
Daily Fantasy Football December 13: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down
The hours before a weekend kickoff mean the culmination of a week's worth of stock changes in the realm of daily fantasy football and a serious crunch period if owners mean to compete.
A cheat sheet of sorts always helps.
With last-minute injury adjustments, lineup changes, weather and a number of other factors bordering on countless territory shifting the stock market, owners cannot afford to take a pass on free help.
Within, let's review the biggest alterations to the stock market a few hours before kickoff and what it means for owners looking to take down any and all kinds of formats over the weekend.
Stock Up: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions ($7,400)
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It's been an odd season for Detroit Lions wideout Calvin Johnson, who struggled as of late with less than 14 points in two of his last three outings, failing to effectively double his asking price.
To make matters worse, Megatron didn't suit up Friday, putting his status in question for the weekend.
Until now.
According to Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com, the questionable tag isn't something to worry about:
"Calvin Johnson didn’t practice Friday, as coaches continue to manage his workload on his injured ankle, but Megatron should be good to go for Sunday's game in St. Louis. He’s officially listed as questionable, but the Lions have listed him as questionable on their injury report for the last month and he’s played in every game this season.
"
At the least, this gives owners another top-tier option. A matchup with the St. Louis Rams sounds scary, but the Rams have let up an uncharacteristic four touchdowns to wideouts over their last three outings and Megatron has such a nickname for good reason.
Stock Down: Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers ($3,800)
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Bargain hunters don't have a choice but to look at San Diego Chargers rookie back Melvin Gordon each week.
Gloss over him this week, folks.
Gordon seems to have all the talent in the world, but last week the coaching staff's wanting to make it work resulted in a pair of fumbles and eventually benching the rookie.
It also led to this from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune: "Few inside the organization believe it will come together for you this season. You’ve lost so much confidence. It would be great to see you have at least one moment – to be able to really know you can do it."
That's a plea from Acee to the rookie, but it sounds just like something fantasy owners would say, too. The difference? The reporter's dropping a bit of knowledge with the "Few inside the organization believe it will come together for you this season."
If that's not a Ronda Rousey-esque kick to Gordon's stock, nothing is. Even without the comment, Gordon posted just 6.3 points last week and now faces a Kansas City Chiefs team that in Week 11 held him to 15 carries for 37 yards and 5.9 points.
Stock Up: Zach Miller, TE, Chicago Bears ($2,700)
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Some might ask "who?" when looking at Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller, but others will nod their head thanks to the veteran's 30.7-point outing back in Week 10.
The Week 10 explosion was a taste of what Miller can do if he functions as a primary target in the Jay Cutler-led passing attack.
Going into Sunday this appears to be the case with Miller again now that starter Martellus Bennett sits on injured reserve.
This makes Miller the starter against a Washington team that has allowed six or more catches to tight ends in two consecutive games. It's a nice floor for owners to expect from one of the most cost-effective players around and a nice low-owned gamble for those looking to take down big tournaments.
Stock Down: Charcandrick West, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,100)
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It was fun while it lasted.
Charcandrick West took over for the Chiefs for a few weeks and went for 23.9, 22.2, and 31.1 points, appearing in some of the highest-grossing lineups around in the process.
Last week, though, West returned and paired with Spencer Ware, who ate into the snaps. Herbie Teope of the Topeka Capital-Journal provided the numbers: "Chiefs RB Charcandrick West played on 34 of 51 (67 percent) offensive snaps against Raiders; Spencer Ware played 17 snaps (33 percent)."
It doesn't sound like much, but what the numbers don't show is the fact Ware took the important snaps near the goal line. So while West ran nine times and caught two passes, he totaled just 6.4 points.
Now the runner everywhere but the most important part of the field in a committee, West has to deal with San Diego, a team that held him to 8.4 points in Week 11.
At this price, owners can go up with Javorius Allen ($5,300), if not cheaper and roll the dice on Darren McFadden ($5,000), Chris Ivory ($5,000) or DeMarco Murray ($5,000)
Stock Up: Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos ($4,700)
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Owners have not had an easy time figuring out how to approach the Denver Broncos committee at running back this year.
Week 14, though, looks pretty straightforward.
With Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson in contention for the spot, it seems an injury to the latter makes one the clear-cut play this weekend. According to Mike Klis of 9News, Hillman gets the nod as starter this weekend against the Oakland Raiders with Anderson still battling an ankle issue.
The owner of 14 or more points four times this year, Hillman is a cost-effective option with a solid ceiling. With coaches naming him the starter, there's plenty of carries and targets in the passing game in Hillman's future against a defense that at times looks quite porous against backs.
The dual-threat nature and volume of Hillman's opportunities makes him an intriguing play this weekend. He averages 10.2 points per game already with room to grow when the role increases.
Stock Down: Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans ($5,700)
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For a week, Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota sat on top of the world.
There's no arguing the point—the Oregon product looked like he was back in college while slinging three touchdown scores and running for another while posting 40.92 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
It's back to Earth for Mariota this week, though. He has to hit the road in the cold to take on the New York Jets, an unkind defense for opposing quarterbacks. Last week provided a good example, as New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning encountered the Jets and needed 34 passing attempts just to hit 15.08 points.
Granted, Mariota's a tad more versatile than Manning, but he also doesn't have an Odell Beckham Jr. to spam the ball to when things break down.
Which they will against the Jets. If owners want to roll the dice on a rookie gunslinger this week, it's much, much better to roll with Jameis Winston ($5,500), who is cheaper and gets the miserable New Orleans Saints defense.
Stock Up: Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints ($6,200)
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Say hello to the biggest roller coaster stock ride of the week.
Brandin Cooks started the week unbelievably hot off a 25.4-point outburst against the elite Carolina Panthers defense. The kicker? His price actually dropped by $100.
Then Cooks hit the injury report. What followed was a week-long saga with Cooks fighting through the league's concussion protocol and eventually clearing it, according to ESPN's Mike Triplett.
Nick Underhill of the New Orleans Advocate added context: "Cooks said he never had a concussion. Felt some symptoms that were concussion-like, but never had an actual concussion."
So after quite the journey, it's back to square one with Cooks. He's back to an elite stature in time for a game against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has allowed 14 or more catches to wideouts in five of their last seven outings with seven scores surrendered.
Cooks' average of 16.2 might be just the beginning Sunday if last week's performance against the Panthers is any sign.
Enter the DraftKings $1.25M Play-Action Contest this weekend. Use Promo Code BLEACHER REPORT when you sign up.
Pricing information and scoring data obtained from DraftKings. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus unless otherwise specified.
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