Predicting Boom or Bust on Each Hyped-up MLB Offseason Rebuild
From the reloaded Chicago Cubs to the restocked San Francisco Giants, there's no shortage of teams that have gone big during the MLB offseason.
Now that the hype machine is in full swing, it's time to look back at the winter and predict which club's offseason activity will translate to regular-season (and playoff) success.
The first step was to scan the majors to single out the franchises that moved the most aggressively since the close of the 2015 campaign.
The next step was to consider whether these teams successfully addressed their most pressing issues from last year, how fierce the landscape of their respective divisions figures to be and whether they can count on any holdovers turning in bounce-back seasons after lackluster ones in 2015.
All six of the "rebuilt" clubs made important improvements to their rosters, and in the case of the Cubs, that roster was already ridiculously good.
Detroit Tigers
1 of 6
Key Additions: SP Jordan Zimmermann, CL Francisco Rodriguez, RP Mark Lowe, RP Justin Wilson, CF Cameron Maybin, LF Justin Upton and C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The Skinny:
The Detroit Tigers are the first of two American League Central squads to hit this list, and from this early juncture, there's a lot to like about the work of rookie general manager Al Avila in his opening run as the top decision-maker in Motown.
The exec wasted zero time bolstering a bummer of a rotation (last in the American League in ERA in 2015) by signing Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year, $110-million pact on the last day of November.
Avila has worked diligently to also shore up the bullpen, which, like the starting staff, did a spot-on impression of a dumpster fire in 2015. The group lugged around the second-worst ERA in the AL.
Avila acquired veteran closer Francisco Rodriguez (82 saves in the past two seasons) to be the door-slammer and picked up Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson to be K-Rod's top setup guys from the right and left side, respectively.
The outfield will also look significantly different, as $132.75 million left fielder Justin Upton and new leadoff man/center fielder Cameron Maybin will join J.D. Martinez at Comerica Park.
Even with all the new acquisitions, Avila recognizes a clean bill of health is still Detroit's biggest need in 2016: "You can bring in Babe Ruth to this team or any team, and it doesn't matter," Avila said, per Noah Trister of the Associated Press. "What's the key here is that everybody stays healthy and everybody does their part."
That health caveat applies to the likes of Victor Martinez and Justin Verlander and especially Miguel Cabrera, who appeared in just 119 games due to leg injuries in 2015.
But 2016 looks far more promising for the two-time MVP. Per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, Miggy will enter camp "at full health for the first time in two offseasons."
The Verdict: Boom
Chicago White Sox
2 of 6
Key Additions: SP Mat Latos, 3B Todd Frazier, 2B Brett Lawrie, C Alex Avila and C Dioner Navarro
The Skinny:
The Chicago White Sox finished 76-86 in 2015, and their offense was downright disastrous.
The South Siders were at the bottom of the American League leaderboard in an array of categories like homers, runs, slugging percentage and OPS.
After that dismal display at the plate, general manager Rick Hahn worked furiously to overhaul the lineup. As you can see in the list of key additions above, there are going to be a handful of new names at U.S. Cellular Field this summer.
The problem is that of those guys, only Todd Frazier, who clubbed 64 jacks over the past two seasons, is a guaranteed difference-maker. The others—like Brett Lawrie and Dioner Navarro—are role players at best and afterthoughts at worst.
While an inability to put runs on the board was the most glaring weakness for the Sox, the rotation was mediocre during the season that was—ranking seventh in the Junior Circuit in ERA.
The departure of Jeff Samardzija (4.96 ERA) counts as addition by subtraction, but the most prominent new guy is Mat Latos—the same Mat Latos who ran up a 4.95 ERA while bouncing from the Miami Marlins to the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Los Angeles Angels last year.
FanGraphs' 2016 projections don't look kindly on the White Sox's made-over lineup and suspect rotation, pegging the club to finish 81-81. Considering Chicago plays in the savage Central, it's difficult to envision the team will even live up to that projection.
The Verdict: Bust
San Francisco Giants
3 of 6
Key Additions: SP Johnny Cueto, SP Jeff Samardzija and CF Denard Span
The Skinny:
Aside from the inexplicable yet unassailable even-year argument, there are real reasons for optimism when it comes to the San Francisco Giants in 2016.
It starts with Johnny Cueto.
There's no ignoring his bumpy stint with the Kansas City Royals in 2015 (4.76 ERA), but the bigger sample size (3.30 ERA in eight seasons) suggests Cueto will be a premier pitcher for the Giants. A big season by Cueto will be vital for a San Francisco squad whose 2015 rotation was largely a mess aside from staff ace Madison Bumgarner.
Jeff Samardzija, who nearly posted a 5.00 ERA last season, is far less of a sure thing than Cueto. But the good news is that the home run-happy Shark (29 homers in 2015) will be pitching at the cavernous AT&T Park.
As for the new bats, Denard Span has the most upside. After an injury-riddled 2015 with the Washington Nationals, the Giants are hoping the 2014 version of the table-setter shows up at spring training. During that campaign, Span hit .302, scored 94 runs, tied for the National League lead with 184 hits and finished 19th in NL MVP voting.
Another outfielder, whose 2015 was also sabotaged by injuries, will make the biggest difference to this lineup, though. In 2015, Hunter Pence appeared in only 52 games courtesy of wrist and oblique problems.
But thanks to an unorthodox workout program, the right fielder is feeling great about 2016, as he explained to Yahoo Sports' Mike Oz on the StewPod: "I'm really excited that I got my eyes open to pilates. It just has been this amazing thing that I added to my regimen. It definitely was not easy to do on top of all of my training I usually do, but I feel extremely enthusiastic about this season because of what I've been able to accomplish through pilates."
That's just the offseason report the Giants brass wanted to hear, as Pence was one of the stalwarts on both the 2012 and 2014 championship teams.
The Verdict: Boom
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 6
Key Additions: SP David Price, CL Craig Kimbrel, RP Carson Smith and OF Chris Young
The Skinny:
Dave Dombrowski has made his mark in his first winter as the czar of Fenway Park.
From the big-splash signings of David Price and Craig Kimbrel to the low-key-yet-savvy trade for Carson Smith, the Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations has added impressive arms to a team for whom pitching wasn't exactly a strong suit in 2015.
The concern for Dombrowksi and his new club is the landscape of the American League East. Last year, the Red Sox finished in the cellar with a 78-84 record. The defending champs, the Toronto Blue Jays, and the wild-card New York Yankees stand out as the two clubs Boston will have to topple.
The Blue Jays lost Price, whom they had acquired at the trade deadline, to the Red Sox, but the team has rising stars Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez angling to top the 2016 rotation. Then there's the scary good offense (led the majors in runs in 2015), which will have Troy Tulowitzki from the jump.
New York (No. 2 in runs) also has a high-powered attack and an absolutely filthy pen now that Aroldis Chapman has joined Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. The Yankees rotation looms as an issue, but that's also true for Boston.
Price gives the Red Sox a much-needed No. 1 arm, but lots of questions linger.
As Tim Britton of the Providence Journal noted: "Price may settle the issue one day out of five, but Boston still isn't quite sure what to expect the other 80 percent of the time."
Eighty percent of the time? That's a whole lot of uncertainty.
The Verdict: Bust
Arizona Diamondbacks
5 of 6
Key Additions: SP Zack Greinke, SP Shelby Miller, RP Tyler Clippard and SS Jean Segura
The Skinny:
Who knows how the Arizona Diamondbacks' decisions to dish out $206.5 million to Zack Greinke and mortgage the farm for Shelby Miller will look in 2019.
In 2016, they're going to look smart—really smart.
Chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart were able to focus the lion's share of their attention on those arms because Arizona's bats were already robust. Last season, the D-backs scored the second-most runs in the National League.
The stars of the show were NL MVP Award runner-up Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. Goldy and the center fielder weren't just two of the most productive players in the desrt but two of the most productive big leaguers period, ranking fourth and eighth, respectively, in WAR, per FanGraphs.
The lineup is ready to roll, and now Greinke (1.66 ERA) and Miller (3.02 ERA) give Arizona the kind of top of the rotation that matches the talent at AT&T Park and Chavez Ravine.
After a bold offseason, the Diamondbacks have the chance to announce to the rest of baseball that a new force is rising in the West.
The Verdict: Boom
Chicago Cubs
6 of 6
Key Additions: SP John Lackey, CF Jason Heyward and UTL Ben Zobrist
The Skinny:
Mark this down.
This rebuild is going to be a boom. With a capital B. In Sharpie.
Last season, the Chicago Cubs piled up 97 wins, and since the conclusion of the campaign, president of baseball operation Theo Epstein has recruited John Lackey, Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist to the cause.
The defensive genius Heyward will patrol center field, and in the process, he'll provide cover for corner guys Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler, who both have their limitations in the field.
Zobrist should spend the vast majority of his time anchored at second base, but he has the flexibility to shuttle around the diamond, as ever-creative manager Joe Maddon makes his famously creative defensive swaps.
Then there's Lackey, who gives the Cubs a much-needed third top-of-the rotation guy to go with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Last season, Lackey posted a 2.77 ERA, which, for context, was seventh-best in the Senior Circuit—right ahead of Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner.
As the vet told Tony Andracki of CSN Chicago, signing with the National League Central crew was an easy call.
"The chance to win a world championship in this city [was why I chose the Cubs]," Lackey said. "At this point in my career, I'm trying to win. Winning is the biggest thing for me."
Vegas backs Lackey's decision. Per OddsShark.com, Chicago is the favorite to win the 2016 Fall Classic.
The Verdict: Boom
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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