Daily Fantasy Football December 27: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

While the casual DraftKings participant focuses solely on the obvious studs and hot hands, the successful one won't leave any stone unturned.

Blake Bortles, David Johnson and Martavis Bryant are superb Week 16 plays, but this isn't breaking news for an informed fantasy football gamer. Not every top performer is going to pop off the page, and those who do will spawn massive ownership rates.

Sunday's stock report eschews the big-name stars to instead study cheaper options on the rise or decline.

Stock Up

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions ($3,800)

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

During Monday night's victory over the defensively inept New Orleans Saints, Ameer Abdullah coughed up his fifth fumble of the season. The issue cost the popular preseason breakout pick playing time earlier in the season, so the rookie braced for the worst.

But the Lions didn't abandon their young running back, who finished with 89 total yards and a touchdown on 11 touches. He admitted to the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett that he feared getting sent back into the doghouse. 

"I kind of expected them to go away from me," Abdullah said. "But they didn't, so that was good so I could finally have the opportunity to prove myself that, 'Hey man, I got short-term memory. Just let me prove that I have that and I can go out there and continue to make plays for y'all.'"

While he's still splitting time with Joique Bell, Abdullah is getting more work under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. He has averaged 12.6 touches over the last five games while registering 4.8 yards per rush. 

For all the early hype bestowed upon him, it makes all the sense in the world for the eliminated Lions to give him an extended look. It's fair to wonder if trouncing the Saints should even count, but he gets another great matchup this weekend. The San Francisco 49ers have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to running backs after New Orleans, and they're a heavy underdog who yield 31.4 points per game on the road.

Two weeks ago, Isaiah Crowell proved under-used tournament gold against San Francisco. Abdullah carries similar upside this Sunday.

James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers ($4,000)

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

After an unsustainable early touchdown barrage, James Jones predictably cooled down. Averaging 3.5 catches and 1.0 touchdown during the first six games screamed for regression, and he has since reached the end zone twice.

The Green Bay Packers receiver, however, has not vanished. With the offense reeling, Aaron Rodgers has again turned to the sturdy 31-year-old over the past two weeks, allowing Jones to break a three-game scoring drought last weekend.

Remember when Davante Adams received 21 targets in Week 10's loss to Detroit? He has since averaged 6.6 looks per bout, totaling 115 yards over those five games. He had his chance at fantasy glory—or at least relevance—as Green Bay's No. 2 receiver, but he couldn't capitalize.

Player	REC	TAR	YDS	TD
Jones	17	37	259	2
Adams	13	33	115	1

Jones has again surpassed his younger teammate on the wideout hierarchy. He's too touchdown-dependent to desire in DraftKings' point-per-reception format, but he's also cheap ($4,000) and carving out a larger role in between the 20s.

Ranked No. 7 in DraftKings scoring against receivers, the Arizona Cardinals aren't a particularly tempting matchup. Still, their league-best offense will provoke a high-scoring clash preventing the Packers from going too run-heavy. Jones isn't a spectacular Week 16 option, but he's the most playable Packer.

Zach Miller, TE, Chicago Bears ($4,000)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Who else is Jay Cutler going to throw to? The Chicago Bears dampened Christmas for their fans by declaring star wide receiver Alshon Jeffery doubtful for Week 16's clash against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Fantasy fiends have monitored Jeffery's injury status on a daily basis all season. The extra legwork proved worthwhile when he played, as he has averaged 89.7 yards per game on 10.3 targets. Without his star pass-catcher, Cutler must look elsewhere versus a Buccaneers defense relinquishing an NFL-worst 69.2 completion percentage.

Matt Forte will benefit with added handoffs and dump-off passes, but he's not cheap at $6,500. Zach Miller, meanwhile, costs $4,000 after recording 11 receptions for 142 yards and a score in the past two weeks.

Chicago last played without Jeffery in Week 11. While Miller mustered only three catches for 47 yards, a then-healthy Martellus Bennett matched his six targets against the Denver Broncos' top-ranked passing defenses. Those tight-end looks all belong to Miller now, and a more manageable matchup makes him a borderline top-five choice without accounting for salary.

Stock Down

Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears ($5,200)

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Miller being Chicago's primary receiving target is great for Miller, but not for Cutler.

The 32-year-old quarterback is already a boring option. Sixteen of 28 remaining starting quarterbacks sport a higher DraftKings average than his 17.2 points per contest. Having yet to top 25 points all season, he doesn't wield the upside necessary to stand out in a pass-crazy league.

Take away Jeffery, and he's left to suffer without a significant vertical threat. In four games without his star teammate, Cutler has brandished a tepid 7.12 yards per pass attempt.

While his $5,200 price tag hovers $200 above the bare minimum, the same money can land investors Ryan Fitzpatrick or Teddy Bridgewater. In today's NFL, going seven years without a 4,000-yard passing season doesn't speak well for a quarterback. Unless he deposits 742 yards over the final two contests, Cutler will do just that, once again proving he's not a viable fantasy starter.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns ($3,700)

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Crowell's Week 14 success is enough to make Detroit's league-worst rushing offense enticing against the 49ers. It's not, however, enough to treat the Cleveland Browns rusher as anything more than a one-week wonder.

He pounced on a vulnerable opponent, blistering San Francisco's defense for 145 yards and two scores on 20 carries. A week later, he returned to normalcy, netting 30 yards against the Seattle Seahawks.

Those unable to see through the mirage watched Crowell's 15 minutes of fame shatter. He's averaging 40.4 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry, never topping 75 rushing yards outside of the lone outlier.

Seattle's stifling defense sent him to the other end of the matchup scale, but he'll remain on that side against the Kansas City Chiefs. They have allowed 3.9 yards per run and the third-fewest DraftKings points to running backs. Winners of eight straight, they're likely to lead throughout their home tilt with the 3-11 Cleveland Browns.

Kudos to anyone who utilized him in Week 14, but he's not even on this weekend's radar.

Fantasy scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com unless otherwise noted.

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