Identifying 5 MLB Free Agents Who Should Be Bust-Proof
Little to nothing is guaranteed in Major League Baseball. That includes player production, and especially when you are counting on it for an extended block of time.
That is why signing free agents to huge deals for hundreds of millions of dollars—or even tens of millions—is such a risky and unpredictable proposition for all 30 front offices. The long-term mega contracts always have a realistic chance of busting. It’s the nature of people; it’s the nature of the baseball business.
But on the open market, you have to pay those uncomfortable prices, which include years and in some cases draft picks, to get the player.
This offseason’s free-agent class is rich. There is power, there is defense, there is bullpen help and there is an abundance of starting pitching, with a couple of top-tier arms, some second-level ones and even more below that. Whatever need a club might have, it can cure it for the right price.
The concern with such deals is the player staying productive long enough to live up to the contract. But every year it seems there is a small group of players who appear destined to fulfill expectations. This offseason we can pick out a handful of players on the market who seem to be bust-proof, even with long-term, relatively big-money contracts to their names.
Zack Greinke
1 of 5
Zack Greinke brilliantly stuck an opt-out clause into his six-year, $147 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers that allowed him to become a free agent again after three seasons and $76 million collected. The deal was only brilliant, though, because Greinke produced in those first three seasons before free agency came calling again at age 32.
As it turns out, the right-hander put up the best three-year block of his 12-year career and ended it with a historically great season. Not a bad way to go into the open market.
Greinke’s age would normally scare teams away from a long-term contract with a starting pitcher, but this guy does not rely on a 97 mph fastball. He is more control than power, much in the mold of Greg Maddux, who was productive well into his 30s. Because of his skill set, Greinke projects to age in much the same way, meaning he can be a front-of-the-rotation starter for the next five years.
Helping Greinke’s bust-proof cause, aside from him relying on accuracy and not power, is that he will not cost $200 million, like David Price is predicted to or Max Scherzer did last winter. Greinke will be lurking in the $150 million range, most likely, and potentially a bit more since he is coming off the best season of his career.
Despite his age, Greinke’s route to success and relatively stifled earning power make him a strong candidate to fulfill whatever contract he signs.
Jason Heyward
2 of 5
A player who stands to command up to a decade-long contract worth $200 million, or more, usually is not a realistic candidate to be bust-proof.
Jason Heyward is different. He is not a 40-homer guy—he might not even be a 25-homer guy. He is not coming off one outlying season of greatness. He is not projected to have an OPS in the 1.000s or to drive in 140 runs. Teams understand that while also understanding his worth and how it comes.
Heyward is 26, which is his biggest selling point because a player hitting free agency at that age is a rarity. He plays outstanding defense, albeit in a corner outfield position. He is one of the best base runners in the game, and he has a career .353 OBP when the National League non-pitcher average hasn't been higher than .332 since his rookie year in 2010.
Those skills are not likely to significantly erode for the next five or so years, though there are those who are skeptical.
"I really have a pet peeve with Heyward," an AL talent evaluator told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. "So much of his value is tied up in defense that it makes me nervous giving him a huge deal. The speed and defense will begin to erode in the 30s and then you are left with a tweener bat [13, 11, 14 HRs in past three years].”
Then again, Heyward comes with a completely different set of expectations than a player like Justin Upton, whose value is tied into his power. No one expects Heyward to hit third or fourth in a lineup next season, and the way teams value things like defense and baserunning in this era, they understand what they are getting. And so do fans, who will see a Heyward signing differently than Upton’s or even Yoenis Cespedes’.
The point is this: Heyward is young enough to live up to even a $200 million deal, because by the time he hits his 30s, the market value for elite position players will soar high above what Heyward is likely to be making over the totality of his deal.
Mike Leake
3 of 5
Mike Leake is not an ace. He does not project to be a No. 1 or even a No. 2 starter in some rotations. He has never had an ERA lower than 3.37 in any of his six seasons, and he has never been more than 12 percent better than the National League average, according to Baseball-Reference’s adjusted ERA.
But here is the good news: Leake is 28, has been durable, is one of the elite ground ball starters in the league and has the kind of five-pitch mix that does not rely on power and can play for the duration of, say, a six-year deal.
Another plus for Leake suitors is that he will get only a third-tier payday comparable to the rest of the starter market. That means somewhere between $80-95 million is reasonable depending on the length, and Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumors predicts a five-year, $80 million deal.
At that price, as long as Leake remains slightly above the league for most of the deal, it will be a win.
Byung-Ho Park
4 of 5
Byung-Ho Park is in negotiations with the Minnesota Twins, who won those rights by posting a $12.85 million fee to his Korean Baseball Organization team. Typically, predicting how a hitter from the KBO might fare in the majors is a guessing game.
However, based on Jung-ho Kang’s success in his first season—he finished third in 2015 National League Rookie of the Year voting—and Park’s exit velocities in Korea, the good money is on him being an impact power hitter for the Twins. The team still has to reach a deal with Kang by early December, but assuming they can land him for something more expensive than Kang’s four-year, $11 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, the scouting reports are solid.
“A poor man’s Jose Abreu,” one scout told Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. If that is the case, and if Park indeed comes at a relatively affordable price, he would live up to the billing if he can run into 25 home runs a season.
Considering he has hit 173 home runs the last four seasons in the KBO, that seems doable, making Park far from a bust.
Ryan Madson
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This past season was the first Ryan Madson pitched since 2011 because of Tommy John surgery and then a number of setbacks in his recovery. But upon his return to the majors with the Kansas City Royals, it was as if he never disappeared from the radar.
Madson had a 2.13 ERA and 0.963 WHIP as he played a major role in helping the Royals win their division and the World Series. Based on that, he will get a multiyear contract, especially with several clubs in the market for relievers.
While Madson was trying to get back to the majors, he saved some innings on his arm, so he checks in at a youthful 35 years old. And since he became a full-time reliever in 2007, he has a 2.77 ERA, 152 ERA+ and 3.13 FIP in nearly 400 innings.
Because the innings have not piled up on him over the recent years, and because he still features a 94 mph fastball, Madson should remain about equally productive in a back-end role for the next couple seasons.
