Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 3's Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
Fact: Everyone reading this will still be trying to comprehend Friday morning exactly how they fit that much food into their stomachs on Thanksgiving Day. Fiction: Everyone reading this will regret eating that much.
Thanksgiving is a time for family, friends and, of course, food. Thankfully, our dear friend, baseball's rumor mill, has given us plenty to feast on as the offseason's third week comes to an early end.
Has one team's regrettable decision forever changed the market? Is another youngster with upside about to hit the trade block? Does prodigious power still carry as much value in a trade as it used to?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.
Fact: Miami Is Going to Trade Marcell Ozuna and Keep Jose Fernandez...For Now
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Trade winds have been swirling around Miami's Marcell Ozuna and Jose Fernandez, but the gusts are only strong enough to carry one of them out of South Florida this winter.
It'll be Ozuna—the team's 25-year-old center fielder who declined to discuss an extension with the club in spring training and was at the center of a dispute between Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria and former manager (and general manager) Dan Jennings last season—that finds himself playing elsewhere.
As one executive recently told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick: "I'd be surprised if they keep him. Loria clearly can't stand the guy and everybody knows it."
With no shortage of suitors—Cleveland (via CBS Sports' Jon Heyman) and Seattle (per Crasnick) have both been linked to Ozuna recently—it's only a matter of time before Ozuna is patrolling center field in another ballpark.
As for Jose Fernandez, who, like Ozuna, is a Scott Boras client, multiple sources tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that, despite his continued presence on the rumor mill, Miami's ace isn't available. While things could change quickly and teams would line up to acquire him, the Marlins would be wise to wait.
The market is currently flooded with pitching options for teams in need, and while none of the top arms available enjoy Fernandez's youth, they're also not heading into 2016 on an innings limit, as Fernandez will be in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.
Like Ozuna, there'd be no shortage of suitors were the Marlins to officially put Fernandez on the block. But teams are more likely to pay the hefty ransom it'll take to pry him loose next winter, when the available pitching options are limited.
Fiction: Pittsburgh Will Trade Pedro Alvarez
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After six years in Pittsburgh, Pedro Alvarez is ready for a change of scenery and would like to be traded, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports. The Pirates are known to have been shopping Alvarez, along with second baseman Neil Walker, but there's a problem when it comes to moving their 28-year-old first baseman.
Well, multiple problems, actually.
While Alvarez's power is for real and, as Heyman notes, could perhaps deliver 35-plus home runs in the right ballpark, that's anything but a sure thing. A defensive liability and strikeout machine that doesn't draw many walks, he's essentially the National League's equivalent of Houston's Chris Carter.
An all-or-nothing player that's expected to command a salary in excess of $8 million in his final year of arbitration simply doesn't carry much value, even one with Alvarez's power.
It's far more likely that the Pirates will non-tender the 28-year-old than find a trade partner willing to surrender anything of value to obtain him.
Fact: Brett Lawrie Will Be Traded
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With Oakland's recent acquisition of Jed Lowrie, the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser reports that the A's are expected to trade either Danny Valencia or Brett Lawrie, the latter of which has drawn interest from multiple American League clubs.
Lawrie, who can play second base and third base, has had a solid, albeit unspectacular start to his major league career, hitting .263 with a .736 OPS over parts of five major league seasons. Under team control through 2017, the 25-year-old is simply a more valuable trade chip than the 31-year-old Valencia.
Fiction: Wei-Yin Chen Is a $20 Million Pitcher
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One of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball, Wei-Yin Chen is going to receive a bigger deal than some expect this offseason. If his agent has his way, according to Fox Sports' Jon Morosi, Chen's next deal will pay him in excess of $20 million a year.
Morosi writes: "His agent is Scott Boras. And sources say Boras is prepared to make the case that Chen deserves well north of the $20.625 million average annual value Rick Porcello received in his multiyear extension with the Red Sox around Opening Day 2015."
It's hard to argue with Boras here. Not only was Porcello a disaster in Boston last season, but as Morosi notes, the two years preceding his extension pale in comparison to those Chen delivered during his stretch run to the open market: "Chen, while older than Porcello, had a superior ERA+ in the ’14 and ’15 seasons than Porcello did in ’13 and ’14. Chen also has the benefit of (theoretically) allowing 30 teams to bid up his market price; Porcello was able to speak with only one."
When it comes to this offseason's second tier of available starters, Chen is right at the top of that list. He's going to get paid very well. But just because one team made a mistake doesn't mean others have to follow suit.
Chen will get close, but he's not going to crack the $20 million-a-year plateau.
Fact: Boston Will Be the High Bidder for David Price
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Unless Boston suddenly decides to make the likes of Mookie Betts, Yoan Moncada and Eduardo Rodriguez available, the Red Sox are no longer in a position to trade for an ace, having shipped four prospects to San Diego in exchange for closer Craig Kimbrel.
So it comes as no surprise that, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, Boston will make the highest bid to sign David Price. The southpaw has been absolutely filthy over the course of his career at Fenway Park, going 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts.
But is money everything to Price? Or will he leave money on the table to play where he wants? As Olney notes, we saw Jon Lester do just that last winter, passing on a higher offer from the San Francisco Giants to join the Chicago Cubs.
Either of those teams could be Price's ultimate destination, as they, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals, are all expected to make strong runs at the southpaw, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
While any of those teams—especially the Dodgers—are capable of going dollar-for-dollar with Boston in the world's most expensive game of chicken to acquire Price, the Red Sox need him far more than the rest of the field.
They'll make him the most lucrative offer—but it's anyone's guess as to whether it'll be one that Price can't refuse.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
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