2016 MLB Rookies Who Are Being Hyped Up Too Early
It's not a disaster that rising stars like Corey Seager and J.P. Crawford landed berths on the list of 2016 MLB rookies who are being hyped up too soon.
What their inclusions signal is that these players performed so impressively in 2015 that they are both now facing monstrous expectations as the new campaign looms. The pair of shortstops represent the two types of players who cracked this list.
The first, like Seager, are guys who have tremendous upside but who also have extremely limited big league track records. The second, like Crawford, are players who have excelled in the minors but who are unlikely to live up to the buzz because they are long shots to earn major league jobs out of camp.
As it turns out, after singling out the five rookies for this list, Seager and Crawford aren't the only shortstops who made the grade.
Honorable Mentions
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Based on the criteria we just laid out, here are a few of the young big leaguers who just missed inclusion on this list of overhyped rookies:
- SP Steven Matz, New York Mets
- SP Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
- LF Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds
- LF Hector Olivera, Atlanta Braves
SS J.P. Crawford, Philadelphia Phillies
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2016 Opening Day Age: 21
2015 Highest Level: Double-A
The Breakdown
A back-to-back Futures Game selection, J.P. Crawford is on the fast track to Citizens Bank Park.
As the 21-year-old shortstop hurtles toward the bigs, he's already earning some lofty praise—the kind of praise that could put some outsized expectations on a prospect. Just take a gander at what Philadelphia Phillies bench coach Larry Bowa had to say about Crawford, per Matt Breen of Philly.com.
"This kid has some swagger, and it's not in a bad way," Bowa said. "His backhand is something that he's worked on. Jimmy [Rollins] didn't have a real good backhand, but he came down here and developed one of the best backhands in baseball. This kid is all ears right now. He wants to learn."
In addition to Rollins' old skipper, Tony Blengino of ESPN.com projected big things for Crawford in 2016. Blengino pegged the youngster to land in fourth place on the National League Rookie of the Year ballot.
"As far as upside goes, no one on this list, not even [Corey] Seager, surpasses Crawford," Blengino wrote. "This is a five-tool, left-handed-hitting shortstop that is quite comparable to [Francisco] Lindor one year ago."
The upside is legit, but it's still going to be awfully difficult for Crawford to finish so high in ROY voting. After all, Crawford hit .265 in 86 Double-A contests last season, and his first stop in 2016 will be a run in Triple-A.
1B A.J. Reed, Houston Astros
3 of 62016 Opening Day Age: 22
2015 Highest Level: Double-A
The Breakdown
A.J. Reed sent the hype machine into overdrive last summer, as he torched the minor leagues to the tune of a .340 average and 34 home runs while splitting his time between the Houston Astros' High-A and Double-A affiliates.
But even after that crazy-good showing, there are at least three reasons why you shouldn't be banking on seeing Reed with the Astros on Opening Day.
The first reason is that Reed has yet to make a single appearance in a Triple-A contest. There's also the consideration that Houston has a flood of first basemen battling for playing time this spring.
As skipper A.J. Hinch explained to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle, six or seven players—including vets like Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena—will be in on the derby.
Finally, there's the service-time angle to consider. By starting Reed off in the minors, Houston could delay the first baseman's clock from ticking and could potentially gain an extra season of club control.
SS Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
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2016 Opening Day Age: 22
2015 Highest Level: MLB
The Breakdown
Trea Turner is the shortstop of the future in the nation's capital.
The question for Turner and the Washington Nationals is: When exactly will that future arrive?
MLB.com dubbed Turner the No. 11 prospect in baseball after he hit .322 with 24 doubles and 29 steals as a 2015 Futures Game selection.
But like Crawford and Reed before him, Turner is no lock to head north with the big league squad when the Nats break camp.
Tuner hit .225 in a 27-game run with the National League East squad and will be up against Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew in the fight for the starting gig at short. Camp has only just begun, but Espinosa already sounds like the front-runner.
"Espinosa really looked good," manager Dusty Baker said, per Patrick Reddington of Federal Baseball. "I asked him, I said, 'You can tell,' I said, 'Man, you been hitting?' and he said, 'Yeah, I've been hitting hitting a lot,' and so...he's ready to take this job."
If Espinosa ends up taking the job, the Turner talk will be put on hold—at least for now.
SS Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2016 Opening Day Age: 21
2015 Highest Level: MLB
The Breakdown
Adrian Gonzalez is buying stock—a lot of stock—in rookie teammate Corey Seager.
The 33-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman had high words for Seager's game, per Doug Padilla of ESPN.com.
“I told this to Eric Young when we were playing against the [Colorado] Rockies last year and [Seager] was still in the minors," Gonzalez said. "We were talking about prospects, and I told him that [Seager] was a special kid, that he’s a kid that I could see being a Hall of Famer, and that was before anybody put him as a No. 1 prospect."
Seager certainly impressed last fall, as he hit .337 to steal the starting shortstop position away from Jimmy Rollins. Still, with just 27 games on his major league resume, it's awfully early to be discussing Seager's Cooperstown candidacy.
First, let's see if Seager can put together a stellar first full season before worrying about his place in the history of the sport.
CF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
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2016 Opening Day Age: 22
2015 Highest Level: MLB
The Breakdown
Based on the preseason buzz, Byron Buxton should have one monster season in 2016.
Entering the campaign, MLB.com tabbed the Minnesota Twins' center fielder of the future as the second-best farmhand in the game. Meanwhile, ESPN's Keith Law forecasted that Buxton will make the second-biggest impact among all prospects in 2016.
Buxton—who has 80-grade speed and an .872 career OPS in the minors—has the upside to fulfill those predictions. But even if he has the upside, he's far from a lock to put it all together.
Last season, Buxton endured a rough introduction to the big leagues, posting a .209 average and tallying just two steals in 46 games.
Until Buxton proves he can hack it at the highest level, the spotlight should instead be shone on his 22-year-old teammate, Miguel Sano, who already proved he's ready for the grandest stage by cracking 18 home runs in 80 games a season ago.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and MiLB.com. All videos courtesy of YouTube.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
