2016 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Boom-or-Bust Prospects

The history of the NFL draft is littered with general managers betting big and losing on risky first-round draft picks. The 2016 edition will be no different.

Especially with player salaries climbing higher and higher, it's becoming even more important to find value in the draft. Even the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos, who signed marquee free agents, relied on a number of homegrown stars such as Von Miller, Malik Jackson, Demaryius Thomas and Danny Trevathan.

Conversely, no franchise has fallen harder and faster than the San Francisco 49ers. They've lost a number of personnel in a short period of time, and their number of draft failures meant they didn't have immediate reinforcements to fill the voids.

Taking that into account, teams will be extra careful when identifying which players are considered bigger gambles than a typical early-round pick. Below is a first-round mock, followed by three players whose boom-or-bust potential will keep general managers up at night both before and after the draft.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tennessee Titans	Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State
2	Cleveland Browns	Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
3	San Diego Chargers	DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
4	Dallas Cowboys	Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA
6	Baltimore Ravens	Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
7	San Francisco 49ers	Jared Goff, QB, California
8	Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins)	Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida
10	New York Giants	Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
11	Chicago Bears	Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
12	New Orleans Saints	Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
13	Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles)	Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky
14	Oakland Raiders	Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
15	Los Angeles Rams	Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
16	Detroit Lions	Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
17	Atlanta Falcons	Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
18	Indianapolis Colts	Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
19	Buffalo Bills	A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
20	New York Jets	Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame
21	Washington Redskins	Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss
22	Houston Texans	Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
23	Minnesota Vikings	Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
26	Seattle Seahawks	Germain Ifedi, OT, Texas A&M
27	Green Bay Packers	Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
29	Arizona Cardinals	Vonn Bell, SS, Ohio State
30	Carolina Panthers	Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
31	Denver Broncos	Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State

Boom-or-Bust Prospects

Noah Spence, DE, Eastern Kentucky

Saying that Noah Spence has a few red flags would be an understatement. In an August 2015 interview with ESPN.com's Brian Bennett, Spence admitted he frequently used ecstasy during his days at Ohio State, including on Saturdays during the season.

"I got real caught up in the college lifestyle," he said. "Every weekend, I was doing too much. I was young and stupid and I thought I could go out and party all the time."

In May 2015, officers in Richmond, Kentucky, arrested Spence on charges of public alcohol consumption and second-degree disorderly conduct.

Despite his off-field issues, an NFL team will take a chance on Spence, likely in the first round. He had 11.5 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss with Eastern Kentucky last year, and he can be used in a variety of ways on the front seven. More than likely, Spence will spend most of his time at outside linebacker, where he can rush the passer.

As if the off-field issues aren't enough to add risk to Spence, Bleacher Report's Chris Simms highlighted in the video above some of his possible failings as a pass-rusher that could limit his effectiveness. Teams will have to think hard about whether they're prepared to take the leap of faith and select the former Big Ten standout.

Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss

No player carries more risk in terms of potential than Robert Nkemdiche. The Ole Miss Rebels star might be the next dominant defensive lineman, or he could be the biggest draft bust since Dion Jordan, who missed the whole of the 2015 through suspension.

Questions already existed about Nkemdiche as a player. Pro Football Focus' John Breitenbach explained one of his limitations in college:

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That first step is useless, however, when Nkemdiche reads the play incorrectly. He lacks the instincts to quickly diagnose, frequently finding himself completely taken out of plays by misdirection. His inability to anchor against double teams is also a major concern. Every NFL defensive tackle must take on multiple blockers from time to time. Nkemdiche’s performance in those instances is best described as embarrassing. Ultimately, he could prove an impact pro, or he could be out of the league in three years.

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Nkemdiche himself even admitted he lost his focus on the field for Ole Miss.

"I was lazy on some plays at times, but I told [NFL teams] I'm going to keep growing as a player," he said at the NFL Scouting Combine, per Katherine Terrell of NOLA.com. "I'm going to keep learning how to finish and keep becoming more of a student of the game and just focus on being the best NFL player I can be."

Of course, Nkemdiche is going to say all the right things when his first NFL payday is on the line. Given those comments, it's more than fair to wonder whether he can make the most of his physical gifts at the next level, where he can't get by on his strength and athleticism alone.

There's also the incident in Atlanta when he fell out of a hotel window. Authorities charged Nkemdiche with marijuana possession, but he claimed to only be drunk, not high, prior to the fall. Regardless of the details, it raises more doubt about whether he can reach his NFL ceiling.

Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Unlike the two players above, Jaylon Smith's issues are purely health-related. ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported in January that Smith suffered a torn ACL and MCL in Notre Dame's Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State.

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller put pre-injury Smith on par with Myles Jack in terms of draft grades. In a conference call on April 2, ESPN's Todd McShay (via MLive.com's Scott DeCamp) also explained the Fighting Irish linebacker was widely considered among the best in the draft:

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The whole deal with Smith is medical. He's a top-five player in this draft. I know of one team and it wouldn't surprise me if there were more, that based off of early grades they were getting together as a group, that Jaylon Smith is the No. 1 player in this year's draft – he's that good and he got better every year. It all comes down to medical. He would be a top-five pick, highly likely, if that injury did not occur ... . Terribly unfortunate situation for him.

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According to Paul Skrbina of the Chicago Tribune, Smith will have the knee evaluated later this month, the results of which will go a long way toward solidifying his draft stock. Assuming his rehabilitation is going well, he could sneak into the first round.