Fantasy Baseball 2016: 7 Hitters to Avoid as Potential Bust Candidates
It's important to balance risk and upside when it comes to assembling a fantasy baseball roster, and one way to do that is by looking for signs of regression.
Production relative to players' previous track records, second-half declines and telling advanced statistics like batting average on balls in play (BABIP) can all help forecast player regression.
So who are the guys to avoid this year?
Ahead is a look at seven hitters, all of whom are currently being taken in the top 200 in drafts, who should be avoided at their current average draft positions, which come courtesy of FantasyPros.
Note: This article is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard five-by-five rotisserie scoring for hitters (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB) and pitchers (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Lineup construction assumes 22 active roster positions, consisting of one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.
C Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 178.8)
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2015 5x5 Rotisserie Stats
| .261 | 18 | 71 | 58 | 0 |
Why He's a Risk to Bust
A fan favorite as a part-time player, Stephen Vogt was given a chance at everyday at-bats for the first time last season, and he wound up earning a spot on the American League All-Star team.
He ranked among the catching leaders in OPS (.783, third), home runs (18, sixth) and RBI (71, fourth); on the surface, he was clearly one of the breakout stars of 2015.
However, it wasn't all good for the 31-year-old last year.
After a .287/.374/.498 line that included 14 home runs and 56 RBI during the first half, his production plummeted after the All-Star break, as he hit just .217/.280/.349 with four home runs and 15 RBI.
That makes it tough to know what to expect from him this season, but it looks like he could see a decline in playing time as a result of the roster makeup.
"With the addition of Yonder Alonso to go with Mark Canha and Billy Butler, Vogt will likely see a drop in at-bats," Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs wrote.
Perhaps that will keep him fresher and he can avoid a dramatic second-half decline, but that would take a bite out of his counting numbers, so it's a double-edged sword.
Rolling the dice on someone like Devin Mesoraco or Yan Gomes to rebound this season might be a better risk than hoping Vogt returns to his first-half form.
3B Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 157.0)
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2015 5x5 Rotisserie Stats
| .295 | 12 | 77 | 77 | 12 |
Why He's a Risk to Bust
Matt Duffy is a gamer and the kind of player who should be able to continue to get more out of his game than his physical tools might suggest.
However, there's also a real chance for regression over his surprising rookie numbers.
His .295 batting average was aided by a .336 BABIP, and dropping back toward the league average would mean a significant hit to his value.
"Quite a bit of Duffy's value will be BABIP driven...because he is a contact hitter," Zimmerman wrote. "Duffy is probably still a 12-team mixed league option, but more of a consolation prize than someone a target."
The other questionable number is his 12 home runs, a number that looks like an anomaly after he hit just 13 total home runs in 1,087 career minor league plate appearances.
Of those 12 long balls, eight came prior to the All-Star break, and that could be a sign the league adjusted to him.
Going forward, 10 dingers might be the best-case scenario, and once his eligibility is limited to third base exclusively, that won't play nearly as well.
Finally, a healthy season from Hunter Pence could mean Duffy winds up hitting lower in the lineup this year, which would mean fewer RBI opportunities.
2B DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 143.5)
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2015 5x5 Rotisserie Stats
| .301 | 6 | 61 | 85 | 23 |
Why He's a Risk to Bust
DJ LeMahieu made a name for himself as a Gold Glove winner in 2014, but he was by no means fantasy relevant, as he hit just .267/.315/.348 with 25 extra-base hits in the process.
That changed last season, though.
The 27-year-old set new personal bests across the board in batting average (.301), OPS (.746), hits (170), doubles (21), home runs (6), RBI (61), runs scored (85) and stolen bases (23).
So was that breakout performance the real deal?
Unfortunately, probably not.
LeMahieu still has a chance to be a fringe starter in mixed leagues as the unquestioned everyday starter in Colorado and someone who is capable of providing 20-plus steals and scoring plenty of runs.
However, a .362 BABIP last year makes him a prime candidate for batting average regression, and seeing as he doesn't provide much in the way of home runs or RBI, that takes a significant bite out of his value.
Fantasy owners are drafting him ahead of the likes of Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, Starlin Castro, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, Brandon Phillips and Howie Kendrick.
You'd be wise to grab any of those guys instead.
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OF Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 122.8)
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2015 5x5 Rotisserie Stats
| .304 | 10 | 31 | 30 | 0 |
Why He's a Risk to Bust
Home/road splits often get blown out of proportion when it comes to Colorado Rockies players, but in the case of Corey Dickerson, the numbers are worth highlighting.
His 2015 splits shaped up as follows:
- Home: .395/.446/.697, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 15 R
- Road: .257/.272/.453, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 15 R
His career numbers are not quite as dramatic, but they are significant nonetheless:
- Home: .355/.410/.675, 24 HR, 78 RBI, 84 R
- Road: .249/.286/.410, 15 HR, 46 RBI, 52 R
Moving to the Tampa Bay Rays and away from Coors Field is a big part of the reason Dickerson finds himself on this list, but it's not the only reason.
The 26-year-old is also coming off an injury-plagued 2015 season that saw him play just 65 games due to fractured ribs, and health questions coupled with a crowded outfield situation in Tampa add to the list of concerns.
Something like a .260-.270 average and 18-20 home runs would still make him a useful option, but guys like Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk and others being drafted below him are better picks.
2B Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians (ADP: 85.3)
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2015 5x5 Rotisserie Stats
| .303 | 9 | 52 | 86 | 12 |
Why He's a Risk to Bust
Jason Kipnis struggled through an injury-plagued season in 2014, hitting .240/.310/.330 after finishing 11th in AL MVP voting the previous season.
He rebounded nicely this past year, though, hitting .303/.372/.451 and ranking second in the American League with 43 doubles.
So what makes him a bust candidate?
A tremendous month of May largely inflated his numbers, as he hit .429/.511/.706 with 22 extra-base hits, but his production steadily declined from there.
The 28-year-old hit .271/.322/.394 with three home runs and 15 RBI after the All-Star break, and without his elite average, he wasn't nearly as valuable due to his lack of power and run production skills.
He also doesn't run like he used to, as he stole 12 bases in 20 attempts after piling up 83 thefts the previous three years with a pair of 30-steal performances.
With an average that looks poised to regress based on a mediocre second half and a .356 BABIP for the year, let someone else pay for Kipnis at a second base position that has quietly become one of the deepest on the diamond in recent years.
SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians (ADP: 75.3)
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2015 5x5 Rotisserie Stats
| .313 | 12 | 51 | 50 | 12 |
Why He's a Risk to Bust
There was never any doubt about Francisco Lindor's glove, but there were some legitimate questions as to whether or not he would hit enough to be a star-caliber player at the shortstop position.
A career .279/.354/.384 hitter in the minor leagues with no more than 11 home runs in a single season, he exploded for 22 doubles and 12 home runs in 390 at-bats after being promoted to the majors last year while also hitting at a .313/.353/.482 clip.
There's no reason to think he won't continue to hit for a solid average, but that .482 slugging percentage may not be a reasonable expectation going forward.
Here's what Chad Young of FanGraphs had to say:
"His .348 batting average on balls in play was higher than it has been since his pro debut in Low-A in 2011. ... While his 2015 yielded a 20/20 pace, a 10-12 HR with 20-ish steals sort of season is probably more reasonable. Don't ignore Lindor completely, just don't be surprised when he slots in as maybe the 8th-10th best fantasy shortstop instead of the top-five producer he looked like last year.
"
His plus speed will always mean a better-than-average BABIP, but there will almost certainly be some regression from the .348 mark he posted a year ago.
A .280 average with 10 home runs and 20 steals still make Lindor a fantasy-relevant shortstop, and that's probably what you should expect from him in his sophomore season.
DH Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 40.0)
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2015 5x5 Rotisserie Stats
| .302 | 44 | 93 | 90 | 3 |
Why He's a Risk to Bust
No one has hit more home runs over the past two seasons than the 84 launched by Nelson Cruz, but there is reason to think he won't repeat his 2015 performance.
We'll start with that .302 batting average.
Cruz had never before hit better than .271 in a season where he tallied at least 400 at-bats, and a .350 BABIP is a fairly significant red flag that he's headed for regression.
Assuming that levels out to his career mark of .306, you'd be looking at roughly a 40-point drop in batting average to the point that he'd no longer be an asset in that department.
Then there's the simple fact that he's 35 years old, and age is going to catch up with him sooner than later.
Zach Sanders of FanGraphs offered up the following:
"It’s not all sunshine and lollipops. ... Cruz has made it through a full season in each of the past four years, but he does have a long history of injuries which will likely crop up again, especially as he continues down the path towards retirement. While hitting the ball extremely hard, Cruz did benefit from some good fortune on balls in play last year -- combine that with a rising strikeout rate and you have a recipe for a batting average closer to his career mark of .273.
"
If his batting average regresses as expected, he'd be a three-category contributor, and that drop-off coupled with the risk that comes with a player his age makes him a prime candidate to bust.
All standard counting stats and WAR totals come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while advanced offensive statistics come via FanGraphs.
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