
NFL Free Agents Whose Decisions Will Impact Draft Plans
We're still a few weeks away from the start of the NFL's free-agency period, but teams are already meeting behind closed doors to plot out their offseason plans.
Inevitably, decisions made in March in regard to free agents will end up shaping the draft strategies for teams in April.
Before free agency arrives, let's take a look at some significant free agents whose decisions could have a major impact on the first round of April's draft.
For the purposes of this slideshow, we won't necessarily focus on the best free agents—primarily because the franchise tag often removes most of them the market. Instead, we'll focus on players who are likely to hit the open market, and whose departures could leave their teams scrambling for help in the draft.
Olivier Vernon, Miami Dolphins
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One of the few strengths of the Miami Dolphins defense this year was its pass rush, and 25-year-old Olivier Vernon anchored the attack.
Obviously, the Dolphins would love to retain Vernon, who still has multiple years remaining in the prime of his career. Unfortunately, the team's decision to throw money at Ndamukong Suh last offseason may prevent Miami from bringing Vernon back.
A player of Vernon's caliber is usually a candidate to receive the franchise tag, but the Dolphins' financial situation may not allow for that option.
According to Spotrac, the Dolphins are already over the salary cap for 2016, partially due to Suh's enormous $28.6 million cap figure—more than double anyone else on the roster.
According to Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post, Dolphins head of football operations Mike Tannenbaum has stated the team is undecided about the use of the franchise tag on Vernon, which would cost over $15 million.
Losing Vernon would open up a gaping hole in Miami's front seven, which a first-round pick could potentially fill.
With the eighth overall selection, the Dolphins may have an interest in Clemson pass-rusher Shaq Lawson as a replacement for Vernon.
Chris Ivory, New York Jets
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Chris Ivory was a critical piece of the New York Jets offense for much of the 2015 season, but how much are the Jets willing to invest in a running back who turns 28 years old in March?
Ivory was a workhorse for the Jets early in the season, carrying the ball over 20 times in three of his first four games of the year. As the season wore on, however, his workload diminished.
In the season finale, with the playoffs on the line, the Jets used Ivory as a backup behind Stevan Ridley—despite telling the New York Post he was healthy—and he carried the ball six times while mostly entering the game on passing downs.
It was an odd end to the year for Ivory, and it could push him to pursue opportunities elsewhere.
Without Ivory, the Jets would need to find a feature back and could be in position to add one with the 20th pick.
Ezekiel Elliott is the premier running back in this class and could be on the board for New York.
Elliott is a true three-down back who excels as a receiver and in pass protection—rare qualities in college running backs these days.
The Jets could comfortably insert Elliott in the starting lineup and expect him to match, if not exceed, Ivory's production.
Donald Penn, Oakland Raiders
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The 32-year-old Donald Penn certainly isn't one of the stars of this free-agent class, but his role as Derek Carr's protector at left tackle makes him extremely valuable to the Oakland Raiders.
Retaining Penn should be a priority for the Raiders, but the veteran may have other plans.
Penn hasn't appeared in a playoff game since 2007 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and it would be tough to fault him for wanting to get out of Oakland and join an immediate contender.
The good news for Raiders fans is no team has more available cap space than Oakland, according to Spotrac. So the team could throw money at him if it's desperate.
Should Penn leave, the Raiders will have options in the draft with the 14th overall selection.
Ohio State's Taylor Decker, Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley and Michigan State's Jack Conklin are all potential mid-first-round selections who could interest the Raiders.
Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals
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It would seem logical for the Cincinnati Bengals to bring back either Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu, but re-signing both players may not be feasible.
A.J. Green already accounts for $13 million against the Bengals' cap space next season, and it would be tough to justify committing too much money to the wide receiver position in Cincinnati.
While the Bengals receiving corps excelled this year and made significant strides with quarterback Andy Dalton, the depth is lacking. Brandon Tate, the Bengals' fourth option, is also a free agent and isn't a viable candidate to take on a larger role even if he returns.
With the 24th selection in the first round, the Bengals should have plenty of options to choose from at receiver.
Ole Miss' Laquon Treadwell may be off the board already, but it's possible the Bengals would have their pick from the rest of the class.
A deep threat, such as Baylor's Corey Coleman, could be an attractive addition for Cincinnati.
Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks
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The Seattle Seahawks secondary receives more national attention, but their linebackers have been arguably just as dominant during their recent run of success.
Bruce Irvin, Seattle's starter at strong-side linebacker, is an unrestricted free agent due to the Seahawks' decision to decline his option for 2016, which would have paid him $7.8 million, according to Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
Condotta also noted the Falcons, coached by former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, as a likely destination for Irvin in free agency.
With Irvin seemingly already out the door, the Seahawks may be forced to find a replacement through the draft.
The most obvious replacement from this year's class would be Eastern Kentucky's Noah Spence, a dangerous pass-rusher with a remarkably similar skill set to Irvin when he was coming out of West Virginia.
Seattle may also consider Ohio State's Joshua Perry and Utah State's Kyler Fackrell as options.
Derrick Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs
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Given the age of the Kansas City Chiefs linebackers, the position should be among the team's priorities in this draft regardless of how free agency plays out. However, as one of the teams in win-now mode, it could become the Chiefs' No. 1 priority if veteran Derrick Johnson does not return.
Even at 33 years of age, Johnson remains one of the Chiefs' most valuable assets on defense, finishing the season as Pro Football Focus' ninth-ranked linebacker.
There's no question the Chiefs want Johnson back, but can they afford him?
With Eric Berry, Sean Smith and Tamba Hali also on the free-agent market, the Chiefs will have to make some tough decisions. Re-signing all their big-name free agents probably isn't financially possible with $31 million of cap space.
If Johnson is the odd man out, the Chiefs could turn to an athletic and versatile linebacker in the draft, such as Ohio State's Darron Lee, who has the well-balanced skill set to grow into Johnson's shoes at inside linebacker.
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