Splash Deals Desperate MLB Teams Should Consider Before Opening Day
Few agents know how to make a splash like Scott Boras, so we really shouldn't be surprised that before much of the baseball universe awoke Saturday morning, Boras had found new homes for his two biggest remaining free-agent clients.
First baseman Chris Davis returned to the Baltimore Orioles on a seven-year, $161 million deal, while pitcher Ian Kennedy joined the Kansas City Royals rotation on a five-year, $70 million pact. Now, teams that are in need of another impact bat or a reliable starter are facing a more desperate situation than they were 24 hours ago.
Their options are disappearing—and the time for indecisiveness is over. Those teams need to make a big splash before they're left scrounging through the bargain bin at the onset of spring training, trying to decide whether outfielders Domonic Brown or Jeff Francoeur should be their starting right fielder.
Luckily, there are still some impact players available via free agency—outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton and pitcher Yovani Gallardo—and a few more who could be obtained by trade.
What follows are sensible-yet-splashy moves desperate teams should make—no matter how painful they may be.
Cardinals: Trade for Carlos Gonzalez
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While full seasons from Matt Adams, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty should help to improve a St. Louis Cardinals offense that has delivered baseball's 24th-lowest slugging percentage (.382) over the past two seasons, it wouldn't hurt the Cardinals to add another big bat to the mix.
Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez, whom St. Louis has already inquired about, per MLB Network's Jon Heyman, should be that big bat. Sure, there are legitimate concerns about his durability and numbers away from Coors Field, but he's a risk worth taking and one that provides quality defense at all three outfield positions.
Due $37 million through 2017, CarGo would be a perfect short-term addition with his salary coming off the books just in time for the free-agent class of 2017-18, which is shaping up to make this winter's class look, well, mediocre.
With Heyman reporting that left fielder Matt Holliday—after refusing to consider a position change during the regular season—has been working out at first base this winter, the door to adding a bat like CarGo's is open.
A move to the infield would, in theory, reduce the wear and tear on the 36-year-old Holliday's body, helping to keep him fresh and, perhaps, rediscover his power stroke—which disappeared in 2015, when he hit only four home runs.
As for Adams, he'd be part of the package the Cardinals send to the Rockies for CarGo. A few weeks ago, I proposed a package of Adams, along with pitching prospects Tim Cooney and Jack Flaherty, for Gonzalez.
While Colorado general manager Jeff Bridich told Gonzalez to ignore the trade talk, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, this is the same general manager who promised to keep Troy Tulowitzki "in the loop" last season—but didn't, leaving Tulo "blindsided" by his trade to Toronto.
Angels: Sign Justin Upton
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The Los Angeles Angels desperately need an everyday left fielder, and owner Arte Moreno desperately wants to avoid exceeding the $189 million luxury tax threshold.
Something's got to give—and it should be Moreno opening his wallet a bit wider to add a player, Justin Upton, who could put his team over the top in an improving American League West.
Upton, who has averaged 24 home runs, 80 RBI and a .275/.354/.478 triple-slash line every season since 2009, would not only give the Angels another big bat, but he could help to replace the production the team will be missing from Albert Pujols, whose availability for the start of the regular season is in doubt after he underwent foot surgery in November.
Though he is widely viewed as a defensive liability, FanGraphs' advanced metrics graded Upton as a slightly above-average defender in left field last season, with a 2.8 UZR/150 and eight defensive runs saved. With Mike Trout able to cover a massive swath of ground in center field, Upton's defense would be less of an issue.
Upton's agent, Larry Reynolds, let it be known that his client would prefer a long-term deal. "We are not considering shorter-term deals at this time," Reynolds said in a statement, according to ESPN.com. "The goal has been and will continue to be a long-term contract for Justin Upton."
But a one-year deal is what Upton should be looking for. He's still young, and he'd be the biggest bat available in a weak free-agent market next winter, when he will be entering his age-29 season.
Signing a one-year, $18 million deal with Los Angeles is the kind of daring, splashy move both sides need to consider.
Rangers: Trade for Jonathan Lucroy
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The Milwaukee Brewers have continued to discuss trade scenarios with different teams, including the Texas Rangers, about catcher Jonathan Lucroy, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal. With no quality backstops available via free agency and a glaring need behind the plate, the Rangers must make a deal work.
It's not often that a team can land an experienced, All-Star-caliber backstop still in the prime of his career, much less one who's signed for two years at less than $10 million combined.
An outstanding defender, the 29-year-old got off to a slow start in 2015, missing more than a month with a broken toe and two weeks due to a concussion. But he had started to show signs of life before then, hitting .282 with 29 extra-base hits and a .762 OPS from the time he returned to action from his toe injury June 1 through the end of the regular season.
It's going to take a significant package of young, controllable talent to pry him loose—any package would likely have to start with one of the team's top outfield prospects, either Lewis Brinson or Nomar Mazara—and would probably include some young pitchers and additional pieces.
Something like the four-player package I proposed earlier this week—Brinson, IF/OF Ryan Cordell, RHP Luis Ortiz and RHP Dillon Tate—will at the very least intrigue the Brewers, and it could be enough of a return for Milwaukee to sign off on it.
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Mets: Re-Sign Yoenis Cespedes
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With Chris Davis heading back to Baltimore, Yoenis Cespedes has two choices: continue to hold out hope that some team will suddenly agree to give him the six-year, $132 million contract that ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported he was seeking or take a lesser deal to return to the New York Mets.
The Mets, per MLB Network's Jon Heyman, are interested in a reunion with the slugger on a one- to three-year pact. Like Justin Upton, Cespedes should bet on himself this winter and return to New York on a one-year, $18 million deal, though this agreement would come with a player option for 2017.
Cespedes played the best baseball of his career after his midseason trade to the Mets last season, hitting .287/.337/.604 with 35 extra-base hits (17 home runs) and 44 RBI over 57 games and showing the versatility to bounce around the outfield as needed.
If he's able to come close to replicating that kind of production in 2016, Cespedes would be in far better shape to command the kind of multiyear deal he seeks next winter. If not, he's got the option of sticking around New York for another season in an effort to rebuild his value.
While full campaigns from Michael Conforto, Travis d'Arnaud and David Wright should help the Mets offense in 2016, it certainly wouldn't hurt to have an impact bat like Cespedes' in the middle of the lineup once again.
Blue Jays: Sign Yovani Gallardo
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Toronto's interest in free-agent starter Yovani Gallardo hasn't waned since the offseason began, and the two sides have spoken as recently as this week, according to Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith.
In fact, Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro, while a guest on Prime Time Sports with Bob McCown and Arash Madani, essentially said Gallardo was a perfect fit for what the team is looking for:
"He's the kind of guy who would make us better. He's the kind of guy you'd like to have. Whether or not, from a resource perspective, we still have enough to make a move like that, I think that's still a variable that exists. But we do have some flexibility still. Thinking about how we use those resources is still a question.
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Adding Gallardo, who has averaged nearly 32 starts and 191 innings per season since 2009, would give Toronto another reliable innings-eater, one who would replace R.A. Dickey as the rotation's workhorse after the knuckleball specialist departs as a free agent following the 2016 season.
Additionally, his arrival would allow the Jays to either keep both Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez in the bullpen or send one—or both—back to the minors to get stretched out and back into the groove as starting pitchers.
With Wei-Yin Chen signing a five-year, $80 million deal with the Miami Marlins and Ian Kennedy getting a five-year, $70 million pact from the Kansas City Royals, it'd be easy to say Gallardo fits in between the two with a five-year, $75 million deal.
But neither the 29-year-old Gallardo nor Toronto figure to be interested in such a lengthy agreement.
A three-year, $52 million deal would give Gallardo a higher average annual value than Chen or Kennedy while allowing him to hit free agency at 32, putting him in line for another lucrative multiyear deal.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
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