Fantasy Football Week 16: Ranking the Top Sleeper Matchups

With imaginary glory on the line during the fantasy football playoffs, we discuss which undervalued sleeper assets have the best matchups and opportunities heading into Week 16 of the NFL season.

Cameron Artis-Payne is now potentially the lead back on the undefeated Carolina Panthers' rushing attack that ranks third in football in yards and tops in attempts in the league. You can find this rookie for free in over 60 percent of ESPN leagues despite his tallying 93 yards from scrimmage on a team-leading 16 touches in Week 15.

Not every team in the fantasy finals is a juggernaut roster rife with superstars at every spot, as patchwork teams with waiver warriors also take down leagues at this time of year. From fantasy free agency to crucial championship commodity, surging sleepers like Artis-Payne are vital for many contending fantasy teams.

We explore, in ascending order, which of these rising commodities can best help fantasy managers during these win-or-go-home weekends. As always, please feel free to share any sleepers or lineup decisions you are considering heading into this crucial week of fantasy football competition. 

The Vikings' Stefon Diggs Looks to Stay Hot Versus Generous Giants Defense

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs' rookie campaign has proved equal parts brilliant and inconsistent. The Minnesota Vikings rank 31st in the NFL in passing yards and last in attempts on the season. To offer some context, the Vikings pass the ball 29 times per game, while the New Orleans Saints average 42 to lead the league.

One thing is undeniable, however; Diggs is a playmaker after the catch and in the red zone whenever he gets targets. We saw the Maryland product turn in two electrifying scores in Week 15: the over-the-shoulder dime from quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in the picture above and a physical 35-yard score that included 28 yards after the catch.

Diggs ranks 22nd among NFL receivers with a 14.7 yards-per-catch average and has averaged 25.1 yards after contact per game, ranking 18th at the position, per an ESPN database. Diggs averages 1.2 fantasy points per target this season in ESPN leagues. Oakland Raiders wideout Amari Cooper has averaged 1.1 fantasy points per target, albeit over a more significant sample size. 

The New York Giants have allowed 2,683 yards to receivers this season. That sounds like a lot because it is—the Giants rank 30th in defending wideouts this season in yardage and 28th in regard to allowing points-per-reception points to receivers. Diggs faces this soft secondary on Sunday night in prime time. 

You can find Diggs available for a few clicks in well over 40 percent of ESPN leagues as of press time, especially with waivers having already passed in most formats.

There is clearly a low floor in place given how low-volume the Vikings' passing offense has trended, but with Bridgewater warming up and star running back Adrian Peterson ailing, both matchup and big-play metrics suggest Diggs has some big box scores in the spectrum of possible outcomes for Week 16. 

It's Time for Cameron Artis-Payne to Shine for the Carolina Panthers

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Cameron Artis-Payne entered Week 15 with just 12 career NFL carries and no receptions. The Carolina Panthers' rookie running back tallied 93 yards from scrimmage on 14 carries and two catches this past Sunday to help his team remain undefeated. 

We can find "CAP" available in over 60 percent of ESPN leagues. Using a new name in the fantasy finals might seem foolish, but it's really all about opportunity. The equation for fantasy success is a blend of talent, matchups and opportunity.

We're still figuring out if Artis-Payne is an enduring NFL-caliber feature back in regard to talent, but we can be fairly certain he's headed for double-digit touches and has a sweet matchup ahead of him. 

The opponent this week, the reeling Atlanta Falcons, has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to backfields in standard leagues and the fourth-most in PPR formats this season. The Panthers lead the league in rushing attempts and are third in rushing yardage. As heavy favorites over a familiar and feeble foe, the propensity to trend run-heavy in late-game script is a potential key for Artis-Payne's having an influential statistical showing. 

Like we said, risking a rookie back with fewer than 30 career touches in the fantasy finals is, well, risky. It's also part of what drives fantasy football—the idea of leveraging risk into rewards with our lineup decisions.

Even with his lack of pedigree, it's perfectly reasonable to consider Artis-Payne a top-15 option at running back this week given his team's strong rushing identity and the inviting division matchup.

Christine Michael Claims Intriguing Fantasy Football Upside in Week 16

Stephen Brashear/Getty Images

Raise your hand if you've owned running back Christine Michael at least once this year in fantasy football. It's OK—we are typing with one hand at this point too. The Seattle Seahawks have both hands up, as this is Michael's second stint with the team after being shipped to the Dallas Cowboys earlier this season, creating clouds of false fantasy hype along the way. 

After being cut earlier this season by Dallas, Michael recently joined the Seahawks' decimated backfield out of sheer need, as the team signed him off the street and gave him 16 carries in Week 15.

Gregg Bell of the News Tribune reported Tuesday that quarterback Russell Wilson is fond of Michael's return and revival with team: "To see him (Sunday) out there, No. 32, just seeing him run the ball with explosiveness, with such quickness to the hole, was exciting to see."

Only the Philadelphia Eagles have ceded more rushing yards than the St. Louis Rams since Week 10. The Seahawks offense is tops in football since Week 10, averaging a ridiculous 3.1 points per drive and scoring a touchdown on 40.6 percent of its drives, leading the league by a wide margin. The league average over that span is a touchdown on just 20.1 percent of offensive drives.

The Seahawks' dominant, run-heavy agenda produced almost 200 rushing yards in Week 15 and will again look to thrive as heavy home favorites on Sunday over a reeling Rams rush defense.

The risk with Michael is arguably higher than taking on, say, Cameron Artis-Payne of the Carolina Panthers, but we also find some pretty stellar upside with Michael given the potential for over 15 touches on one of the league's top offenses of the past six weeks.

The Buffalo Bills' Karlos Williams Is a Big, Big-Play Back

Elsa/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills lead the NFL in rushing this season in both total yards and yards per carry, an impressive feat of efficiency given such volume. With LeSean McCoy suffering a torn MCL in Week 15, per ESPN.com, rookie Karlos Williams could be next up on the league's top rushing attack. 

Williams only has journeyman Mike Gillislee to contend with for touches. While Gillislee has flashed some big-play ability lately, let's not forget Williams has seven scores and 479 total yards on just 76 touches this season.

This week's opponent is the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to backs in ESPN standard scoring this season. The Bills will look to control the line of scrimmage in Orchard Park this Sunday against the equally ball-dominant Cowboys agenda. This scheme begins with feeding their backfield on early downs in order to set up reasonable third-down scenarios. 

Projections and rankings across the industry have Williams poised for a strong slice of the Buffalo backfield workload and RB2 status. We tend to agree, as the Bills' ideal game script involves a dominant early-down rushing presence, something Williams—a big and bruising back who ranked in the 73rd percentile in height (6'1") and 88th in weight (230 lbs) among tailback prospects since 1999, according to Mockdraftable.com—is well-suited for.   

The Jacksonville Jaguars' Denard Robinson Set to Thrive Versus Saints

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Running back Denard Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars could start once again in place of an ailing T.J. Yeldon, who is reportedly still wearing a knee brace because of his MCL injury, per NFL.com. Yeldon is highly questionable at this later stage of the week, with Robinson poised to again take every offensive snap for the team, as he did in Week 15.

Being on the turf often this Sunday afternoon in the Superdome could prove incredibly rewarding for "Shoelace" and his fantasy investors, as the New Orleans Saints have ceded the most fantasy points to backfields this season in ESPN leagues. 

The Saints have allowed 816 rushing yards since Week 10, third-most in the NFL with a league-worst 5.6 yards per carry over that stretch. Robinson has proved to be a productive fantasy option when featured, capable of building yardage via the air and the ground. 

The former Michigan signal-caller has made the impressive transition to running back in the NFL, and for at least this Sunday, it appears he'll be a heavily leveraged feature back against the league's softest defense. For those worried about the Miami Dolphins' Lamar Miller or those who somehow made it this far with parts of the Philadelphia Eagles backfield, Robinson makes for a higher-floor asset to consider for Week 16.