MLB Stars Whose Teams Should Give Big-Money Extensions ASAP
Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson isn't just the reigning American League MVP—he's also a man who deserves to get paid.
Looking around the league, there are plenty of MLB stars like Donaldson whose current employers should be racing to lock them up.
The 10 big leaguers who make this list are all arbitration eligible, which means they are one to three seasons away from hitting the free-agent front.
What follows are breakdowns for how each of those contract extensions should be structured. Due to a variety of factors—from the age of the given player to his current contract situation to which agent is representing him—some of these proposed extensions are far more realistic than others.
We'll use MLBTradeRumors.com's salary arbitration projections for 2016 as a jumping-off point for determining how much each player is worth. The proposed salaries are also based on the deals that free agents have signed this offseason and how the respective players compare to other similar guys on this list.
From David Price to Zack Greinke to Johnny Cueto, this has been the offseason of the opt-out. With that trend in mind, many of these proposed extensions give the players the opportunity to bolt town long before the full deal is up.
SP Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
1 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 28
Contract Status: First-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $6.4 million
When it comes to a potential multiyear pact for the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, both the Houston Astros and pitcher Dallas Keuchel's camp have plenty of work to do. His agent Darek Braunecker admitted as much in a recent interview on MLB Network Radio:
"At this point, we have not engaged the club in any sort of long-term discussions. It’s common knowledge that we had some discussion during the season last year and it was just preliminary seeing where one another stood. They approached us, kicked the tires and got a sense where both parties were at that time.
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Since Keuchel, 28, is relatively old to be entering his first season of arbitration eligibility, the Astros should focus on buying out his arb years. Here's an outline of a deal that would cover Keuchel's arbitration seasons but also give him the chance to stick around at the "Juice Box" beyond that:
- 2016: $8 million
- 2017: $12 million
- 2018: $16 million (Keuchel can opt out after this season.)
- 2019: $25 million
- 2020: $25 million
Such a deal would provide Keuchel, who has made slightly more than $1 million in his first two seasons, with some serious financial security. But it would also offer him the chance to cash in after the 2018 season when he'll be 30 years old.
Potential Deal: Five years, $86 million
3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
2 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Contract Status: Second-Year Arbitration Eligible (He has four years of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player.)
Projected Salary: $12 million
$4.3 million.
That's how much money the Toronto Blue Jays paid Josh Donaldson, the MVP of the AL, in 2015. In the crazy world of baseball economics, that is tremendous value.
With Donaldson projected to rake in $12 million in arbitration this year, it's time for the Blue Jays to pay up. The third baseman is in his second of four seasons of arbitration eligibility, and the price tag is only rising.
Here's how Ross Atkins, the GM of the Jays, can go about keeping JD north of the border for the long haul:
- 2016: $16 million
- 2017: $20 million
- 2018: $28 million (Donaldson can opt out after this season.)
- 2019: $28 million
- 2020: $28 million
- 2021: $28 million team option (with a $6 million buyout)
Such a contract would offer Donaldson generous raises in his final three seasons of arbitration eligibility. He would also have the chance to earn a $28 million check in each of his first two free-agent campaigns. Or he could bet on himself and try to earn even more on the open market.
Potential Deal: Five years, $120 million (with a $28 million team option for 2021 with a $6 million buyout)
SP Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
3 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Contract Status: Second-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $10.4 million
Jake Arrieta is the first client of super agent Scott Boras to crack this list.
Back in November, Boras compared Arrieta to Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer.
“Most pitchers are free agents when they are 30,” Boras said, per Bruce Levine of 670 the Score, via CBS Chicago. “He will be 32, so that is not that big of a difference. Jake has had a track like Scherzer. He had a Cy Young kind of year in his fourth season."
Arrieta, who sported a 1.77 ERA in 2015, is one nasty pitcher. But he's not going to get anything close to the seven-year, $210 million payout that Scherzer snagged.
Arrieta remains under club control for the next two seasons, and his projected $10.4 million salary in 2016 serves as a starting point for laying out an extension:
- 2016: $14 million
- 2017: $18 million (Arrieta can opt out after this season.)
- 2018: $28 million
- 2019: $28 million
- 2020: $28 million
- 2021: $28 million
As Levine noted, Arrieta is one smart guy: "He has too much common sense to let an opportunity like this go by the boards without obtaining generational wealth for himself and his family when the opportunity presents itself."
You hear that Cubs, Arrieta? That's opportunity. And it's knocking.
Potential Deal: Six years, $144 million
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SP Matt Harvey, New York Mets
4 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 27
Contract Status: First-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $4.7 million
At first, $39 million for three years of Matt Harvey doesn't sound like anywhere close to enough money.
But in the current situation, the New York Mets have all the leverage, as Harvey remains under club control for the next three seasons. In 2016, the righty is slated to earn $4.7 million. Here's the contract-extension breakdown that GM Sandy Alderson should hand to Harvey's agent, Scott Boras:
- 2016: $7 million
- 2017: $13 million
- 2018: $19 million
For Harvey, who has already undergone Tommy John surgery, this deal would offer the starter a minifortune, as he awaits the chance to really break the bank in free agency after the 2018 campaign.
Meanwhile, the Mets would get cost certainty as the pitching-rich organization aims to maximize its window of opportunity over the next three seasons.
Potential Deal: Three years, $39 million
SP Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
5 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 23
Contract Status: First-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $2.2 million
Of all the players on this list, Jose Fernandez is the guy who would seem to have the lowest odds of actually inking a long-term contract with his current employer.
As Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported back in November, the Miami Marlins and Scott Boras (Fernandez's agent) have not been in touch about a potential multiyear agreement.
Even if keeping Fernandez in South Beach for the long-run sounds like a long shot, it sure would make a lot of sense.
"They have a Cuban-born player playing in Miami who is a brilliant talent," Boras said on MLB Network Radio, via Andrew Simon of MLB.com. "You couldn't ask for a better fit for all the parties in this situation."
One option for the Marlins to consider would be to buy out Fernandez's three arbitration years. Let's use his $2.2 million salary projection for 2016 as a jumping-off point:
- 2016: $3 million
- 2017: $10 million
- 2018: $17 million
That adds up to $30 million over three years, and it's just a fraction of the sum that Fernandez will earn when he's due to become a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. Still, it's a solid payday for a pitcher who's already undergone Tommy John surgery.
From the Marlins' perspective, the team gets cost certainty with one of the most dynamic starters in the game and doesn't have to worry about any ugly arbitration hearings.
Potential Deal: Three years, $30 million
SP Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
6 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 27
Contract Status: Third-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $10.5 million
As agent Scott Boras sees it, it's the Washington Nationals' call if they want to talk about an extension for Stephen Strasburg this offseason.
“I kind of leave that up to the teams,” Boras told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.
If the Nats do broach the topic, here's how the team should structure its offer:
- 2016: $11 million
- 2017: $30 million (Strasburg can opt out after this season.)
- 2018: $25 million
- 2019: $25 million
- 2020: $25 million
- 2021: $25 million
- 2022: $25 million
In this proposed deal, Strasburg faces an intriguing choice: Opt out at the end of 2017 when he'll be 29 or settle for the long-term guarantee of $166 million. That latter option might just be too lucrative for Strasburg to pass up—especially since injuries limited him to 23 starts in 2015.
Potential Deal: Seven years, $166 million
2B Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins
7 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 27
Contract Status: First-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $5.9 million
The Miami Marlins are already working to make this happen.
Back in December, Jon Heyman of MLB Network and WFAN reported that the Fish wanted to give Dee Gordon a five-year extension. Gordon wanted seven years.
So why not split the difference and settle on six?
Using his $5.9 million projection for 2016 as a baseline, here's a model of the terms:
- 2016: $7 million
- 2017: $10 million
- 2018: $14 million
- 2019: $14 million
- 2020: $14 million
- 2021: $14 million
In this scenario Gordon gets his payday, and the Marlins get one of the premier table-setters in the game for the long-run. Last season, Gordon not only won a Gold Glove and made the All-Star team for the second year in a row, but he landed in the No. 16 spot on the Senior Circuit MVP ballot.
Potential Deal: Six years, $73 million
3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
8 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 23
Contract Status: First-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $5.9 million
Back at the beginning of the offseason, Dan Duquette, the executive vice president of the Baltimore Orioles, explained that locking up Manny Machado wasn't exactly at the top of the organizational to-do list.
"We've got a lot more work to do, and the fact that Manny's gonna be here for the next three years under his current arrangement doesn't mean that's a backburner item," Duquette said, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. "But we have a lot more urgent things to look at."
Duquette needs to reassess the urgency of the Machado situation.
The 23-year-old was flat-out incredible in 2015, clubbing 30 doubles and 35 home runs while winning the Gold Glove at third.
Here's the breakdown for how Duquette can make Machado a cornerstone at Camden Yards:
- 2016: $7 million
- 2017: $14 million
- 2018: $25 million
- 2019: $25 million
- 2020: $25 million
- 2021: $25 million
Potential Deal: Six years, $121 million
3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
9 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 24
Contract Status: First-Year Arbitration Eligible (He has four years of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player.)
Projected Salary: $6.6 million
The Manny Machado deal that we just laid out provides a perfect framework for Nolan Arenado and the Colorado Rockies.
Like Machado, Arenado is a defensive wizard at third who has big-time pop. Last season, Arenado (who is one year older than Machado) smashed 42 bombs, which was tied for the most in the NL. Since Arenado's 2016 arbitration projection is slightly higher than that of Machado, his overall deal ends up being a bit more lucrative:
- 2016: $8 million
- 2017: $17 million
- 2018: $25 million
- 2019: $25 million
- 2020: $25 million
- 2021: $25 million
As Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post sees it, Arenado's decision to dump agent Scott Boras earlier this offseason can only be a good thing for Colorado.
"While teaming with a new agency is no guarantee that the Rockies will sign Arenado to a long-term extension, it certainly won’t make it less likely. With the Boras in the picture, I thought there was no chance at all."
That's good news for the Rockies who are in the market for a new face of the franchise after jettisoning shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays last summer.
Potential Deal: Six years, $125 million
CL Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
10 of 10
2016 Opening Day Age: 28
Contract Status: Third-Year Arbitration Eligible
Projected Salary: $12.9 million
New York Yankess GM Brian Cashman is gambling on Aroldis Chapman.
The exec snapped up the electric closer in a swap with the Cincinnati Reds even though MLB is currently investigating Chapman under its domestic violence policy.
"Certainly there are some serious issues here that are in play," Cashman admitted to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. "I think it's certainly reflected in some of the acquisition price. There's risk, and I understand that."
Since Cashman is already betting on the Cuban, this would be a smart moment to double down. Cashman should make Chapman an offer to remain in the Bronx for the next three seasons. That would give Chapman some security as he faces a tenuous future, and it would also provide him with a nice pile of cash.
Potential Deal: Three years, $39 million ($13 million per year)
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary arbitration projections courtesy of MLBTradeRumors.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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