NFL Mock Draft 2016: Bold 1st-Round Projections for Top Prospects

One year ago, if someone had suggested a prediction as bold as two running backs coming off the board in the top 15, most people would have laughed the prognosticator out of town.

It happened, though, with Todd Gurley going 10th and Melvin Gordon going 15th. 

Some bold predictions come out of left field for odd reasons. Most, though, are grounded in a reality that is not too difficult to see happening, such as certain NFL teams being unable to pass on stunning running back prospects despite how easy it is to draft the position in later rounds.

Before we make a few bold predictions, here's a look at an updated mock draft based on team need and prospect stock.

2016 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Player	Position	School
1	Tennessee Titans	Laremy Tunsil	OT	Ole Miss
2	Cleveland Browns	Jared Goff	QB	California
3	San Diego Chargers	Jalen Ramsey	CB/S	Florida State
4	Dallas Cowboys	Myles Jack	LB	UCLA
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Vernon Hargreaves III	CB	Florida
6	Baltimore Ravens	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
7	San Francisco 49ers	Joey Bosa	DL	Ohio State
8	Philadelphia Eagles	Jack Conklin	OT	Michigan State
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Darron Lee	LB	Ohio State
10	New York Giants	Reggie Ragland	LB	Alabama
11	Chicago Bears	DeForest Buckner	DE	Oregon
12	New Orleans Saints	Noah Spence	DE/LB	Eastern Kentucky
13	Miami Dolphins	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
14	Oakland Raiders	Mackensie Alexander	CB	Clemson
15	Los Angeles Rams	Carson Wentz	QB	North Dakota State
16	Detroit Lions	Taylor Decker	OT	Ohio State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Shaq Lawson	LB	Clemson
18	Indianapolis Colts	A'Shawn Robinson	DT	Alabama
19	Buffalo Bills	Paxton Lynch	QB	Memphis
20	New York Jets	Jonathan Bullard	DE	Florida
21	Washington	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
22	Houston Texans	Robert Nkemdiche	DL	Ole Miss
23	Minnesota Vikings	Josh Doctson	WR	TCU
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Laquon Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Eli Apple	CB	Ohio State
26	Seattle Seahawks	Leonard Floyd	LB	Georgia
27	Green Bay Packers	Sheldon Rankins	DT	Louisville
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Michael Thomas	WR	Ohio State
29	Arizona Cardinals	Nile Lawrence-Stample	DT	Florida State
30	Carolina Panthers	Kevin Dodd	DE	Clemson
31	Denver Broncos	Jason Spriggs	OT	Indiana

Bold Predictions for Top Prospects

3. San Diego Chargers: Jalen Ramsey, CB/S, Florida State

This prediction isn't fun to make, but here goes—Florida State's Jalen Ramsey will take a fall to No. 3 with the San Diego Chargers. 

Ramsey is the best player in the draft. But barring a trade, the Tennessee Titans have to worry about protecting Marcus Mariota, and the new coaching staff with the Cleveland Browns has to find its quarterback or run the risk of going one-and-done.

That leaves Ramsey with the Chargers, giving the team a major value, even two spots after No. 1. Rest assured the Titans continue to do due diligence on the star defensive back, as noted by NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:

What's the deal with Ramsey? Other than a solid 6'1", 209-pound frame and track-star speed, the Florida State product spent time at every spot in the defensive secondary in college—that's a dose of versatility that few prospects can ever boast and few pros even reach.

Ramsey is an immediate starter with a ceiling as one of the best in the league. It's perfect if he falls to the Chargers, too, after they lost Eric Weddle and could use more in the way of quality at corner alongside Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward.

With a chip on his shoulder for not coming off the board first, Denver and the rest of the AFC West have a problem when Ramsey arrives.

15. Los Angeles Rams: Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

This won't be popular, but the hype around Carson Wentz will swirl down the drain at some point. 

Wentz absolutely looks the part at 6'5" and 237 pounds and can zing the ball deep with good mechanics. His small-school status isn't a major knock, as level of competition is one of the silliest things to use to judge a player—ask Joe Flacco or look at a guy this year like Noah Spence.

But Wentz's hype feels like more a product of the class than himself. To elaborate—there isn't much to talk about in this class at the position other than Wentz and Jared Goff. Paxton Lynch is a major project, and so is everyone else, from Christian Hackenberg all the way down to Cardale Jones.

Now that the hype around Wentz's pro day has settled (has anyone ever had a bad pro day?), deeper analysis continues to creep out, such as this note by PFF College, which shows Wentz isn't as great at pushing the ball down the field as some thought after watching drills:

Wentz won't fall farther than No. 15 on draft day. The Los Angeles Rams have a new locale and need a building block under center so that Gurley's talent doesn't go to waste.

But Wentz's stock has seemed manufactured at points, especially after his pro day. What else would folks talk about if it wasn't Wentz torching a drill in a friendly environment? What other quarterbacks are there to talk about? Last year spoiled the globe when Mariota and Jameis Winston fought over the first slot.

In today's NFL, it's just hard to see a team trading up to grab a project like Wentz when a proven pro like Ryan Fitzpatrick still sits on the market. Wentz will still come off the board high, but any top-10 talk seems a stretch in a rather boring class.

Not that the Rams will complain.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

Laquon Treadwell won't be the first wideout off the board this year.

It's a major departure from the buzz surrounding the class for the better part of a year, but Treadwell isn't as fast as some teams would prefer. It's a small part of the reason Treadwell will slip a bit, as some teams already have a guy like him and now need a burner or refined route-runner.

Treadwell won't fall far, though. Perhaps the best comparison is Dez Bryant, as Treadwell comes in at 6'2" and 221 pounds with the ability to go up and get the ball at its highest point better than anyone else in class.

An AFC scout put it best, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein: "He's going to get beat up because he's slow, but I like everything else he does. You would think scouts would learn about overestimating speed and underestimating tape. He'll go in the first but not sure how high."

A few months ago, mocking Treadwell at No. 24 seemed bold because many thought he'd go higher. Now it's bold in the other direction, with folks too worried about straight-line speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals won't share such concerns. While the team added Brandon LaFell in free agency to help soothe the losses of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, drafting Treadwell to take pressure off A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert makes plenty of sense.

Speed doesn't matter much if a quarterback can loft it up with the confidence in knowing Treadwell will win against smaller defenders every time. It doesn't matter if the defender is there first if it's a no-contest.

Treadwell's stock is at an all-time low, and Cincinnati is ready to take advantage of the misguided dip.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of April 8. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.