Breaking Down the 2016 NFL Draft's Top Quarterback Prospects

It's hard to get away from quarterback talk, even during draft season. Every year, the teams at the top of the draft tend to be looking for a savior, and the conversation turns from NFL quarterback wins in December to which prospect's knees are too thin in January.

In the top 10, only the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers seem to be in dire need of a passer, which throws a monkey wrench into this quarterback class. Usually, multiple teams are looking for a passer early on. Just using last year as an example, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were back-to-back quarterback selections to start the draft. In 2012, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin were the top two picks, with Ryan Tannehill not falling too far behind them as the eighth overall pick.

What may end up being the story of Day 1 is how teams with veteran passers were finally able to snag up some falling stars at the draft and develop prospects. The Dallas Cowboys are sitting there with the fourth overall pick, and Jerry Jones always has bad intentions. Could he replace Tony Romo with the team's first pick in 2016? The same question arises with the New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals. The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams just need a quarterback, but they are picking in the middle of the day.

There are more teams trying to get their hand in the cookie jar this year than normal, but the distance those franchises are from the jar makes this class appealing. At this point, four quarterback prospects—Jared Goff, Connor Cook, Paxton Lynch and Carson Wentz—have been discussed as potential first-round picks. We will break down their positives, negatives and comparisons as we try to project the unprojectable three-and-a-half months out.

Jared Goff, California

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Positives

If there is one word to explain Jared Goff, it's "efficiency." If you're thinking about the stereotypical "do the right thing" passer who will find the open man, rather than force a throw, this is your quarterback. At California, a lot of what he's been asked to do revolves around being a quick-strike passer.

His arm is above-average, and his accuracy is solid. He has decent mobility and works his way through the pocket. Overall, he doesn't have one glaring flaw in his game for you to pick apart. In many ways, he's like Nick Foles under Chip Kelly with some added mobility. If you're asking for a baseline quarterback to play under a great system, Goff is going to be at the top of your list in the 2016 draft class.

Negatives

In a lot of ways, he's like Teddy Bridgewater. While some didn't believe that Bridgewater's thin frame and lack of elite tools were much of an issue coming out of Louisville, it can't be ignored that the passer went from being a first overall candidate to being drafted with the last pick of the first round in 2014.

Like Bridgewater, Goff may have an issue with his hands. The former Cardinal didn't have a sub-9" hand length, which is viewed like a death sentence in the draft community, but he did only measure in at the 21st percentile for quarterbacks.

The biggest game in which Goff's hand size came to play was his 2013 matchup in Autzen Stadium against the Oregon Ducks in pouring rain. The ball just wasn't coming out right, often slipping during his release, and the then-true freshman was benched. He hasn't had a disaster game like that since, but at moments, the flaw does flash. 

Finally, the system he played in under Tony Franklin is suspect. His "Bear Raid" version of the Air Raid involves offensive linemen bailing from the line of scrimmage like cornerbacks in a backpedal more so than NFL kick slides. It will be interesting to see if someone can play him under center and how he'll adjust to NFL dropbacks.

Comparable peak: Chad Pennington

Recent comparable prospect: Teddy Bridgewater

Overall: Depending on his hand size, Jared Goff may be a player who is limited to a warm-weather team. He also is very much a system quarterback who will take what the defense gives him but doesn't appear to have much more in the tank than that. If a team like San Francisco could pull in an offensive guru like Chip Kelly or Hue Jackson, Goff's best fit could be playing just south of Berkley's campus, in Santa Clara.

Paxton Lynch, Memphis

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Positives

If your life depended on choosing one prospect in this class who could go 80 yards for a touchdown in a minute with two timeouts, you're taking Paxton Lynch. A lot of quarterbacks get the "can do it all label", but when you watch Lynch play, you actually see it consistently.

He's making 25-yard sideline-breaking passes to the far side of the field from a wide hash. He's threading the needle between a Cover 2 zone defense with the velocity of an All-Pro. He's extending plays with his great mobility to buy time for an H-back to get a sliver of an advantage on a linebacker, enough space for him to riffle in a throw.

Put in the game he had against Ole Miss, who featured potentially a top-five pick on the defensive line in Robert Nkemdiche, and you'll be surprised that he isn't the consensus leader to be the first quarterback off the board.

Negatives

At Memphis, Lynch threw plenty of passes behind the line of scrimmage. It wouldn't surprise me if one-third of his throws with the Tigers were designed screens. He played in a shotgun system that featured plenty of empty concepts, something he won't do much of at the NFL level, unless he's in third-down situations.

The lack of reps against quality competition are a concern. He was great against Ole Miss, which vaulted him into the first-overall-pick conversation, but he only played one other major team in 2015. He completed over 60 percent of his passes against every team he had previously faced heading into the bowl game, but against Auburn, he was 16-of-37 for 103 yards and an interception in Birmingham, Alabama.

Was his load-up, slow-trigger style of play finally exposed? Could American Athletic Conference programs just not test his raw skill in ways that SEC schools can? No one had a rougher bowl week than Lynch.

Comparable peak: Cam Newton

Recent comparable prospect: Marcus Mariota

Overall: You don't truly understand what you're getting out of Paxton Lynch, which is a bit worrisome. Is he a player who slipped through the cracks because he was hurt during his senior year of high school, becoming a perfect product to fall into Memphis' lap, or is he just a product of their system and a raw talent? The lines are blurred because of the opponents he faced on a week-to-week basis.

With that being said, he made some plays against an SEC defense, Ole Miss, which only about half of the professionals in the league could make. What you can ask of him from a level-of-difficulty standpoint is high. There aren't many players like him in the league, either, and his dual-threat potential, especially at 6'7" with an arm like his, will give any defensive coordinator nightmares.

Connor Cook, Michigan State

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Positives

The biggest plus that Connor Cook has going for him is that he looks like a quarterback. While that statement alone seems like an idiotic reason to draft a passer high, NFL coaches have large enough egos that we've seen franchises confidently draft quarterbacks with less talent than Cook early on. Generally, they think they are better developers of talent than they actually are.

He's 6'4" and 220 pounds, a redshirt senior and led his team to a 36-5 record in three years. He has an arm, mobility that will remind you he can play out of structure a few times a game, and he has shown that he can go through multiple progressions and full-field reads in a fairly short amount of time.

The best part of his highlight throws? He's confident and fearless when making them. If you took his top 10 plays and strung them together, there's maybe one quarterback, Paxton Lynch, who looks better than him.

Negatives

Things are a little slow with Cook. Not mentally, but physically. It takes time for him to get to the back of his drop and climb back up in the pocket. He's going to be better suited for a vertical throwing system than a West Coast system, which asks him to get the ball out of his hand quickly. He's also a clunky mover.

At times, his aggressiveness turns into overconfidence, as he hopelessly throws the ball down the sideline in attempt of a big play. More often than not, he just raises the number on the down box. He also doesn't help his receivers much, either. His mentality seems to be that if the ball is in his target's area, he's done his job. Not many yards after the catch or ball-placement points are being added onto Cook's tape.

From a technical standpoint, there are things he can fix, too. At times, he throws with his feet and shoulders parallel to the line of scrimmage like Jay Cutler, just "arming" a dart instead of getting his core and lower body into the pass. He also has a shocking amount of tipped and batted balls for someone who is 6'4" because he doesn't quite understand how important throwing between passing lanes in between offensive linemen is.

Comparable peak: Carson Palmer

Recent comparable prospect: Blake Bortles

Overall: If you can fix Connor Cook, you might have a great one on your hands. If you can't, though, you're going to be fielding a below-average quarterback who will hurt your franchise. He reminds me of Blake Bortles coming out of Central Florida. In 2014, he was a liability. In 2015, Bortles improved his peaks, but as long as he's throwing pick-sixes and brutal interceptions at the rate Bortles currently is, it's going to be hard to consider the passer among the best in the NFL.

There was a two-play stretch against Alabama that explained Cook pretty well as an overall prospect. First, he throws a gem to his receiver to get into the red zone. It was a pass that many wouldn't make because of the level of difficulty it takes to get the ball into such a small, high window, and because of the level of difficulty it takes for his receiver to make the catch. He followed that immediately with an interception, which looked like he was trying to throw a Crimson Tide defensive back on purpose, costing his team three to seven points at the end of the half in a 10-0 game.

Cook can be the Arizona Cardinals version of Carson Palmer, but right now he plays like Oakland Raiders Carson Palmer. The difference there is one Bruce Arians, but without the ability to choose where he's going to land, Cook's fate may be decided from the jump on draft day. A vertical scheme is needed for him to thrive.

Carson Wentz, North Dakota State

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Positives

Carson Wentz is another "tools" guy. He has an arm that can cover a lot of air and feet that can cover a lot of ground. He's a legitimate running threat, and he also has great body control to pick up a couple of extra yards when you think you have him pinned. The previous generation of dual-threat quarterbacks are now opening the door for these college prospects to be considered first-round picks.

He also has shown the zip and accuracy at times to make NFL quarterbacks jealous. It's not often that you see an FCS quarterback just hum a ball on a deep-breaking out pattern. In my opinion, because of the arm strength and timing demanded of that particular throw, that's the toughest pass in the sport.

Negatives

The first thing that's going to be talked about in war rooms regarding Wentz is an easy-to-grasp topic: He didn't play in the FBS. He played on a run-first team that is loaded for FCS standards. Remember, the 2012 Kansas State Wildcats were one game away from going to the national title game. And in 2013, for the Wildcats season opener, the North Dakota State Bison won in Manhattan, Kansas, in a 24-21 effort. They are the Alabama Crimson Tide of the division formerly known as 1-AA.

On the field, what is going to worry scouts is his speed. We're not talking about foot speed here, but how he seems to lack either urgency or quick mental gears. A lot of times, you can see him pause while he's going through progressions on the same side of the field. He looks like his feet are stuck in mud and makes some Matthew Stafford-like attempts, which is fine if you're Stafford and have generational arm talent, but Wentz isn't quite there.

That type of slow, load-up play also leads to unnecessary hits coming in and altered balls due to those hits. You never want to bring up potential injury, but in the NFL, where bullets fly faster than in the FCS, I wonder how well he holds up with his style of play.

Comparable peak: Joe Flacco

Recent comparable prospect: Jake Locker

Overall: Of all of the high-end projects in this class, I think Carson Wentz is the one who is the furthest away. He not only has to adjust to the speed of the NFL from college football, but he's not doing it from a baseline speed of Power Five schools, like Jared Goff and Connor Cook are, or even a mid-major, like Paxton Lynch is, but instead from the FCS level.

Wentz is a pretty big boom-bust prospect at this point. Even then, his peak is to be a quality NFL starter, not a "franchise quarterback." If he doesn't land with the right mentor, his career will not turn out the way anyone has it planned. You don't draft him and hope to figure out a path to success later. You need a map of how you're getting him on the field in two years in your hand when you turn in his card in Chicago. He already broke his wrist and missed two-and-a-half months this season. His timing needs a boost, and sooner rather than later.