Predicting MLB's 10 Most Exciting Teams to Watch in 2016
Don't tell the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets that baseball is boring.
Thanks to Chicago's absurd collection of bats and New York's contingent of power arms, those two teams are set up to be two of the most exciting MLB squads in 2016.
In the process of drawing up the excitement rankings, we searched for three key attributes:
- High-power offenses
- Elite starting pitching
- Shutdown bullpens
To measure all 30 teams against each other, we looked back at 2015 stats and also factored offseason free-agent and trade additions into the equation.
It's important to remember that just because we predict these 10 teams to be the most exciting, they aren't necessarily going to be the best. At the same time, it just so happens that the two teams at the top of the list were dangerous in 2015 and should be again in the upcoming campaign.
Honorable Mention
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All 30 squads were under consideration for this top 10, but here's the handful of teams that came the closest to cracking a spot on the list.
These five clubs should all be competitive in 2016, but based on the stated criteria—dynamic offense, elite starters and explosive relief—they ended up missing the cut. For the St. Louis Cardinals, it was that lousy offense (No. 24 in runs in 2015) that sank their cause and left them on the outside looking in.
- Detroit Tigers
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Minnesota Twins
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- St. Louis Cardinals
10. Texas Rangers
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It's that bruising offense—No. 3 in the big leagues in runs in 2015—that earned the Texas Rangers a berth on this list.
The American League West defending champions boast a lineup littered with established stars like Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre, but it's one of the youngsters who will cause the most talk in 2016.
Rougned Odor, who only turned 22 at the start of this month, looks like a future game-changer. Following the All-Star break, the Venezuelan second baseman logged 32 extra-base hits in 68 games and posted an .832 OPS.
The success of the pen was also instrumental to the Rangers earning this distinction. Last season, the relief corps included five relievers—Shawn Tolleson, Keone Kela, Sam Dyson, Sam Freeman and Jake Diekman—who posted ERAs of 3.05 or lower in a minimum of 20 appearances.
The only reason the Rangers remain anchored in the No. 10 spot is that Cole Hamels is the lone ace on the roster. But that will change when Yu Darvish returns from Tommy John surgery. According to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, the Japanese righty could be back on the bump as soon as mid-May.
9. San Francisco Giants
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By this point, everyone knows to pay extra-close attention to the San Francisco Giants during even years.
That's especially true after a busy offseason in which the brass brought Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Denard Span to AT&T Park.
Cueto, even with his less-than-stellar run with the Kansas City Royals (4.76 ERA in 13 starts), is the obvious headliner of that group. Dating back to 2011, the righty is second only to Clayton Kershaw in ERA (2.71), as Aaron Gleeman of NBCSports.com noted.
As he explained at his intro press conference, the Dominican picked the NL West club for just one reason.
“It’s a team of champions," Cueto said, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
With one of those champions—Madison Bumgarner—already atop the rotation, the Giants now sport a wicked-nasty and highly entertaining one-two punch.
As for the relief crew, the Giants return a group that recorded the third-lowest ERA in the National League in 2015.
And don't sleep on this offense.
Span has arrived to set the table for an attack that was solid (tied for No. 12 in MLB in runs), if not outstanding. What makes the lineup exciting is the way the Giants go about getting on the board.
This team is clutch. In 2015, San Francisco led baseball in runs with two outs and runners in scoring position and had the second-highest average in those situations.
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8. Arizona Diamondbacks
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There's just no way not to be excited about the Arizona Diamondbacks after the franchise's ambitious offseason.
Just ask new No. 1 Zack Greinke, whose interest in the D-backs was first piqued last summer when he watched them from the opposite dugout while with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
''I was just thinking, like, 'Man, they have something going on there,''' Greinke told the Associated Press (via FoxSports.com). ''Just need a couple things and could be as good as anybody.''
Those things, as Greinke put it, were a couple of front-line arms. The D-backs were able to check those boxes off the winter to-do list by inking Greinke and trading for Shelby Miller.
With National League MVP runner-up Paul Goldschmidt and spark plug A.J. Pollock (.865 OPS) leading the way, the offense was already robust. The team ranked second in the NL in runs in 2015, and it traded for Jean Segura to shore up the middle of the infield where shortstop Nick Ahmed hit .226 last season and second baseman Chris Owings clocked in at .227.
The pen (No. 13 in the bigs in ERA) is the least exciting area of the roster, but it's far from a lost cause. Arizona's relievers produced plenty of whiffs in 2015, as the group checked in with the sixth-most strikeouts in the majors.
7. New York Yankees
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For the New York Yankees, the thrill factor is all about the filthy pen.
Last year, New York's relievers paced baseball with 596 strikeouts.
So, what did the Yankees do for an encore?
They acquired Aroldis Chapman, who Ks opponents at a higher rate (15.7 strikeouts per nine innings) than any pitcher in the game. With the Cuban joining Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances in the bullpen, the Yankees now have the top three pitchers in terms of K/9 ratio.
Admittedly, the early innings won't be nearly as entertaining. Of all those starters who took the hill for the Yankees in 2015, Luis Severino produced the most wows. In 11 starts, the 21-year-old spun a 2.89 ERA for New York.
While the starting staff has its limitations, the offense salvages New York's cause. Last season, the team was second in baseball in runs and fourth in home runs.
Maintaining those places in the rankings will depend on Alex Rodriguez, who slugged 33 dingers in 2015. And that's no sure thing, as A-Rod turns 41 in July.
6. Kansas City Royals
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As the Kansas City Royals made abundantly apparent with the club's run to the World Series title last fall, this is one fun team to watch.
Like the San Francisco Giants, the Royals have an unreal ability for delivering key hits. In 2015, the reigning champs were No. 1 in baseball with a .278 batting average with runners in scoring position and two outs.
Kansas City also has the granddaddy of all bullpens.
The team's relievers reeled off the lowest ERA in the AL and held the opposition to the lowest OPS during the season that was.
But the group has suffered significant defections. Former closer Greg Holland is out of the picture for 2016 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and surprise star Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA) jumped ship to the Oakland Athletics.
The Royals also get a major demerit for their suspect rotation, which logged the fewest innings in the AL last year. The group is also lacking a must-watch ace. Yordano Ventura has the stuff to be that guy—MLB.com clocked his two-seamer at an average speed of 96.8—but not the results (4.08 ERA in 2015).
5. Houston Astros
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With the Houston Astros, the can't-miss show begins with the first pitch.
Last season, leadoff man Jose Altuve hit a staggering .425 on initial offerings, according to Lyle Spencer of MLB.com. The Astros follow that up with a bevy of ascending stars, from Carlos Correa to George Springer. And then there's the always-emotional and always-entertaining vet Carlos Gomez.
Dallas Keuchel—the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner—is the top draw on a starting staff, which recorded the second-lowest ERA in the circuit in 2015.
The bullpen is also pulling its weight. The group was fourth in the AL in ERA last year, and now it adds Ken Giles to the cast. In 2015, Giles was the definition of dominant. The 6'2" closer compiled a 1.80 ERA, an 11.2 K/9 ratio and gassed his four-seamer up to the plate at just a tick under 97 mph, per MLB.com.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
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Make note: 127.
That's how many more runs the Toronto Blue Jays scored than any other team during the 2015 season. The scary-good offense also topped baseball in categories like OPS, home runs, slugging percentage, OBP and doubles.
What's more, the whole gang—with the exception of Ben Revere—will be back at the Rogers Centre. Plus, the Jays will benefit from a full year of Troy Tulowitzki.
The rotation no longer has David Price to be its rock star, but Marcus Stroman has all the tools to thrive as the new front man. The diminutive yet demonstrative right-hander had a 1.67 ERA in four late-season starts following his lightning-quick return from knee surgery.
Aaron Sanchez is yet another talented young pitcher who could generate some big-time interest. After sporting a 2.39 ERA in 30 relief outings, the 23-year-old will be attempting a return to the rotation, where he started last season.
As for the bullpen, Roberto Osuna is the primary source of memorable moments. The Mexican, who just turned 21 on Sunday, had a 2.58 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 ratio courtesy of a four-seamer that averaged better than 96 mph, per MLB.com.
3. Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox's bats are no joke.
Thanks to emerging forces like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts and veteran stalwarts like David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, the AL East heavyweights ranked fourth in the bigs in runs in 2015.
Considering that Betts and Bogaerts are both just 23 and only beginning to enter their primes, there's reason to believe that the offensive attack will be even more ferocious in 2016.
As for the arms, the Red Sox's $217 million payday for David Price means that the club now has a legit No. 1 guy who will demand attention every time he takes the mound. The Red Sox have also significantly bolstered the bullpen.
President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski upgraded the ninth inning by acquiring Craig Kimbrel from the San Diego Padres. With at least 39 saves in each of the past five seasons and a 14.5 K/9 ratio in his career, Kimbrel is the prototypical door-slammer.
But he's not the only power arm Dombrowski added to the late innings. The Red Sox also grabbed Carson Smith, who is a strikeout-throwing machine, in a trade with the Seattle Mariners. In 2015, Smith struck out 92 batters in 70 innings for the M's.
2. Chicago Cubs
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Let's list the reasons why this will be the most intriguing offense to watch in the NL in 2016:
Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell and Javier Baez.
Those are some of the prominent names responsible for the Chicago Cubs scoring the second-most runs in the NL after the Midsummer Classic.
Then there are the new guys: Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward.
But for all the offensive fire power, the pitching staff isn't nearly as loaded, and for that reason, manager Joe Maddon's squad is stuck in second place in these rankings.
With closer Hector Rondon (1.67 ERA) standing out, the pen was good, if not great (No. 8 in ERA) in 2015.
As for the rotation, NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta is the only splashy starter, and even his track record is somewhat limited, as 2015 marked his first full campaign as an elite starting pitcher.
Jon Lester and John Lackey follow Arrieta, but considering both guys average about 92 mph on the radar gun, per MLB.com, they're not exactly dropping jaws.
Ultimately, those three guys simply can't match up with the stable of rising aces who populate the rotation of the No. 1 team in these rankings.
1. New York Mets
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You don't need to dig through all the numbers to know that the New York Mets have the most exhilarating pitching staff in baseball.
But the numbers sure do tell a remarkable story.
According to Andrew Simon of MLB.com, the Mets led baseball with 5,346 pitches of 95 mph or more in 2015. Here's a bit of context to explain just how ridiculous that figure is, per Simon: "That's nearly 1,000 more pitches than the second-place [Cleveland] Indians (4,455) and more than double the totals of 14 teams."
When it comes to the starters, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom deserve much of the credit for that impressive feat.
Meanwhile, from the bullpen, Jeurys Familia is the guy who brings the heat. Per the calculations of MLB.com, Familia's sinker averaged 97.3 mph, which explains how he punched out 86 batters in 78 frames.
But it's not just the pitchers who earned the Mets' top billing on this list.
It's also the sneaky-good offense. Following the arrival of Yoenis Cespedes in Queens last summer, the Mets were first in the NL and third in the bigs in runs. Cespedes is back to highlight the attack in 2016, but watch out for sophomore Michael Conforto, who had an OPS of .841 as a 22-year-old rookie.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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