NFL Predictions Week 15: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

A pair of unexpected Week 14 results swayed Week 15's odds for four NFL teams.

Last Sunday, the slumping New Orleans Saints knocked off the rolling Tampa Bay Buccaneers behind rare defensive competence. After looking lost on both ends of the field for weeks, the St. Louis Rams woke up behind strong efforts from their defense and running back Todd Gurley. As a result, they knocked down the Detroit Lions.

These four squads will trade partners this weekend, with Tampa Bay going to St. Louis on Thursday night and Detroit traveling to The Big Easy for a Monday night showdown. Fresh off a victory and boasting home-field advantage, the Rams and Saints are narrow favorites as of Wednesday morning, courtesy of Odds Shark. Anyone able to overcome recency bias will find two road underdogs poised to triumph.

Away	Home	Spread	Prediction
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	St. Louis Rams	STL -1.5	20-13 TB
New York Jets	Dallas Cowboys	NYJ -3	24-16 NYJ
Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	N/A	17-16 HOU
Kansas City Chiefs	Baltimore Ravens	KC -8.5	30-13 KC
Tennessee Titans	New England Patriots	NE -15.5	38-17 NE
Chicago Bears	Minnesota Vikings	MIN -5.5	26-20 MIN
Atlanta Falcons	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX -3	28-27 JAX
Buffalo Bills	Washington Redskins	Even	27-24 BUF
Carolina Panthers	New York Giants	CAR -5	35-21 CAR
Green Bay Packers	Oakland Raiders	GB -3	23-14 GB
Cleveland Browns	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -16	34-10 SEA
Miami Dolphins	San Diego Chargers	SD -1	30-27 MIA
Denver Broncos	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -7	27-23 PIT
Cincinnati Bengals	San Francisco 49ers	CIN -4.5	20-15 CIN
Arizona Cardinals	Philadelphia Eagles	ARI -3.5	35-24 ARI
Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints	NO -3	31-27 DET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

A fringe playoff contender once upon a time, the Rams scored 54 combined points during a five-game losing streak. Handcuffed by an inability to throw a forward pass, they have fallen to No. 31 in total offense despite Todd Gurley's 88.6 rushing yards per game.

If Gurley doesn't dominate, the Rams don't win. In four victories—he was inactive for their Week 1 stunner over the Seattle Seahawks—the rookie running back has registered 617 total yards and five touchdowns. The league's worst passing offense can't accomplish anything around him, and every opponent knows it.

So the Rams just need 150 yards from their star, and everything is peachy. Good luck with that against Tampa Bay, which has allowed 94.1 rushing yards per contest on 3.4 yards per carry, the NFL's second-lowest average behind the Denver Broncos:

Rank	Team	YPC
1	Denver Broncos	3.3
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.4
3	New York Jets	3.6
4	Seattle Seahawks	3.6
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	3.6

New Orleans ran often during a 24-17 victory, but Tim Hightower only mustered 85 yards on 28 handoffs. The offense inflicted its damage through the air, where quarterback Drew Brees went 31-of-41 for 312 passing yards and two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has yielded the league's highest completion percentage (68.7), but its Week 15 adversary can't exploit that glaring weakness. 

St. Louis, last in every meaningful passing category, hasn't amassed 300 passing yards in a single game this season. In fact, Nick Foles only topped 200 once after Week 1, and Case Keenum has compiled a combined 260 yards on 48 attempts through two underwhelming starts.

Gurley is far more talented than Hightower, but he'll have a giant bull's-eye on his back against a stout front seven led by Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David.

Steve Nesius/Associated Press

The Buccaneers simply need a solid offensive performance after a disappointing showing against the Saints. Per ESPN.com's Rick Brown, head coach Lovie Smith wouldn't blame rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, who accrued his second-fewest passing yards (182) of the season.

"[It's] very seldom after we viewed the tape that we have not liked what Jameis Winston has done," Smith said. "It was the same thing [Sunday]. There were a few balls that were off. ... But Jameis made good plays right up until the last pass he threw to get us back in it, or have a chance to get us back in it."

The Rams' 68.6 opposing completion percentage would rank last if not for the Buccaneers. Unlike Detroit, Tampa Bay can also attack on the ground with Doug Martin, who has posted 508 rushing yards over the last four games.

While Tampa Bay's slim playoff chances got noticeably slimmer last Sunday, they will return to .500 on Thursday night.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Despite New Orleans losing eight of its last 14 home games, the Superdome allure still looms large over Monday night. Per the Detroit Free Press' Carlos Monarrez, the Saints have won seven of their last eight Monday Night Football games at home, the lone loss coming last year against the Baltimore Ravens.

The easy narrative, however, will overstate any edge. Simply put, these Saints aren't as good as past iterations. Even after a solid display against the Buccaneers, they have surrendered the most yards per pass attempt (8.5), yards per run (5.0) and points per game (30.5).

To be fair, the 4-9 Lions aren't much better. After a crushing loss to the Green Bay Packers ended on an improbable Hail Mary, they lost to a team in the Rams that would consider a 16-yard pass miraculous. Yet they have showed some progress following a terrible start.

Since getting dismantled by the Kansas City Chiefs in London, they're 3-2 with a plus-27 scoring margin. When gifted a poor Philadelphia Eagles defense on Thanksgiving, they expressed their gratitude with 45 points that included quarterback Matthew Stafford tossing three of his five touchdown passes to wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

Against the Rams, the star wideout was held to one catch for 16 yards. Bleacher Report's Michael Tanier mocked the Lions' atypical usage of Johnson: 

Head coach Jim Caldwell described Megatron's inactivity to the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett as an inevitable outlier rather than a trend:

"

You can always kind of look at it and see and try to analyze (how you can get him the ball more). But in our game, the way we play, how we work, that ball gets spread around and it's not going to happen every game. It's not realistic. He's not going to catch nine balls every single time we're out. So that's the way it happens sometimes.

"

Against New Orleans, nine catches are a reasonable projection. Unless Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah can finally ignite a dull rushing attack, Stafford will spend all day dissecting New Orleans through the air.

Detroit has coughed up the fourth-highest quarterback rating (101.2), so Drew Brees will keep up enough to keep things interesting. The Lions, however, haven't allowed more than 23 points in a game since relinquishing 45 to the Chiefs.

Like last Monday's matchup, the Saints and Lions offer a battle of two subpar squads that will at least provide an entertaining offensive bout. Several fantasy players are going to watch their season slip away in a shootout that could come down to which team has the ball last.