Fantasy Players with Playing-Time Concerns During Championship Weeks

On the surface, playing time shouldn’t be a major concern for prominent fantasy options in championship lineups. No top seeds are clinched, and playoff spots are still up for grabs in both the AFC and NFC.

However, the playoff picture may start taking shape as games are completed, so some concern remains for those with championships on the line.

In addition to playoff contenders, we’ve also reached the point of the season where those eliminated go into evaluation mode. There have been early hints of this with the treatment of soon-to-be free-agent running back Lamar Miller in Miami and rookie running back Jay Ajayi.

For those trying to lock up a higher seed, like the New England Patriots in the AFC, it’s a mix of sticking with your studs (Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski) while also making a point to get players healthy, like wide receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. Those absences then affect the fantasy value of players like Brady. 

Compared to the unpredictability of years past, championship games shouldn’t be too affected by playing-time concerns, but I’ve highlighted six teams and situations to take a closer look at in Week 16.

Minnesota Vikings

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Will the Vikings play it safe with Adrian Peterson if they're already in the playoffs?

There’s not a lot to get excited about when it comes to the running back position in fantasy football, but at least we’ve seen a strong season from Adrian Peterson. Will that season continue Sunday night, or will the ankle injury he suffered in Week 15 be reason enough to keep him out against the New York Giants? 

After Peterson sat out Wednesday’s practice, head coach Mike Zimmer said his star running back would get some work in Thursday’s practice, per Ben Goessling of ESPN. However, that was not the case, as Peterson missed another day. It could be a case of managing Peterson’s practice reps late in the season, but if you have Peterson in your championship lineup, the concerns are valid.

Part of that has to do with the timing of Sunday’s game. Because the Vikings play the last game of the day, they may have a playoff spot clinched before they even take the field. They are in if the Atlanta Falcons lose to the Carolina Panthers or if the Seattle Seahawks beat the St. Louis Rams. Those are both likely outcomes.

Would that give the Vikings pause before playing Peterson? 

They’re still in the hunt to win the NFC North, as they trail the Green Bay Packers by one game, but they have no chance of earning a first-round bye. The Packers can’t clinch the division without winning or tying and getting a loss from the Vikings, but how much would the Vikings care about a first-round home game if they didn’t have Peterson at full strength?

A playoff game wouldn’t matter much if Peterson was limited or possibly out due to his ankle injury, so the Vikings might think twice about how they want to use him Sunday night if a playoff spot is already clinched. It’s definitely something to monitor throughout the weekend.

Dallas Cowboys

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The Cowboys will start quarterback Kellen Moore in Week 16.

The Cowboys clung to life for far too long in the mess known as the NFC East. With their chances of winning the division finally gone, it ended any remote chance of quarterback Tony Romo returning from another clavicle injury.

However, it also opened the door for a change at QB, and that’s exactly what we’re getting with the move to Kellen Moore.

Apparently, the Cowboys had seen enough of Matt Cassel last week because, after praising Moore to the Dallas Morning News in the days leading up to the game against the Jets, they quickly went to him in relief of Cassel and stuck with him despite throwing three interceptions on just 25 attempts.

While he did throw a 10-yard touchdown to wide receiver Dez Bryant, the majority of his performance was bad, which is why concerns for Bryant’s fantasy value remain heading into this week’s matchup with the Buffalo Bills.

Moore hadn’t attempted a pass in his career before last week and now gets his first start ever. If possible, steer clear of the Cowboys.

Carolina Panthers

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Cam Newton was pulled when the Panthers blew out the Falcons two weeks ago. Could it happen again?

The Panthers have a real chance to finish the season undefeated, but will they push the envelope if they have the top seed locked up after this weekend? 

For fantasy owners, the good news is Carolina plays an early-afternoon game in Atlanta against the Falcons, and the only team that can affect their playoff scenario is the Arizona Cardinals, and they don’t play until later in the afternoon. That means the Panthers should roll with their regular, healthy starters, but for how long?

Just two weeks ago, the Panthers beat the Falcons 38-0. Quarterback Cam Newton played just 74 percent of the snaps, while tight end Greg Olsen was out there for 49 percent thanks to a knee injury that ended up being nowhere near as bad as it looked at first glance.

Even though he played just three-quarters of the snaps, Newton still managed to throw for 265 yards and three touchdowns, so his fantasy numbers didn’t take a hit. Olsen’s did with just three receptions for 52 yards, but he was back in action last week, posting six receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown.

Head coach Ron Rivera already ruled out running back Jonathan Stewart for the second straight week due to a foot injury, and Newton went through a limited practice Thursday, so the team is clearly thinking big picture even though the top seed hasn’t been locked up yet.

You shouldn’t shy away from playing Newton or Olsen in a great matchup with the Falcons, but don’t be surprised if they are spectators at some point if we get close to a repeat performance of Week 14.

Miami Dolphins

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The Dolphins may want to get a better look at Jay Ajayi.

Besides the fact he plays for the Miami Dolphins, my deepest fears for running back Lamar Miller came true last week when he was pushed aside for rookie Jay Ajayi. 

Should we really be surprised the Dolphins played Ajayi on 56 percent of the offensive snaps while Miller was limited to 31 percent? Sure, a quad injury to Miller gave the Dolphins the excuse they needed to play Ajayi more, but this was the second time in four games Ajayi outsnapped Miller. The previous time came in Week 12, when they were still alive in the playoff picture.

According to interim offensive coordinator Zac Taylor, there’s not a reason the team has limited Miller’s carries, per Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald. Could it be that a mandate from above said Ajayi needs to play more since he has a better chance of being the Dolphins’ starter next season with Miller hitting free agency? That makes sense, but the team doesn’t want to admit it. 

For fantasy owners, Miller’s been a major tease all season, and not through any fault of his own. He posted 20 carries for 113 yards in Week 13 and followed that up with 89 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries in Week 14. Last week yielded nine carries for 12 yards.

When given the chance, the production has been there, but you can’t rely on those opportunities to be there, so stay away from Miller.

New England Patriots

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The Patriots could keep Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman out for another week.

Coming into Week 16, we know the Patriots have clinched a first-round bye in the AFC, but they can lock up the top spot and home-field advantage throughout with a victory over the New York Jets.

No teams playing Sunday can affect New England’s clinching scenario, so it should give the Patriots every reason to do anything possible to win.

If the Patriots are thinking further down the road, they probably want their key players to be ready for the playoff run, which is why fantasy owners playing for a championship can’t depend on wide receivers Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman to be available this weekend.

Both Amendola (knee) and Edelman (foot) have gone through limited practices this week, but that doesn’t mean they’re preparing to play. Edelman hasn’t played since going down in Week 10, and Amendola left Week 15 early in just his third game back since sitting out Week 12.

The Patriots have an early kickoff Sunday, so you’ll know what the deal is with Amendola and Edelman rather quickly. Knowing both Amendola and Edelman are likely out of the mix this weekend is important knowledge because of what it means to quarterback Tom Brady.

Since Edelman went down in Week 11, Brady’s thrown for at least 300 yards just one time. Yes, he still has tight end Rob Gronkowski, but playing without two of his best receivers slightly downgrades Brady from top fantasy QB to a typical, top-10 option.

Tennessee Titans

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The Titans have no reason to risk Marcus Mariota in the final two weeks.

At 3-11, we know the Titans aren’t going anywhere this season, so they have to start thinking of their future. That’s why it makes sense to sit quarterback Marcus Mariota for the final two games after he suffered a sprained right MCL in Week 15 and why ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported Mariota would miss those final two games.

Since that report came out, interim head coach Mike Mularkey confirmed Mariota would miss Week 16, but he denied Mariota has already been ruled out for Week 17, per Jason Wolf of the Tennessean. The denial seems strange and unnecessary for multiple reasons, not the least of which is the team’s record. 

The Titans have already mangled Mariota’s health once this year when former head coach Ken Whisenhunt left him in a game earlier this season despite what was eventually diagnosed as a sprained left MCL. He missed two games after that, and Whisenhunt was fired before Mariota even took the field again.

Also, it’s not like the Titans are hurting for a backup in the last two weeks. Second-year quarterback Zach Mettenberger is far from the worst backup to start in the NFL this season, and the final two games could give the team a chance to showcase him with the idea of trading him in the offseason. Mettenberger was part of wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham’s six-catch, 113-yard performance last week. 

If the Titans are smart, Mariota won’t play the final two games. It wouldn’t be a big hit to Green-Beckham’s value if Mettenberger starts. Other than tight end Delanie Walker, it’s not like you’d be using any other Titans in your championship lineups, anyway. 

Any snap-count statistics were taken from Pro Football Focus, unless otherwise noted.