NFL Playoff Picture Week 16: AFC, NFC Scenarios, Predictions for 2015 Postseason

There are but two weeks left in the 2015 NFL regular season and still so much left to decide for the postseason. Six teams have clinched playoff berths, two in the AFC and four in the NFC. 

The 14-0 Carolina Panthers lord over the rest of the league but have still yet to clinch the No. 1 overall seed, with Arizona just two games back in the standings. Perennial Super Bowl contender New England tops the AFC at 12-2, but Cincinnati and Denver lurk close behind in the standings. 

Seeding and battles for a few division crowns highlight the final two weeks of action. The wild-card race in the NFC is simply Seattle jockeying for position with either Minnesota or Green Bay, while the AFC wild-card chase has the New York Jets looking to pip either Pittsburgh or Kansas City for a playoff spot. 

Here's a look at the playoff picture heading into Week 16. If you're looking to go through all the possible postseason permutations for the final weeks of the regular season, have some fun with ESPN.com's playoff machine. Playoff odds and scenarios can also be found at the New York Times.

Seed	AFC	NFC
1	New England (12-2)	Carolina (14-0)
2	Cincinnati (11-3)	Arizona (12-2)
3	Denver (10-4)	Green Bay (10-4)
4	Houston (7-7)	Washington (7-7)
5	Kansas City (9-5)	Seattle (9-5)
6	Pittsburgh (9-5)	Minnesota (9-5)
In the Hunt	New York Jets (9-5)	Atlanta (7-7)
In the Hunt	Indianapolis (6-8)	Philadelphia (6-8)
In the Hunt	Jacksonville (5-9)	New York Giants (6-8)

AFC Predictions

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Let's get the easy, safe prediction out of the way: The Patriots hold on in the final two weeks and clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC. According to Aaron Schatz, writing for ESPN Insider, New England has an 89 percent chance of getting the top seed. If they don't vanquish the Jets in Week 16, the Dolphins will surely fall the next week.

No one could have predicted a pivotal Week 16 would come down to a showdown between A.J. McCarron and Brock Osweiler, but, well, here we are. Cincinnati hits the road to take on Denver in Week 16. Osweiler tossed three touchdowns in a Week 15 loss to Pittsburgh but completed less than 50 percent of his passes. The performance was good, just not good enough to keep up with the Steelers' unstoppable offense. 

McCarron needed 192 passing yards and one touchdown to beat a bad San Francisco team in Week 15. The Bengals went up 21-0 at halftime, dominating in every facet of the game before letting the 49ers back in it a bit late. A.J. Green was hobbled by a back injury and caught just one pass for 37 yards. The star wide receiver cited the defense's effort in getting the Bengals the win.

"That really helped us out," he said, per Cincinnati.com's Jim Owczarski. "We were struggling a little bit so that flipped for the field for us and we capitalized on the opportunities."

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

A similar defensive effort should help the Bengals narrowly edge out the Broncos on Sunday. Denver's running game is in shambles, and Osweiler is not yet good enough to torch one of the best defenses in the league. The result will propel Cincy to the No. 2 seed, while condemning Denver to the—wait for it—sixth seed, as Kansas City swoops in to take over the AFC West division crown.

The Chiefs are perhaps the hottest team in the league and just a game back of the Broncos.

As fate (OK, scheduling) would have it, Kansas City closes out the season with home games against Cleveland and Oakland. The Chiefs are going to beat the Browns handily. Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Khalil Mack and company should give Kansas City a tougher go in the final week, but look for the Chiefs to pull out a win and take the AFC West.

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Denver could drop out of the playoffs entirely if Kansas City, Pittsburgh and New York all win out and the Broncos lose one of their last two. However, the Pats should take care of the Jets in Week 16, enabling Denver to hold on to the final seed. Pittsburgh's borderline unfair passing attack will lead them to road wins over Baltimore and Cleveland in the final two weeks, securing them a fifth seed.

The Jets are the odd team out.

As for the AFC South, 5-9 Jacksonville is still in the running despite a Week 15 loss to Atlanta. The Jags need quite a bit of help if they are to somehow make the postseason, as First Coast News' Mike Kaye details:

"

The Jaguars are 5-9 but still could make the playoffs. The team would need to beat the New Orleans Saints next week and also beat the Houston Texans in Week 17. Along with those victories, the Jaguars would need the Tennessee Titans to beat the Texans and Indianapolis Colts in back-to-back weeks. On top of that, the Colts would also need to lose to the Miami Dolphins next week. In simplistic phrasing, the Jaguars need to win their remaining games and the Texans and Colts would then need to lose their remaining matchups. It is not impossible, but it is seemingly improbable.

"

This probably won't come to pass. Instead, the Houston Texans—currently the AFC South leader—will hold on for a playoff spot by beating Tennessee in Week 16, though it won't be easy. T.J. Yates is out for the year after tearing his ACL in his team's Week 15 win over Indianapolis, while Brian Hoyer's status for the Titans is still unknown, per HoustonTexans.com's Deepi Sidhu. 

This could very well mean Brandon Weeden is calling signals in Week 16. He performed admirably taking over for Yates against the Colts, throwing for 105 yards and one touchdown.

According to the Tennessean's Jason Wolf, the Titans will be starting Zach Mettenberger in place of an injured Marcus Mariota against Houston. Mariota is dangerous, Mettenberger is not (three touchdowns, five interceptions in 2015). This development opens the door for the Texans to win an ugly, low-scoring game against the Titans in Week 16 and keep the playoff dream alive.

Should Houston falter in the final two weeks, Indianapolis will likely get the playoff spot, not Jacksonville.



NFC Predictions

Whether or not Carolina clinches an undefeated regular season, the Panthers will get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Arizona closes out the season with two really tough home games against Green Bay and Seattle. While it's possible the Cardinals drop out of the No. 2 seed with a pair of losses and a pair of Packers wins, it's unlikely.

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Rookie running back David Johnson has finally been unleashed, accounting for 472 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns in the past three weeks. His dynamic presence provides ample balance on offense for quarterback Carson Palmer, a dark-horse MVP candidate, and Arizona's talented receiving corps.

The Cardinals have the talent to compete with any team in the league, but head coach Bruce Arians is all too aware of the importance of postseason advantages with daunting opponents on the horizon.

"I don’t think there’s any doubt that when we play the Packers next week our focus is to get that bye, and knowing there’s a good chance we’re either going to play the Vikings, the Packers or the Seahawks again shortly,” he said, per ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss.

Look for the Cards to beat Green Bay and secure the first-round bye. 

A Packers loss in Week 16 would open the door for Minnesota to win the NFC North. Teddy Bridgewater is coming off a rare performance in Week 15, per Randall Liu, the NFL's director of communications:

Bridgewater gets a favorable matchup against the New York Giants' porous secondary in Week 16. If Minnesota wins that game, it sets up a division-deciding showdown in Week 17 against Green Bay. Bridgewater's recent play has been encouraging and the Vikings defense is excellent when healthy, but it's tough to imagine Aaron Rodgers losing such an important game at home. Green Bay gets the third seed, while Minnesota is relegated to the sixth seed.

Why sixth? Because there is no way Seattle is not going to hold on to the fifth seed in this scenario.

Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind as of late. Check the stats from his last five games.

Date, Opponent	Result	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	CAR	RSH YDS	TD
November 22, San Francisco	W 29-13	24/29	260	3	0	9	30	0
November 29, Pittsburgh	W 39-30	21/30	345	5	0	4	14	0
December 6, Minnesota	W 38-7	21/27	274	3	0	1	51	1
December 13, Baltimore	W 35-6	23/32	292	5	0	9	6	0
December 20, Cleveland	W 30-13	21/30	249	3	0	5	46	0

Wide receiver Doug Baldwin is the main beneficiary here, catching 10 of the touchdown passes listed in the table. Combine that absurd level of play with a capable lead back in Christine Michael—86 yards on 16 carries against Cleveland—and a confident, talented defense, and you have a team that is going to crush St. Louis in Week 16 and perhaps even pip Arizona in the final week.

Atlanta is still technically in the running for the final NFC wild-card spot, but it would take a pair of epic collapses from Minnesota and Seattle to make this happen.

Scott Eklund/Associated Press

This leaves us with the fourth seed, which is a three-way battle between the Redskins, Giants and Eagles for the NFC East title. After losing to Carolina in Week 15, the Giants have just an eight percent chance of making the playoffs, per the New York Times. 

ESPN.com's Dan Graziano lays out the scenario that gets it done:

"It's pretty simple at this point. The only way the Giants can make the playoffs is to win their final two games while Washington loses its final two. Any outcome outside of those, and the Giants miss the playoffs for the fourth year in a row."

Those are slim chances, and it appears the division will go to either Washington or Philadelphia.

The Redskins are the current leaders at 7-7 and play their final two games on the road, meaning Kirk Cousins is likely going to have to bring his excellent home form to enemy territory if his team is to hold and somehow win this division. I say the Eagles take the Week 16 matchup against the Skins, but New York does Washington a solid by defeating the Eagles in Week 17 while Washington takes care of a hapless Dallas squad on the final weekend to win the NFC East.