Week 14 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Even when we think we know everything about the NFL, it will continue to surprise us. This isn't likely to change in Week 14.

The New England Patriots looked so dominant two weeks ago, yet they lost their second game in a row Sunday against a Philadelphia Eagles team that looked hopeless until recently. It just goes to show there are no locks in a league like this one.

While the upcoming week has a wide variety of spreads both big and small, there could be a number of underdogs coming out with outright wins. However, the safest bets might be the ones against the teams that have shown little life in recent weeks.

Here is a look at full predictions for the weekend and a breakdown of the best bets for Week 14.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick
Minnesota Vikings	17-24	Arizona Cardinals	MIN +8.5
Seattle Seahawks	23-10	Baltimore Ravens	SEA -6
Tennessee Titans	13-21	New York Jets	NYJ -7
New Orleans Saints	24-31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -4
Atlanta Falcons	16-27	Carolina Panthers	CAR -7.5
San Diego Chargers	7-20	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -10
Buffalo Bills	31-28	Philadelphia Eagles	BUF -1
San Francisco 49ers	20-17	Cleveland Browns	SF +1.5
Detroit Lions	16-13	St. Louis Rams	DET PK
Washington Redskins	20-27	Chicago Bears	CHI -3
Pittsburgh Steelers	24-21	Cincinnati Bengals	PIT +3
Indianapolis Colts	27-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX PK
Oakland Raiders	17-20	Denver Broncos	OAK +7.5
Dallas Cowboys	13-27	Green Bay Packers	GB -7
New England Patriots	21-23	Houston Texans	HOU +3
New York Giants	24-27	Miami Dolphins	MIA +1

Top Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs. New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints were able to have a competitive game against the Carolina Panthers, but this didn't equal a win. The 41-38 defeat featured more of the same terrible defense and was the fourth loss in a row.

While there are a lot of stats that tell you how poorly the Saints were on the defensive side of the ball (as if the 41 points wasn't enough), the most embarrassing might be the six first downs given up by penalty. Many of these came on third downs with a chance to get off the field, but mistakes in the secondary extended drives and allowed the Panthers to keep scoring.

This is embarrassing for a team with so many veteran leaders.

On the other hand, the young Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been finding ways to win. With a come-from-behind victory over the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay has now won three of the last four games and has a legitimate chance to sneak into the playoffs.

Brian Billick was one of many praising the play of rookie quarterback Jameis Winston:

No matter what you think about him, there is no denying Winston has been impressive on the field this year. Now that his receivers are healthy, he has a chance to put up huge numbers against the awful Saints defense and find a way to pull out another victory.

Carolina Panthers (-7.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Another NFC South game and a much bigger divide based on the way the teams have played lately.

The Panthers have their doubters, but this is the best team in football at the moment with a 12-0 record and tons of talent on both sides of the ball. The last game was a bit too close for comfort, but they showed they can win a shootout just as well as they can win a low-scoring battle.

Cam Newton has been especially impressive as of late, as noted by his recent awards:

ESPN's Mike Greenberg gives credit where it is due:

Meanwhile, the defense is much better than it showed in Week 13. Look for a bounce-back week from Luke Kuechly and company against a Falcons offense averaging just 17.2 points per game during a current five-game losing streak. A team that looked elite earlier in the year is struggling as much as anyone in the NFL with Matt Ryan falling apart at quarterback.

A trip to Carolina is usually not a recipe to break out of a slump.

Even with one of the higher spreads of the week, look for the Panthers to earn an easy win to make up for Sunday's nail-biter.

San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Cleveland Browns

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

It seems weird to have any faith in the San Francisco 49ers this season, but the truth is the team has played well over the past month. Blaine Gabbert is 2-2 as a starter against a tough schedule while limiting mistakes and making plays when needed.

Head coach Jim Tomsula praised the quarterback, who replaced Colin Kaepernick earlier in the year, per Janie McCauley of the Associated Press:

"

He's been really steady. Again, the way he's approached his job since he's been here has been really impressive. I think since you've seen him in games on Sundays, you've seen him progress. He's moving along well. Blaine is a talented quarterback. But, we're really excited about where he's at and where he's heading. We still need to keep getting better. And the way he interacts with everybody and the way he handles the offense, all of those things are really good.

"

Even Joe Montana has been impressed with Gabbert's play, which equals as good of an endorsement as you will get in San Francisco. 

At the same time, the defense has greatly improved in recent weeks with young stars stepping up, holding three of the last four opponents to 20 points or less. After a strong effort two weeks ago to limit the Arizona Cardinals to just 19 points, this group shouldn't have too much trouble keeping the Cleveland Browns in check.

While the Browns have named Johnny Manziel the starter for Week 14, that doesn't necessarily change much with a team that hasn't won a game since Week 5. The Saints have the worst defense in football, but Cleveland isn't far behind with the second-most points allowed per game this year. The group hasn't held a team below 30 points since Week 7.

Gabbert isn't quite Montana, but he should be able to move the football against this struggling team and pull out a road win. 

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