MLB Spring Training 2016: Ranking the Most Alarming Superstar Performances
Spring training really shouldn't be freakout season. But then, what the heck else are we supposed to do? Not freak out?
No way, man. It can't be done. Especially not when so many superstar players don't look the part.
We're going to focus on 10 superstars in particular whose performances in the spring exhibition season can't be ignored. Maybe said performance is validating our fears of an upcoming regression. Maybe there's an injury at play. Maybe something just isn't right. Or, maybe all of the above.
We'll start our list with the least concerning poor performance and end with the most concerning poor performance, and each assessment includes an appropriate "Freakout Meter" description.
10. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
1 of 10
C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer proposed this week that Adrian Beltre might be the most underappreciated player of our time. The 36-year-old has been one of the best third basemen in the game for a long time now, so Rosecrans just might be right.
At some point, though, the Texas Rangers veteran is bound to hit a wall. His spring may suggest that wall has arrived.
The .742 OPS Beltre has this spring isn't too far off from the .788 OPS he posted last season, but it's misleading. Take away his power, and you're left with a .250 average and a .242 on-base percentage. He's also struck out once every 3.2 at-bats, compared to once every 8.7 at-bats in 2015.
If Beltre was going into, say, his age-27 season, we could shrug and say, "Whatever." But he's going into his age-37 season. His impressive string of six seasons with a WAR of five or better is a good bet to end, as that's a mark only two 37-year-old third basemen have ever reached.
Still, the concerns about Beltre only go so far. His age adds a cloud over his rough spring, but perhaps it bodes well that rough springs have been a pattern for him. And apart from him possibly being distracted by extension talks, there's no underlying explanation for his slow spring.
Freakout Meter: Eh, Probably Nothing
9. David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
2 of 10
It's a question that's been on a lot of minds since the news came down in November, and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe worded it best: "What if David Ortiz doesn't fare well in his farewell?"
It doesn't seem too likely in the wake of Ortiz's 2015 season, as the Boston Red Sox's longtime designated hitter OPS'd .913 with 37 home runs. But Big Papi has looked nothing like that this spring. In 12 games, he's hit just .200 with zero walks and one extra-base hit.
Of course, Ortiz is in the same boat as Adrian Beltre in that slow springs are nothing new. Also, last spring's modest .633 OPS wasn't followed by his 39 years finally catching up to him in the regular season.
But lest anyone forget, Ortiz did seem to be feeling his age for a time. Through his first 52 games, he was hitting just .219 with a .670 OPS and six home runs. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if a similar slow start in 2016 lasted much longer. Big Papi is entering his age-40 season, after all, and that's when the production he's used to is rare.
It's not all bad, though. Ortiz has three years on Beltre, so his spring is slightly more concerning, but there's not much else to explain what's going on. Ortiz is in good health, and he's told reporters he'd rather focus on the game than let his impending retirement become a "distraction."
Freakout Meter: Meh
8. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees
3 of 10
We could stop at two old-timers, but why do that when we also have Mark Teixeira to fret over?
Yes, we're back to doing that again. Following a huge return-to-form season in which he OPS'd .906 with 31 home runs, the veteran New York Yankees first baseman has hit just .121 with a .388 OPS this spring. He has just one extra-base hit, and—as is the case with David Ortiz—it wasn't a home run.
Now, that last part might not sound like news. Teixeira generally doesn't show off his home run stroke in spring training, as he's hit all of one homer in the last five springs combined. Why should this power outage be any more concerning than the last four?
Well, partially because it suggests last year's long ball outburst might be too good to be true. It reversed a steady power decline, which is the kind of thing that doesn't usually happen in a hitter's age-35 season. And looking ahead to 2016, there's not a ton of precedent for 36-year-old hitters who mash 30 homers.
There are also bigger-picture circumstances at play here. The Texas Rangers have top prospect Joey Gallo to fill in for a struggling Adrian Beltre. The Boston Red Sox could have Hanley Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval step in at designated hitter for a struggling David Ortiz. But Greg Bird's season-long absence means the Yankees will be hard-pressed to find a stand-in at first base if Teixeira struggles.
Freakout Meter: Fingers Crossed
7. Justin Upton, LF, Detroit Tigers
4 of 10
When you sign a guy for north of $130 million over six years, you want to see a fast start.
Justin Upton is not obliging the Detroit Tigers. Coming off a three-year run in which he averaged an .814 OPS and 27 home runs, the 28-year-old is hitting just .189 with a .550 OPS this spring. He has one extra-base hit (a double) and has struck out 15 times in 37 at-bats.
Contrary to Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz, this kind of production is out of the ordinary for Upton, whose career OPS in spring training is .858. Between that and the number of dollars the Tigers are pumping into his bank account, it's no surprise Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported there's "some concern" in Detroit camp about Upton.
There may be an underlying cause here. Though the left ankle injury Upton suffered March 9 wasn't supposed to be serious, perhaps it's lingered.
Even if that's not the case, Upton's slow spring is a reminder he's one of the streakiest hitters alive. If it portends a slow start to 2016, the Tigers will have one less impact bat with which to face early-season opponents such as the New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians.
Freakout Meter: Getting Impatient
6. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
5 of 10
They don't make 'em much more reliable than Madison Bumgarner. The San Francisco Giants ace has posted an ERA under 3.00 and topped 200 innings in each of the last three seasons. And of course, there was what he did in the 2014 postseason.
But for all his might, Bumgarner is having trouble this spring. Foot and ribcage injuries have limited the 26-year-old to four starts, and he's put up an 11.12 ERA in 11.1 innings. He's also given up 21 hits.
The good news is that, as Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs noted in 2012, spring ERAs are "completely useless" as predictive tools. Strikeout and walk percentages are better, and that's where Bumgarner has things covered with a solid 12-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Nonetheless, there are real concerns at play with Bumgarner. His injuries raise the question of whether his body may finally be feeling the workload he's shouldered in his young career. And according to the man himself, his mechanics are out of whack.
"My delivery was terrible," he said after his third spring start, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. "It's not quite where I want it. It's not too far away either. My timing is off, and my rhythm."
Bumgarner's track record is much too strong for anyone to go into panic mode. But since his poor spring isn't happening by accident, there's no escaping the notion it could carry over into the regular season.
Freakout Meter: Nervous Sweat
5. Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
6 of 10
Kris Bryant did the seemingly impossible by living up to the hype last season. With an .858 OPS and 26 home runs, he emerged as the next big thing.
But so far this spring, the Chicago Cubs third baseman hasn't looked like the guy who lit the world on fire with a .425 average and nine home runs last spring. He's hitting a solid .275 with an .826 OPS but has just one home run.
If there were nothing different about Bryant, we could let that lie. But there is something different, and it's enough to give us pause.
As Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reported, Bryant brought a new swing to camp this year. With the idea being to cut down on last year's National League-high 199 strikeouts, he addressed the uppercut in his swing and made it "a little flatter."
Because he's struck out only once every four at-bats after whiffing once every 2.8 at-bats in 2015, he seems to be getting his wish. But though Bryant told Gonzales this week he expects to hit more line-drive home runs with his new swing, that hasn't been the case.
That makes it easy to wonder if he's about to trade power for contact. Considering he has enough raw power to hit as many as 40 home runs year in and year out, that doesn't sound like a fair deal.
Freakout Meter: Fairly Alarmed
4. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees
7 of 10
Hey, it just wouldn't be spring training if we weren't worried about Masahiro Tanaka.
The difference this spring, though, is he actually looks like a pitcher worth worrying about. After largely dominating in 2014 and 2015, the right-hander has hit a snag. In four starts, he has a 7.36 ERA with 16 hits allowed in 11 innings. And though his 9-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio is good, it's less than great.
Beyond the numbers, Tanaka just hasn't looked right. New York Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild wondered aloud whether the 27-year-old has been holding back so as to not aggravate his surgically repaired right elbow. Though that's understandable, Rothschild wants to see Tanaka test his limits.
"I think he went about it the right way in spring training, but now the time comes where you just throw the ball the way you're capable and all the rest of it is kind of put to the wayside," Rothschild said, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
This isn't the first time Tanaka has pitched like he's concerned about his arm. That was a trend in parts of 2015, and it was most noticeable in Tanaka's downgraded fastball usage. He basically turned into a nibbler, which resulted in a less dominant season than his 2014 breakthrough.
If Tanaka doesn't get squared away, he may not live up to his status as the supposed ace of the Yankees staff. Considering the question marks elsewhere in the rotation, that's not what they want.
Freakout Meter: Flashing Red Lights
3. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
8 of 10
Xander Bogaerts remembered how to hit in 2015, upping his average to .320 all the way from .240 the year before.
Now, it seems he's forgotten again. Though there are worse numbers than his .670 OPS, the Boston Red Sox's shortstop is hitting just .244 with a .304 on-base percentage.
This could be because the 23-year-old is trying to get away from the approach that worked so well for him in 2015. His success had a lot to do with a sudden Derek Jeter-like ability to poke inside fastballs to right field. But as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reported, Bogaerts is focusing on trying to pull inside heat this spring.
The idea is presumably to tap back into the power Bogaerts showed as a prospect. As nice as his 2015 season was, Matthew Kory of FanGraphs noted that Bogaerts essentially became a slap hitter. But at the same time, the question looms: Why fix something that ain't broke?
And even if Bogaerts goes back to the approach that worked for him in 2015, his numbers this spring may end up being prophetic. At the heart of last year's .320 average was a .372 batting average on balls in play, per Baseball Reference, which came despite the fact he made more soft contact and less hard contact than the average hitter.
Basically, if Bogaerts' adjusted approach doesn't get him, regression might.
Freakout Meter: Sound the Alarm
2. James Shields, SP, San Diego Padres
9 of 10
Pardon us while we stretch the limits of the term "superstar," but James Shields hasn't quite hit bottom yet.
He's headed in that direction, though, and he's quickened his pace this spring. In three starts, the San Diego Padres veteran has a 6.00 ERA in nine innings, with a pedestrian 10-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Of the nine hits he's given up, four have left the yard.
Ho hum. Dingers were quite the problem for Shields in 2015, as he raised his ERA to 3.91 from 3.21 the year before and gave up 33 long balls to tie for the major league lead. In a related story, he lost 1.4 mph on his average fastball.
The latest news on that front isn't good. According to Brooks Baseball, the 34-year-old's velocity has taken another step down this spring. Given what happened last year, it follows that even less velocity will only make Shields more hittable.
According to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the rebuilding Padres have put Shields' name on the trading block this spring. But between his declining stuff and the $65 million (at least) it still owes him, San Diego shouldn't get its hopes up that he could bring back a bonanza.
Freakout Meter: Fire Everything
1. Jeff Samardzija, SP, San Francisco Giants
10 of 10
Jeff Samardzija, a superstar? Well, he was an All-Star as recently as 2014 and just signed a $90 million contract, so we'll allow it.
Now then, let us commence the freakout.
Samardzija came into his first spring with the San Francisco Giants looking to exorcise bad memories from a 2015 season that featured a 4.96 ERA and 228 hits (which led the majors) and 29 home runs allowed. That mission isn't going so well. The 31-year-old has racked up an 8.53 ERA in 19 innings, allowing 27 hits and striking out only 12.
For his part, Samardzija is not worried. He told Marcos Breton of the Sacramento Bee in mid-March: "Here in Arizona, that doesn't bother me too much. You're just trying to get your work in."
But Samardzija's numbers do bother us. Since he failed to prove he could succeed despite a below-average strikeout rate in 2015, his rate of 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings this spring gets the fear gland going. Ditto on his velocity readings, which suggest yet another step down awaits in 2016.
That is, he's not making last season look like a fluke. He's making it look like a warning.
Freakout Meter: The End is Nigh
Regular-season stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com. Contract information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on Baseball Prospectus.
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