NFL Draft 2016: Latest Mock Draft and Highlighting Riskiest Mid-1st-Round Picks

Folks don't need to look far for headlines right now explaining just how risky the NFL draft can be for franchises.

There's a risk in every prospect, of course. Each has a chance of simply not panning out despite looking like the surest of things. Others land in less than ideal situations and flounder rather than flourish. Even more have the obvious stuff such as prior off-field issues or checkered medical histories capable of producing red flags. 

The key for teams is to minimize potential damage while slotting strong upside into a small piece of a gigantic puzzle, then making it execute well on the court. 

Sounds so simple, right? With a few weeks left before the big day, here's a look at an updated mock and a few prospects who present the most risk to teams in the mid-first round.

2016 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
1	Los Angeles Rams	Jared Goff	QB	California
2	Cleveland Browns	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota State
3	San Diego Chargers	Jalen Ramsey	CB/S	Florida State
4	Dallas Cowboys	Myles Jack	LB	UCLA
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	Florida
6	Baltimore Ravens	Laremy Tunsil	OT	Ole Miss
7	San Francisco 49ers	Joey Bosa	DL	Ohio State
8	Philadelphia Eagles	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Darron Lee	LB	Ohio State
10	New York Giants	Reggie Ragland	LB	Alabama
11	Chicago Bears	DeForest Buckner	DE	Oregon
12	New Orleans Saints	Noah Spence	DE/LB	Eastern Kentucky
13	Miami Dolphins	Mackensie Alexander	CB	Clemson
14	Oakland Raiders	William Jackson III	CB	Houston
15	Tennessee Titans	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
16	Detroit Lions	Jack Conklin	OT	Michigan State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Shaq Lawson	LB	Clemson
18	Indianapolis Colts	A'Shawn Robinson	DT	Alabama
19	Buffalo Bills	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis
20	New York Jets	Jonathan Bullard	DE	Florida
21	Washington	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
22	Houston Texans	Robert Nkemdiche	DL	Ole Miss
23	Minnesota Vikings	Josh Doctson	WR	TCU
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Laquon Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Eli Apple	CB	Ohio State
26	Seattle Seahawks	Leonard Floyd	LB	Georgia
27	Green Bay Packers	Sheldon Rankins	DT	Louisville
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Michael Thomas	WR	Ohio State
29	Arizona Cardinals	Nile Lawrence-Stample	DT	Florida State
30	Carolina Panthers	Kevin Dodd	DE	Clemson
31	Denver Broncos	Jason Spriggs	OT	Indiana

Riskiest Mid-1st-Round Picks

18. Indianapolis Colts: A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

The interior defensive line might be the most difficult position to figure out this year, though most commonly the first-round honors go to Sheldon Rankins out of Louisville and the Alabama duo of Jarran Reed and A'Shawn Robinson. 

Rankins looks like the surest thing at the position as a Geno Atkins-esque force, but Robinson is a different story.

Playing at Alabama is nice, as is a 6'4", 307-pound frame. But of all the tackles named, Robinson is the least proven and fits the "project" descriptor well, seeing as he looks raw in so many areas. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein summed it up:

"

As opposed to teammate Jarran Reed who already plays with polish, Robinson is a projection-­oriented two-­gapper who can step in right away and help plug holes in a leaky run defense. If Robinson can improve his leverage issues and pass rushing, he has all-­pro potential; however, he’s not a sure thing to become a star. 

"

Again, much of the draft leans on a hope that potential blossoms into something special. With Robinson, though, there isn't much documentation saying what folks hope he can be has actually happened on the field.

Not that this will stop a team such as the Indianapolis Colts from drafting him. The Colts need help at all levels of the 3-4 unit but could especially use a new face in the trenches after ranking 24th against the pass and 25th against the rush last year.

It's certainly a smart schematic fit, but the Colts have to hope the rest pans out.

19. Buffalo Bills: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

If one balled up all the draft process right now and tossed it at a wall, the resulting splatter would paint a picture of Paxton Lynch having never really been in the conversation to be the first quarterback off the board. 

It's not a bad thing, especially if Lynch wants to avoid bust status.

While Carson Wentz and Jared Goff will need to start in the NFL right away and probably find themselves on short leashes, Lynch figures to fall to the middle of the round—and if he's lucky, he'll land with a team that wants him to learn rather than start right away.

One such team might be the Buffalo Bills. The team hasn't given Tyrod Taylor an extension, meaning the team might not believe in him as a starter for the long term.

Lynch certainly fits what the Bills like under center. He's 6'7" and 244 pounds with a booming arm and an ability to carve out yards as a rusher. As NFL Network's Rand Getlin noted, he's also quietly done well for himself on the path to the draft:

The problem with Lynch is his attractive dual-threat capabilities haven't shown any sign of being ready for the pro level just yet. He'll extend plays with his feet and smartly not just take off downfield, but he'll struggle with reads and not actually get rid of the football.

Still, Lynch lands in a perfect slot in this scenario. Sans the pressure of winning right away, the Memphis product can take notes from Taylor and perhaps make the Bills look great for taking the risk.

22. Houston Texans: Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss

One of the most hyped prospects in a long time, Robert Nkemdiche spiraled down the drain toward the end of last year's collegiate season and hasn't done a ton to rehab his stock.

Still a mid-round prospect, though, Nkemdiche now quietly represents one of the bigger risks in the event.

Everything checks out on paper. The Ole Miss product comes in at 6'3" and 294 pounds with an explosive ability to overwhelm gaps and get around blockers to hit quarterbacks. He's strong enough to hold up at the point of attack, too.

The rest is where things falter. Nkemdiche had off-field issues to close his college career. The process hasn't massaged these issues a ton, nor has film breakdown helped any lingering on-field questions. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller provided some perspective:

For a heralded, almost perfect prospect on paper and the hype that came with it, Nkemdiche simply doesn't flash enough on film to the point one wouldn't be out of line questioning his motivation.

Again, the right situation will be key. A team such as the Houston Texans will see the upside and the need for the perfect environment for Nkemdiche and pull the trigger. Look at it this way: There arguably isn't a better place for Nkemdiche to get motivated and learn via example than on the same line as J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork. 

The upside at No. 22, especially when Wilfork hangs up the cleats, is one of the best values in the draft. The risk might also be the highest, too. 

Stats are courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of April 17. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.