Fantasy Baseball 2016: 10 MLB Players Most Likely to Regress This Season
Sure, MLB fans are still waiting for pitchers and catchers to report to spring training, but it's never too early to start preparing for the upcoming fantasy baseball season.
Unfortunately, that preparation is not starting on a positive note. We're taking a look at a downside of fantasy baseball—regression—and the players coming off fantastic 2015 campaigns that are most likely to fall short of matching those spectacular numbers.
Fluctuating player performance on a yearly basis is nothing new, and a drop in production can happen for any number of reasons. Age, advanced metrics that raise questions, a new team and/or new teammates can all factor into a player struggling to replicate his previous numbers.
Don't take a player's appearance on this list to mean that they should be avoided at all costs in your fantasy draft. In most cases, that's as far from the truth as you can get. But expectations should be tempered if you're considering one when you're on the clock.
That said, let's take a look at the 10 most likely regression candidates, listed alphabetically, for the 2016 fantasy baseball season.
SP Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
1 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 229 IP, 150 H, 48 BB, 236 K
How can we possibly have the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner on a list of regression candidates in 2016? Because starting pitcher Jake Arrieta had himself a season for the ages in 2015, one that he's unlikely to ever replicate.
To be sure, Arrieta remains a legit fantasy ace and should be one of the first 10 pitchers to come off the board in any draft. And he's a legitimate threat to crack the 20-win plateau once again, not to mention a reliable source of innings and strikeouts for your rotation.
But he also enjoyed his fair share of luck last season, evidenced by a 2.35 fielding independent pitching score (FIP) and a 2.61 expected fielding independent pitching score (xFIP) that were nearly a half-run and full run, respectively, higher than his ERA.
While the Chicago Cubs have upgraded their defense at second base and in center field, there are concerns about the outfield corners. Left fielder/catcher Kyle Schwarber and right fielder Jorge Soler are, shall we say, works in progress when it comes to their glove work. Right fielder Jason Heyward is great, but he can only cover so much ground in center field.
Again, Arrieta is a fine choice to lead any fantasy rotation. But he's more likely to finish the season with an ERA in the 2.70-to-3.00 range than he is to post a sub-2.00 ERA once again.
OF Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays
2 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 65 G, .304/.333/.536, 30 XBH, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 30 R
Shortly after outfielder Corey Dickerson was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Tampa Bay Rays on Jan. 28, ESPN's Eric Karabell penned a lengthy piece on how the deal had ruined the 26-year-old's value in fantasy leagues, going from a top-20 outfielder to outside his top 50.
Even if he were to wind up hitting in the middle of Tampa Bay's lineup—the folks over at Roster Resource peg him as the team's cleanup hitter—the dramatic difference in Dickerson's home/away splits leads us to believe that he'll be one of the more ineffective cleanup hitters around. Warning: These numbers are not pretty.
- Home: 122 G, .355/.410/.675, 68 XBH (24 HR), 78 RBI, 84 R
- Away: 143 G, .249/.286/.410, 42 XBH (15 HR), 46 RBI, 52 R
Those are some ugly away numbers, and that's where he'll be playing now for nearly all of his games—away from Coors Field, save for a three-game series in Colorado shortly after the MLB All-Star Game.
Dickerson is a fine option as a late-round flier, seeing as how he's in the prime of his career and will spend time in hitter's havens like Oriole Park at Camden Yards and Yankee Stadium—but nothing more.
3B Yunel Escobar, Los Angeles Angels
3 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 139 G, .314/.375/.415, 35 XBH (9 HR), 56 RBI, 75 R
After three straight years with a BABIP below .300, during which he hit a combined .256/.318/.350, Yunel Escobar put up a .347 mark in 2015, one of the 20 highest among qualified position players. Without significant power or speed (two stolen bases last season), his value is tied to his batting average.
A career .276 hitter heading into 2015, there's no reason to believe that he'll once again crack the .300 plateau, especially now that he's moved from a hitter-friendly park in Washington, D.C., to the pitcher-friendly confines of Angel Stadium of Anaheim.
Escobar should remain a decent source of runs, as he does know how to get on base fairly consistently, evidenced by a career .350 on-base percentage, and will be hitting ahead of Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout in the Los Angeles Angels lineup.
A .260 batting average and little power makes Escobar nothing more than a late-round selection as a backup third baseman—if not waiver-wire fodder.
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SP Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays
4 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 13-8, 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 181 IP, 134 H, 55 BB, 131 K
I stand by my assertion that the two-year, $26 million contract Marco Estrada signed with Toronto will stand as one of the biggest steals of the offseason, but that doesn't mean you should run out and target the 32-year-old to anchor your fantasy rotation.
His rate of 6.34 strikeouts per nine innings puts him in a tie with recently retired pitcher Dan Haren for the 14th-lowest strikeout rate among 77 qualified starters. However, Estrada's 4.40 FIP and 4.93 xFIP indicate that he was more lucky than he was dominant last season.
Pitchers who don't strike out a ton of batters and sit with an ERA around 4.00, which is a fair estimate of where he'll sit in 2016, simply aren't worth much in fantasy baseball. Estrada shouldn't be considered anything more than a back-of-the-rotation arm—or depth on the bench—for your fantasy squad.
SP Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
5 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 222.2 IP, 148 H, 40 BB, 200 K
The odds were going to be stacked against Zack Greinke replicating his otherworldly numbers from last season no matter what team he signed with as a free agent. But in deciding to join Arizona, the 32-year-old hurler is guaranteed to take a significant step backward in 2016.
Not only is his new home Chase Field, one of the game's most hitter-friendly venues, but the Arizona Diamondbacks have taken a hit defensively, trading away outfielder Ender Inciarte and trading for middle infielder Jean Segura.
Greinke remains a solid addition to any fantasy rotation, as he's going to rack up innings and strikeouts. But his ERA and WHIP are heading in the wrong direction—and it's debatable as to whether he remains one of the 10 best starters in fantasy.
OF Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies
6 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 147 G, .297/.344/.418, 41 XBH (8 HR), 41 RBI, 64 R, 16-for-24 SB
Rule 5 draft picks don't tend to stick on major league rosters for an entire season, much less become fantasy relevant, but that's exactly what Odubel Herrera did in 2015, bursting onto the scene as a solid, albeit unspectacular, third outfielder and/or utility player on multiple fantasy squads.
But his numbers in 2015 were a bit of an illusion, powered by an unsustainable .387 BABIP, the highest among qualified position players.
In fact, we need only look at his splits from last season to get a better idea of what kind of production Herrera will deliver in 2016:
- First Half: .268/.297/.398, 24 XBH (4 HR), .347 BABIP
- Second Half: .329/.394/.440, 17 XBH (4 HR), .432 BABIP
Herrera's inability to draw a walk (a 5.2 percent walk rate coupled with a 24 percent strikeout rate) also plays into the regression he's going to deal with in 2015. Specifically, Herrera struggles mightily with breaking balls, fanning at a 36 percent rate, per Brooks Baseball.
You can bet the opposition has taken note of that, and a hefty serving of breaking pitches will be heading his way in 2016—limiting his ability to spray line drives around the field.
Herrera is worth a flier as a late-round reserve outfielder but little else.
2B Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers
7 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 154 G, .296/.342/.428, 53 XBH (11 HR), 73 RBI, 94 R, 10-of-16 SB
Similar to Yunel Escobar, Ian Kinsler posted a BABIP below .300 for multiple consecutive seasons—four in this case—before delivering a .323 BABIP in 2015, resulting in his highest regular-season batting average since 2008, when he hit .319 for the Texas Rangers.
While Kinsler didn't change teams this winter like Escobar did, regression to the veteran second baseman's career BABIP (.287) will find his batting average tumbling back into the .260-to-.270 range.
Kinsler is a player whose speed and power are declining. His 2015 total of 11 home runs was his lowest since 2010, when he hit only nine. Regardless, Kinsler is going to be selected far higher in drafts than he should be, based on last year's unsustainable production and name recognition.
Players like Rougned Odor, Anthony Rendon and Ben Zobrist all figure to be selected well after Kinsler—and will provide equal, if not better, production from the keystone for your fantasy squad.
2B Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians
8 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 141 G, .303/.372/.451, 59 XBH (9 HR), 52 RBI, 86 R, 12-for-20 SB
Nobody disputes that Jason Kipnis is going to be viewed as a top-10 second baseman in fantasy, but those expecting the 28-year-old to replicate his 2015 numbers are setting themselves up for disappointment.
Two things fueled that production: a .356 BABIP, nearly 40 points above his career average, and a scorching May and June that saw him hit a combined .397 with 32 extra-base hits (five home runs), 25 RBI and eight stolen bases.
Once the calendar hit July, his bat cooled, as he'd hit .254 with 24 extra-base hits (three home runs), 19 RBI and four steals the rest of the way.
With middling power (he's failed to crack double-digit home runs for two years) and not enough speed to be counted on as a base-stealing threat, Kipnis' value is tied to his ability to hit for average. A .270 hitter that might crack double digits in home runs and steals isn't worthy of a high selection in any draft.
RP Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
9 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 3-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 61.2 IP, 33 H, 20 BB, 100 K, 36-of-38 SV
Andrew Miller's value takes a significant hit now that he's no longer the New York Yankees closer, replaced in the ninth inning by Aroldis Chapman. And it's worth noting that Miller faded a bit down the stretch in the Bronx when compared to his stellar start to the regular season.
- First Half: 29 G, 1.53 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 29.1 IP, 10 H, 11 BB, 47 K
- Second Half: 31 G, 2.51 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 32.1 IP, 23 H, 9 BB, 53 K
He'll remain a solid source of strikeouts and help keep your team's ERA and WHIP down—as much as a reliever can—but without those saves, and unless your league counts holds as a category, Miller simply isn't going to provide the same kind of value that he did a season ago.
SP Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
10 of 10
2015 Fantasy Stats: 9-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 180.2 IP, 156 H, 71 BB, 162 K
Hector Santiago figures to find himself in a battle with Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs and Nick Tropeano for the final spot in Los Angeles' starting rotation this spring, and that uncertainty makes the 28-year-old a risky selection in any fantasy draft.
Even if he does crack the rotation, Santiago will be hard-pressed to deliver similar results as he did a year ago, when he was the beneficiary of a nearly 80 percent strand rate and .252 BABIP, the latter nearly 30 points below his career BABIP, heading into the 2015 season.
Prone to the long ball—his 29 home runs allowed tied Jeff Samardzija for the most in the American League—and with an ugly FIP (4.77) and xFIP (5.00), Santiago is, at best, a shaky candidate for a late-round selection in fantasy drafts.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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