2016 NFL Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions and Prospects Ready for Early Impact

When the fate of an NFL general manager can hinge on the success or failure of his draft selections, you can't fault said general manager for being a bit risk-averse.

Drafting well has always been one of the staples of a successful franchise. It's no coincidence the Cleveland Browns are perpetually one of the worst teams in the league or that the San Francisco 49ers were ill-equipped to handle the massive personnel losses they've suffered in the last few seasons.

But when Brock Osweiler is getting a four-year, $72 million deal after making just seven NFL starts in four years, extracting value from the draft becomes even more paramount.

The four players below offer value in security. They may have issues that could prevent them from being the best at their respective positions in a few years, but they should all make an immediate impact for their new teams in 2016.

Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tennessee Titans	Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State
2	Cleveland Browns	Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
3	San Diego Chargers	DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
4	Dallas Cowboys	Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA
6	Baltimore Ravens	Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
7	San Francisco 49ers	Jared Goff, QB, California
8	Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins)	Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
10	New York Giants	Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
11	Chicago Bears	Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
12	New Orleans Saints	Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
13	Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles)	Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
14	Oakland Raiders	Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
15	Los Angeles Rams	Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
16	Detroit Lions	Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
18	Indianapolis Colts	Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
19	Buffalo Bills	A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
20	New York Jets	Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame
21	Washington Redskins	Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss
22	Houston Texans	Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
23	Minnesota Vikings	Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
26	Seattle Seahawks	Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
27	Green Bay Packers	Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
29	Arizona Cardinals	Vonn Bell, SS, Ohio State
30	Carolina Panthers	Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
31	Denver Broncos	Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State

Prospects Who Will Deliver Immediate Impact

Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Occasionally, teams will gamble on an offensive tackle who possesses great physical gifts but isn't quite the finished product in terms of technique. Sometimes, it works; other times—Greg Robinson immediately comes to mind—the result is nothing short of a disaster.

Jack Conklin doesn't fall into that category. If anything, one of his biggest issues is his lack of supreme athleticism. Conklin may struggle to play left tackle in the NFL because he isn't quick enough to handle pass-rushers coming off the edge.

However, the former Michigan State Spartan is the best run-blocker in this year's draft, and he's equipped to step onto an NFL field and start in Week 1. Although right tackles aren't as coveted as left tackles, SB Nation's Stephen White argued they remain a valuable commodity:

"

With Conklin's size [6'6", 308 lbs], speed [5.00 40-yard dash] and position versatility, I think he has a bright future ahead of him in the NFL. I know some folks don't value right tackle as highly as some other positions on the offensive line in the first round, but ask yourself how differently the Super Bowl might have turned out had the Panthers had a better player at that position. I bet the Panthers are going to spend damn near the whole offseason pondering exactly the same question as they try to get back to the big show.

"

Conklin doesn't have the NFL ceiling Laremy Tunsil and Ronnie Stanley both boast. Tunsil and Stanley are more athletic and more suited to play on the left side of the line. That won't stop Conklin from having a productive career, though. He's the kind of player whose relative lack of upside is canceled out by his high floor.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

Laquon Treadwell is a strong example of why it's important to keep a player's combine and pro-day performances in perspective. Treadwell didn't run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. When he did at Ole Miss' pro day, he finished his two attempts in 4.63 and 4.65 seconds.

The MMQB's Robert Klemko spoke to an NFL talent evaluator who wasn't put off by the less than ideal times.

"The thing is, I think he ran what people expected him to," the evaluator said. "It’s not a good time, but this is the kind of player where all you have to do is turn on the tape to understand that he plays faster than that."

Two bad 40-yard dashes don't disqualify a player who caught 202 passes for 2,393 yards and 21 touchdowns in three years with the Rebels. Imagine what Treadwell's numbers would've looked like if he had stayed healthy as a sophomore or if Ole Miss had a better quarterback than Bo Wallace in 2013 and 2014.

Going back to the last five years, below are the top 15 rookie receivers in terms of yards and what they ran at the combine, courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com's play index:

Rank	Player	Rec.	Yards	TD	40-Yard Dash (sec)
1	Odell Beckham Jr.	91	1,305	12	4.43
2	Amari Cooper	72	1,070	6	4.42
3	A.J. Green	65	1,057	7	4.50
4	Mike Evans	68	1,051	12	4.53
5	Keenan Allen	71	1,046	8	4.58
6	Kelvin Benjamin	73	1,008	9	4.61
7	Sammy Watkins	65	982	6	4.43
8	Julio Jones	54	959	8	4.39
9	Jordan Matthews	67	872	8	4.46
10	Justin Blackmon	64	865	5	4.41 *Okla. St. Pro Day
11	T.Y. Hilton	50	861	7	4.36* FIU Pro Day
12	Torrey Smith	50	841	7	4.43
13	Josh Gordon	50	805	5	-----
14	DeAndre Hopkins	52	802	2	4.57
15	Doug Baldwin	51	788	4	----

Clearly, it helps to be really fast. Yet Mike Evans, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins all ran over 4.5 seconds, while Kelvin Benjamin clocked in at over 4.6 seconds.

Treadwell's poor 40 time cost him some money, since he'll be drafted later than many projected him to go immediately after the season ended. But he's still a great pass-catcher who can run a variety of routes. Those two skills will make him an immediate hit in the NFL.

Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Like Conklin, Reggie Ragland almost certainly won't hear his name in the top 10 to a certain extent for factors out of his control. Teams aren't in an arms race to secure the best inside linebackers available, and only one or two inside linebackers end up going in the first round at all. Also like Conklin, Ragland isn't an otherworldly athlete when compared to some of his peers.

None of that will preclude the Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker from becoming a consistent starter in his rookie season, especially if he lands with the right defensive scheme.

At the Senior Bowl, Ragland featured at outside linebacker, which he saw as a great opportunity.

"I just want to show that I can cover and rush the passer. I want to show that I can do multiple things at the next level," he said in January, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. "I know I can play inside, but I want to be able to show that I can play outside too. If a guy goes down, I want to show I can go out there and play it too and not miss a beat."

Especially on a team such as the Green Bay Packers, Ragland would have no trouble hitting the ground running. Their 3-4 base defense would suit him perfectly, while the presences of Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews on the edge would lessen the need for him to rush the passer.

Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

It's possible for Joey Bosa to not be as good as J.J. Watt and still be an All-Pro-caliber defensive end/hybrid linebacker in the NFL. Any comparisons to Watt are unfair because it's almost impossible for any college player to match up with the best player in the league at his respective position.

Bosa is more than talented in his own right. Some have questioned whether the former Ohio State Buckeyes star has what it takes to be an elite pass-rusher, but that line of criticism doesn't do justice to everything else the defensive end can do:

Fans expecting Bosa to deliver sack totals similar to Watt or peak-era Jared Allen will be disappointed. He has more in common with Justin Smith, who was a disruptive presence along the defensive line for the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers but never registered double-digit sacks in a season.

Those on Bosa's bandwagon got a little ahead of themselves after he had 13.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss as a sophomore. Some of his flaws were exposed a bit more in his junior year as opposing coaches paid him more attention.

In a way, that has benefited Bosa, since teams should have a more realistic gauge on his NFL ceiling and how to best utilize him.