NFL Free Agents 2016: Who Are This Year's Biggest Risks?
As the old axiom goes, without risk, there is no reward.
That is NFL free agency in a nutshell.
Whether it be injuries, off-the-field issues, lack of depth at the position available or age, there's always a plethora of reasons why we as fans and speculators confirm our beliefs that a player is a risk for our favorite teams to sign.
For many teams, however, taking a risk on a player may be necessary to help put their respective franchises over the hump.
As time goes on, there are always players whose risk just outweighs the potential benefit, and that is fine. On the other hand, there is almost a moral conundrum based on the situation of whether you want to bring a guy in. Yeah, the skill could be there, but is it worth it?
These are decisions all 32 NFL teams make every offseason.
While there are many guys who present risk, here's eight of them.
Let's start with a cornerback.
Prince Amukamara, CB, New York Giants
1 of 8
Let me just get this out of the way: New York Giants cornerback Prince Amukamara is incredibly talented.
However, the risk with Amukamara is evident—he is hurt all the time.
Throughout his five-year career, Amukamara has missed a total of 25 games, including missing 13 games over the past two seasons.
While Amukamara has earned positive grades on Pro Football Focus each of the past four seasons, any team that signs him will obviously have his injury history in front of it before it makes the final call.
Is it fair to say it's wishful thinking that Amukamara could be a No. 1 cornerback on an NFL team?
Nick Fairley, DT, Los Angeles Rams
2 of 8
There are few players like Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Nick Fairley in the NFL.
Fairley could either be one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league or just another guy.
What separates the two is merely effort and injuries.
Before signing his one-year deal with the Rams this past offseason, there was plenty of speculation citing Fairley's effort and weight.
According to Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com, the Rams are unlikely to re-sign Fairley this offseason.
Whatever team nets Fairley will be getting a guy who has the potential to be a staple along its defensive line or a headache for one reason or another.
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
3 of 8
Throughout his NFL career, Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte has been one of the best running backs in the entire league.
Now done in Chicago, Forte will be elsewhere in 2016.
However, are we getting caught up in the facade that is the name Forte, or are we looking at this situation favorably from a production standpoint?
That's where you insert the risk.
Over the past two seasons, Forte has posted yards-per-carry averages of 3.9 and 4.1, respectively. These were his lowest totals since his rookie and sophomore seasons.
Late in the 2016 season, Forte will turn 31 years old.
Forte is most known for his ability in the passing game, but in 2015, he tied his lowest receptions total of his career.
We could very well see a team overpay for Forte.
Greg Hardy, DE, Dallas Cowboys
4 of 8
I'll keep this one short and sweet, as it is entirely obvious.
Dallas Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy is hands down one of the best players in this free-agent class.
Of course, the off-the-field issues are concerning.
This is the ultimate risk/reward scenario for any team in the NFL.
Where will Hardy end up in 2016, if anywhere?
Russell Okung, OT, Seattle Seahawks
5 of 8
The left tackle position is one of the most important positions in all of football.
Can an NFL team rely on Seattle Seahawks offensive tackle Russell Okung to take on that responsibility? Not so sure.
At the beginning of his career, Okung looked like one of the best young tackles in the game. But now, after injuries and whatever else, Okung has regressed mightily, receiving negative grades on Pro Football Focus over the last two seasons.
With the state of the position in the league and in the free-agent class, a team may need to take a chance on Okung.
Could he turn his career around in 2016?
Time will tell. We also need to see how he rebounds from the shoulder injury that ended his 2015 season.
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants
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Before his accident that resulted in losing portions of his hand, New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul was one of the NFL's most feared defensive linemen.
Now we have no idea.
For what it's worth, JPP played well in his limited action this past season, grading out nicely in pass rushing, according to Pro Football Focus.
Jordan Raanan of NJ.com reported that the Giants want to sign JPP to a one-year, "prove it" contract.
That may not be such a bad idea.
However, JPP and his agent believe that he can earn a multiyear deal this offseason.
He may, but is that a good investment for a team?
With 12 teams having $30 million or more in cap space, it could be easy to throw money at JPP.
The Giants' approach of a one-year deal makes sense from their point of view. They realize there is risk, and they want to see how he can play after his latest surgery and with the club or specially made glove on his hand in 2016.
JPP's hand will be something everyone will keep an eye on this offseason and in 2016, wherever he lands.
Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants
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I'm not entirely sure how three New York Giants players ended up in this column, but go with it.
While he may not be the most highly coveted free agent this offseason, Giants wide receiver Rueben Randle is a risk for any team that signs him.
Why? Consistency.
Oh, sure, anyone can look at a stat line of a game or a season and think Randle is a heck of a player.
Don't get me wrong, anyone with eyes is enamored with Randle's physical skills and traits, but the 24-year-old receiver has always had a problem with translating those gifts into consistent production.
In 2014, Randle was benched on a couple of occasions for missing meetings as well.
The intriguing aspect of Randle is that he is just 24 years old. The problem, however, is if a team can rely on Randle to be a contributing piece to its offense on a weekly basis as opposed to being hit or miss some weeks. Additionally, some of Randle's struggles in 2015 could be blamed on a knee injury suffered in the preseason that diluted his contributions until late in the season.
Raanan gives Randle a 15 percent chance of re-signing with the Giants—that is respectable.
What will net Randle a nice contract is the pure need for receivers around the league.
For Randle's sake, let's hope he figures it out. If he can put it all together, he could be quite the intimidating receiving threat in 2016 and beyond.
Mario Williams, DL, Buffalo Bills
8 of 8
According to Josina Anderson of ESPN, the Buffalo Bills have parted ways with embattled defensive lineman Mario Williams after four seasons with the team.
This comes with almost no surprise given Williams' play and reported attitude, per Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News.
One year removed from All-Pro-style playing, Williams will likely receive a ton of interest from teams around the league.
However, the attitude thing may be a problem for some teams in their evaluations of the pool of free agents.
You could make the argument Williams just wanted out of Buffalo. While that is entirely possible, you don't quit on the team just because you don't want to be someplace anymore; you grind it out until season's end.
But hey, what do I know, I'm the guy writing about these players.
Nonetheless, Williams is an insane talent. If he can prove to a team he can get on board with it, he'll thrive. But if the team goes south, will questions about his attitude pop up again from unnamed teammates? Who knows.
Williams needs to go to an immediate contender.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Contract details and numbers courtesy of Over the Cap.
Follow me on Twitter @RichardJanvrin
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