach Urban Meyer, and you have a player that would be worth the risk at No. 18. 

Chris Burke, Sports Illustrated: OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

We've already discussed the philosophy of taking a tackle at this pick, but let's take a look at the philosophy of taking OT Jack Conklin versus Taylor Decker here. 

Both Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated and Peter Schrager of Fox Sports have Conklin as the pick in Indianapolis, and Schrager explains it well: "Big, sturdy OT who can play—and protect—right from the get-go. Conklin could go top 10. I think Indy would be pleased to see him here."

Conklin has been on the rise of late, but the differences between he and Decker are minimal. The Michigan State prospect has slightly better testing numbers, but still no better than average, and does have longer arms, which could translate to a higher possibility of playing on the left side at some point. 

The highs for Conklin focus on his technique and toughness, which is good to hear, but waver on his balance and tendency to lunge. Are Conklin's feet swift enough to fit the Colts' run game if they go toward a zone-blocking scheme? Conklin tested better than Decker, but his feet often looked stuck in concrete on film, even more so than Decker. 

If the Colts do go tackle in the first or second round, Jason Spriggs of Indiana is an interesting dark horse. A stellar athlete, Spriggs has more developmental room than Conklin and Decker, and could likely be had after a trade down in Round 1, or possibly (although not particularly likely) in Round 2. 

Rob Rang, CBS Sports: C Ryan Kelly, Alabama

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Surprise, surprise, another offensive lineman. 

Don't skip past this slide too quickly, though. Ryan Kelly is probably the best possible offensive line option for the Colts in this first-round spot. Rob Rang of CBS Sports explains it well: 

"

The top priority in Indianapolis must be protecting Andrew Luck, and that starts up the middle. New offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and offensive line coach Joe Philbin are looking for more athletic offensive linemen and Kelly possesses the strength, agility and pro-ready game to boost the Colts' play at any of the three interior positions.

"

While tackle, particularly left tackle, is prioritized among offensive linemen, a center's role in uniting the line, calling out blitzes and protection shifts makes him the underappreciated key to a good offensive line. 

Kelly has everything you want in this center spot. He's one of the top three or four best athletes among the centers in this class, the best among any of the centers that should be drafted in the first two days. It's not anything that will stand out as spectacular in the NFL, but it's enough to get the job done as a longtime starter. 

Of course, at center, the mental ability and technical efficiency is more important than athletic ability, and Kelly is all set there as well. Kelly was the leader and captain of a formidable Alabama line, a four-year starter and a high-motor player. 

With Kelly, you're going to get a starting center for at least six to eight years, and probably one that could get to elite levels in a few years. Even if center isn't the most coveted of positions, there is value there, especially with the Colts' inability to find a center to stick since Jeff Saturday left. 

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: DL A'Shawn Robinson, Alabama

Eric Gay/Associated Press

It's hard not to get excited about the potential of grabbing a defensive lineman in this class, which is incredibly deep with future starters. But is A'Shawn Robinson the one for Indianapolis? 

Let's take a look at the explanation for Robinson from Pete Prisco of CBS Sports: "They need to get stronger up front. Robinson is a power player who would hold the point."

Prisco's co-worker Will Brinson has similar reasoning: "The Colts have to get bigger and more physical on both of their lines. The big man from Alabama takes care of the defensive side of the ball initially and will help them get better against the run as well."

Here's the problem: The Colts' power and run defense in the defensive line isn't the problem. The team's lack of penetrating playmakers, both in pass rush and run defense, is more of the issue. The Colts were in the top 10 in Football Outsiders' power run defense, but low in the amount of stuffs and open-field-yards allowed, indicating a lack of penetration and struggles at the second level. 

If the Colts are going to improve the defensive line, they need playmakers, not big bodies that clog the line. Arthur Jones and Kendall Langford can do that. David Parry can do that to some extent. 

Robinson has a well-proportioned body for a defensive tackle, and fantastic strength to "bench press" potential run-blockers. But his quickness and agility are awful, and he would be in the 11th percentile in SPARQ in the NFL. If the Colts are going to take a run-stuffing Alabama tackle, Jarran Reed is a better athlete and a better player. 

Chad Reuter, NFL.com: ILB Reggie Ragland, Alabama

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Outside of pass-rushers, the Colts' biggest defensive need is linebacker, where they took a huge blow in free agency when Jerrell Freeman signed with the Chicago Bears. 

Chad Reuter of NFL.com understands that, as he explains: "The Colts are lacking youth in their linebacking corps. The value for a pass rusher is not there, so they secure the middle of their defense with the addition of Ragland."

The Colts' other starting linebacker in 2015, D'Qwell Jackson, turns 33 in September, and is already slowing down considerably. Once one of the league's top linebackers, Jackson's lack of speed has resulted in huge struggles in coverage and inconsistencies in the run game. 

Jackson was serviceable in the run game in 2015 thanks to an upgraded defensive line, but he's not even a desirable option for the present, much less the future. Nate Irving and Sio Moore are the only other realistic starting options on the roster, and neither looked good in minimal time after being acquired last year. 

So a top inside linebacker like Reggie Ragland makes sense in the first round. He's a thumping, old-school linebacker who can take on blockers and shed to stop the runner with ease. He does have some questions in coverage and would be a below-average athlete in the NFL, but he has stellar instincts that could make up for it. 

Personally, I'd prefer the uber-athletic, versatile Darron Lee, but either linebacker would be a much-needed influx of talent into a desperate unit.