Odds of Every MLB Team's Hottest Offseason Rumor, Speculation Becoming Reality
With the MLB offseason in full swing, the hot stove seemingly provides us with a handful of new rumors to discuss on a daily basis.
At this point in the offseason, prior to the winter meetings, the bulk of the rumors revolve around players who could potentially be available on the trade market as opposed to free agents and where they might wind up signing.
That will all change in a few weeks when the league converges on Nashville, Tennessee, for the annual four-day circus that is the winter meetings. But for now, we have plenty to discuss from the early stages of the offseason.
All of that said, what follows is a look at one notable rumor currently out there for each MLB team and the odds on whether that rumor will turn out to be true (in a few cases, the most notable speculation will be covered).
Note: No rumor was given worse than 100-1 odds, so that can be viewed as the "not going to happen" of odds in this case.
Arizona Diamondbacks: RP Brad Ziegler Closing Again in 2016
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The Speculation
"With Ziegler doing the job that he has, I am looking to better ourselves more than likely in the front end versus the back end (of the bullpen)," Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic on Nov. 21.
Overview
Early this offseason, it looked like the Arizona Diamondbacks would be in the market for both a front-line starter to bolster their rotation and a proven closer to stabilize the back end of their bullpen.
Finding an ace remains a clear need, but the team now appears set to enter the season with veteran Brad Ziegler once again manning the ninth-inning role.
The 36-year-old entered the 2015 season with 33 career saves, but he went 30-of-32 on save chances with a 1.85 ERA and 4.8 K/9 after taking over for Addison Reed.
The low strikeout rate and less-than-overpowering stuff make him far from the prototypical closer, but it's hard to argue with his effectiveness, and he's long been a reliable setup man.
Odds: 1-1
Atlanta Braves: 1B Freddie Freeman as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
"Officials from three different clubs told me that the Braves have indeed shopped first baseman Freddie Freeman, with one saying such a possibility was 'the talk of the Fall League' among scouts about 10 days ago," wrote Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports on Nov. 15.
Overview
The Braves have already moved Cameron Maybin and Andrelton Simmons this offseason, and as they continue their drastic rebuilding efforts, the sentiment has been that they are willing to listen on anyone who is owed money.
Freeman certainly falls into that category, as he's due $118.5 million over the next six years.
However, GM John Coppolella adamantly denied Freeman is available when talking to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
"I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman," Coppolella said. "We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening."
That's pretty cut and dry, but crazier things have happened.
Odds: 100-1
Baltimore Orioles: RF Jay Bruce as a Trade Target
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The Rumor
Jon Morosi of Fox sports tweeted on Nov. 20: "#Orioles have had trade talks with #Reds on Jay Bruce, but there was no momentum toward a deal as of this evening, sources say."
Overview
Much of the Baltimore Orioles' offseason hinges on whether they are able to re-sign slugger Chris Davis, as chances are paying up for him will take them out of the market for any of the other top free agents on the market.
One secondary move the team is reportedly considering is trading for Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce, and after a pair of mediocre seasons, it's unclear exactly what it would cost to land the 28-year-old.
A career .257/.330/.482 hitter heading into the 2014 season who had averaged 27 home runs and 81 RBI per year, he's hit just .222/.288/.406 and averaged 22 home runs and 76 RBI over the past two seasons.
Some of that has been injury related, and with a $12.5 million salary this coming season and a $13 million option with a $1 million buyout for 2017, he'd be a relatively low-cost risk with plenty of upside.
The Orioles are not among the eight teams Bruce can block trades to with his limited no-trade clause, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. In fact, the Orioles are the only AL East team not on that list.
Odds: 12-1
Boston Red Sox: Rotation Upgrade Will Come via Free Agency, Not Trade
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The Speculation
"My thought process is most likely any acquisition we'd make in the starting pitching would first happen as far as the free-agent field is concerned. You never know, but that would be my guess," Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski told reporters (via Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald) following the Craig Kimbrel trade on Nov. 13.
Overview
At this point, the trade market is lacking a true ace with Sonny Gray (OAK) and Chris Sale (CWS) both being unavailable and Jose Fernandez (MIA) still looking like a big part of the Miami Marlins' future.
Guys like Tyson Ross and Carlos Carrasco would certainly help the Boston Red Sox's rotation, but both classify better as No. 2 starters than as bona fide aces.
That lack of an ace on the trade market, coupled with the fact that the Red Sox already paid a steep price in terms of prospects to land closer Craig Kimbrel, makes their focus on the free-agent market that much more understandable.
A lot can change at the winter meetings, and there are always at least a few surprise players who wind up on the move before the offseason is over, but for now, the Red Sox's best chance of getting an ace appears to be in free agency.
Odds: 1-2
Chicago Cubs: A Reunion with SP Jeff Samardzija
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The Rumor
Phil Rogers of MLB.com tweeted on Nov. 18: "Theo Epstein and Jeff Samardzija hanging together tonight in Chicago. Cubs have an interest in him."
Overview
A meeting with Jeff Samardzija could simply be the Chicago Cubs doing their due diligence on the starting pitching market, but there is plenty of reason why a reunion with The Shark makes sense.
The 30-year-old reportedly declined a five-year deal in the $75-80 million range before being traded to the Oakland Athletics at the deadline in 2014, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Now it's hard to see him landing anywhere near that much money.
After a strong showing in Oakland, he was traded to the Chicago White Sox last offseason and his contract year turned out to be a disaster.
He finished the season at 11-13 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.294 WHIP, but with good velocity numbers and a 4.23 FIP, there is some reason to believe he's a solid bounce-back candidate.
At the right price, Samardzija has a chance to be an absolute steal and an awfully good No. 3 starter. If nothing else, he's a good fallback option if the team opts against making a run at someone such as David Price or Jordan Zimmermann.
Odds: 4-1
Chicago White Sox: RF Avisail Garcia as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
"They haven’t moved on from Avisail Garcia, but the White Sox have let teams know the outfielder can be acquired in the right deal," wrote Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago on Nov. 19.
Overview
After playing just 46 games in 2014 due to a torn labrum in his shoulder, Avisail Garcia was back healthy this past season and pegged by many as a potential breakout candidate.
Instead, the 24-year-old hit .257/.309/.365 with 17 doubles, 13 home runs and 59 RBI over 553 at-bats in what was his first full season at the big league level.
Garcia still has terrific upside, but the emergence of rookie Trayce Thompson last season has at least given the White Sox reason to entertain offers for their starting right fielder.
Selling low on a young, controllable player doesn't make much sense for a White Sox team that is still trying to piece things together long term, but if someone is willing to pay for his upside, it's not out of the question to think he could be dealt.
Odds: 25-1
Cincinnati Reds: 3B Todd Frazier as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
Jayson Stark of ESPN tweeted on Nov. 16: "An exec of a team that's talked to the Reds says he's convinced Todd Frazier 'is legitimately out there' to be traded for - for a big return."
Overview
All signs point to both Aroldis Chapman and Jay Bruce being dealt before the start of the 2016 season, but the status of third baseman Todd Frazier as a trade candidate is still somewhat up in the air.
There's no reason for the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds not to at least entertain offers for the 29-year-old, but at the same time, you can make the case he's surpassed Joey Votto as the face of the franchise at this point.
Frazier still has two years of team control remaining, and in an incredibly thin free-agent market for third basemen where David Freese looks like the only viable everyday option, there may be someone willing to give up a king's ransom for the slugger.
This past season, Frazier posted an .806 OPS with 43 doubles, 35 home runs and 89 RBI on his way to a 4.0 WAR. However, it has to be noted, he hit just .220/.274/.390 with 10 home runs in the second half.
The Reds have stockpiled a good deal of young talent, so their rebuild may not take as long as some might expect. Extending Frazier is still a very real possibility, and unless they're absolutely blown away with a trade offer, he likely stays put.
Odds: 50-1
Cleveland Indians: Trading a Starting Pitcher to Improve the Offense
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The Rumor
Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted on Nov. 18: "#BlueJays, #Dodgers, #Yankees among the teams to have at least preliminary trade talks with #Indians, sources say. For each of 3 teams mentioned, #Indians would obtain everyday OF and part with a starting pitcher. Many scenarios in play for CLE."
Overview
As far as rumors go, this one is incredibly vague, as it's unclear which starting pitcher the Cleveland Indians would prefer to move and what outfielders are being offered up by the three teams listed.
It stands to reason that Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer could all be on the table in the right deal as the Indians desperately try to improve an offensive attack that held them back this past season.
Carrasco established himself as a legitimate front-line arm this past season, Salazar had a great second half and is controllable through the 2020 season and Bauer is a potential breakout candidate, as he's yet to tap into his vast potential.
That means none of them will come cheap, so something like an Andre Ethier-and-cash swap for any of those three starters seems unlikely.
Instead, it could mean the Blue Jays building a package around Kevin Pillar, the Dodgers flipping Yasiel Puig or the Yankees coughing up Brett Gardner and prospects.
This is all speculative, but there is no shortage of options for the Indians to explore this winter. In fact, the generally quiet offseason team could very well wind up keeping the rotation intact and exploring other cheaper ways to bolster the offense.
Odds: 3-1
Colorado Rockies: RF Carlos Gonzalez on the Trade Block
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The Speculation
"Bridich's decision to trade star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto last summer for pitching prospects shows that he is willing to deal. If a team approaches Bridich about a trade for rejuvenated right fielder Carlos Gonzalez, he will certainly listen," wrote Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post on Nov. 7.
Overview
If not for an abundance of impact outfielders on the free agent market, Carlos Gonzalez would be a no-brainer to be traded this offseason.
The $37 million left on his deal over the next two years is no longer a roadblock after rebuilding significant value with a 40-homer season.
Those numbers are of course a result of the oft-injured outfielder finally staying healthy, and therein lies the risk for the Colorado Rockies.
Holding onto Gonzalez until the trade deadline or next offseason, when there are fewer options on the market, would likely net a bigger return, but that's all a moot point if the 30-year-old suffers through another injury-plagued season.
After finally pulling the trigger on moving Troy Tulowitzki, a deal seems more likely than ever, but the Rockies won't just give away their star outfielder either.
Odds: 5-1
Detroit Tigers: A Reunion with SP Doug Fister
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The Rumor
Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted on Nov. 18: "Free agent pitcher Doug Fister is drawing interest from the Detroit Tigers, among other teams."
Overview
It's no secret the Detroit Tigers need starting pitching help, as they will likely look to add two starters to slot behind Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and ahead of whichever young arm wins the No. 5 starter job between Daniel Norris and Michael Fulmer.
A run at one of the market's elite-level arms seems unlikely, and signing a second-tier starter and a low-cost veteran with upside seems like a more likely approach.
Doug Fister certainly fits that second description, as he'll almost certainly look for a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild some value after a rough 2015 season.
The 31-year-old went 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA in 15 starts before being demoted to the bullpen, and that came on the heels of a fantastic 2014 season where he went 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA to finish eighth in NL Cy Young voting.
In his two-and-a-half seasons with the Detroit Tigers prior to being traded to the Washington Nationals, Fister was 32-20 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.191 WHIP, and he also went 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA in seven starts and one relief appearance in the postseason.
A reunion makes sense for both sides at this point as Fister looks to position himself as one of the top arms on a thin free-agent market next winter.
Odds: 2-1
Houston Astros: Team Will Acquire an Impact Closer
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The Rumor
Jayson Stark of ESPN tweeted on Nov. 21: "Clubs talking to Astros say they seem 'hell-bent to get a closer.' Checked in on Chapman, Miller, Giles, Boxberger, plus free-agent options."
Overview
Saying a team is checking in on the closer market is one thing, but saying that they are "hell-bent to get a closer" makes it seem awfully likely that one way or another the Houston Astros wind up adding a late-inning arm.
"The Astros have (Andrew) Miller atop their list for a closer, according to a major league source, and (Mark) Melancon is also on that list," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. "The Astros have several prospects they could deal for a top reliever."
After posting an MLB-worst 4.80 ERA in 2014, the Astros took a huge step forward in that department this past season, as they improved to sixth in the league with a 3.27 ERA behind the additions of Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Will Harris.
However, the bullpen still accounted for 30 losses and converted just 39 of 58 save chances, with Gregerson going 31-of-36 on saves as the team's primary closer.
Adding an impact closer would allow Gregerson to slide back to the eighth-inning role where he thrived for much of his career, and it would make the entire bullpen better as a result.
Odds: 1-3
Kansas City Royals: Alex Gordon Gone, Ben Zobrist Could Be Back
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The Rumor
"The Royals had their organizational meetings a day after their World Series parade in Kansas City. GM Dayton Moore met with his scouts to go over possible moves for next season. The concern is losing Alex Gordon and Ben Zobrist. The feeling is that Zobrist could re-sign, but Gordon is likely gone," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe on Nov. 15.
Overview
Letting left fielder Alex Gordon walk will be tough, but it makes sense for the Kansas City Royals from a financial standpoint.
The floor on Gordon appears to be a a five-year, $100 million deal, and with other immediate needs to address and in-house extensions to consider, committing that much money to one player just isn't viable for the small-market Royals.
However, Zobrist will likely be available for fewer years and a lower annual salary, even with a ton of teams interested, simply due to the fact that he'll be entering his age-35 season.
Bringing back Zobrist and then making a play for someone such as Gerardo Parra to replace Gordon in left field would allow the Royals flexibility to also address right field, the starting rotation and the bullpen as they look to defend their title.
Odds: 1-5 on Gordon walking, 3-1 on Zobrist re-signing
Los Angeles Angels: 1B Chris Davis Being a Free-Agent Target
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The Rumor
"Chris Davis has been connected to the Angels, who wouldn't mind if their pickups are left-handed to balance a righty heavy lineup," wrote Jon Heyman of CBS Sports on Nov. 12.
Overview
One way or another, the Los Angeles Angels have to find some offensive support for Mike Trout this offseason, and Chris Davis would definitely provide that after a 47-homer, 117-RBI season.
After leading all of baseball with 4.77 runs per game in 2014, the Angels' offense fell off dramatically this past season, and that number plummeted to 4.08 runs per game, which was 20th in the majors.
The need for a left-handed bat is a particularly glaring one, as they hit just .236/.289/.256 as a team from the left side, and most of that production came from right fielder Kole Calhoun.
It would be interesting to see where Davis fits defensively with the Angels, as he has some experience playing third base and corner outfield but could also take over full time at first base and push Albert Pujols to designated hitter.
Either way, he'd be a fantastic addition to the middle of their lineup. It's simply a question of whether they're willing to meet his asking price, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports predicted a seven-year, $182 million contract.
A reunion with the Baltimore Orioles still looks like the most likely landing spot for Davis, but if he does leave, the Angels might be the front-runners for his services.
Odds: 5-1
Los Angeles Dodgers: RF Yasiel Puig as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
"So there continues to be a lot of indication that Dodger players and staffers are pretty sick of Puig, and sources within the organization say that the team’s leadership above [president of baseball operations Andrew] Friedman is much more open to the idea of moving Puig than they would’ve been, say, 18 months ago," wrote Buster Olney of ESPN on Nov. 21.
Overview
Yasiel Puig took the league by storm as a rookie in 2013 and then followed that up with a 5.3 WAR season in 2014, but between injuries and overall ineffectiveness, he was essentially a non-factor this past season.
All told, he hit .255/.322/.436 with 11 home runs and 38 RBI in 79 games of action for a 1.1 WAR, and those struggles combined with his status as a frequent distraction in the clubhouse have led to some rumblings that he could be on his way out this offseason.
That said, it's awfully hard to justify selling so low on a 24-year-old who was one of the most dynamic talents in baseball a year ago and is signed to a team-friendly deal through 2018 with one extra year of team control beyond that.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the luxury of spending big in free agency, so they don't necessarily need to give up anything in the way of in-house talent to make the necessary improvements to their roster.
There's a story going around (which Olney mentions in the ESPN Insider article) that Clayton Kershaw requested the Dodgers trade Puig. However, that story comes via former MLB player Andy Van Slyke, who is the father of Dodgers backup outfielder Scott Van Slyke, so it's probably worth taking with a grain of salt.
If that is in fact the case, though, there is a chance the team could look to appease their star hurler.
Odds: 25-1
Miami Marlins: SP Jose Fernandez as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
Craig Mish of Sirius XM tweeted on Nov. 17: "Growing sentiment around Baseball and internally with the @marlins is Jose Fernandez will be traded this offseason."
Overview
The thought of trading Jose Fernandez is crazy, even for the Miami Marlins, right?
Right, but that doesn't mean it won't happen.
"Two Marlins sources say that Jose Fernandez's attitude is becoming a problem, with teammates annoyed that Fernandez 'has become more entitled and cocky' due to perceived favoritism from owner Jeffrey Loria," wrote Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors, based on a Barry Jackson report for the Miami Herald.
To be fair, the 23-year-old has every reason to be cocky given his performance to this point in his career, and on an underperforming team, is it really all that surprising that he's allegedly one of Loria's favorites?
Then there are the ongoing issues between the Marlins' front office and Fernandez's agent, Scott Boras, which have made a potential extension with the ace a touchy subject as well.
These are all roadblocks for the Marlins to overcome, but they are far from a reason to trade one of the best young pitchers in the game before he's even arbitration-eligible.
Odds: 100-1
Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Adam Lind as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweeted on Nov. 20: "Lind could be next #Brewers player to go. 'Lots of activity on him,' one source says. Appeals to AL clubs as DH; .883 OPS vs. RHPs in 2015."
Overview
After trading Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Aramis Ramirez during the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers have already been busy this offseason with closer Francisco Rodriguez traded to the Detroit Tigers.
The rebuilding will likely continue this winter, and there's a good chance first baseman Adam Lind will be the next player out the door via trade.
Lind, who was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays last winter for Marco Estrada, hit .277/.360/.460 with 32 doubles, 20 home runs and 87 RBI in his first and likely only season with the Brewers.
He doesn't hit left-handed pitching at all, but at $8 million this coming season, he's still a steal as the primary side of a platoon.
In the final year of his contract, he's a lock to be traded at some point this coming year, and his value figures to be highest right now with a full season of control ahead of him.
Odds: 1-3
Minnesota Twins: 3B Trevor Plouffe as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
"The Twins have fielded inquiries on Plouffe since they won the bidding on Korean 1B/DH Byung-Ho Park, with teams thinking Minnesota could use Miguel Sano at third. The Twins know Plouffe would be a huge chip in trying to acquire pitching if they decide to go that way. They are actively looking for relievers," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe on Nov. 22.
Overview
Allow me to connect the dots on why Trevor Plouffe is a trade candidate.
Last season, standout rookie Miguel Sano spent the bulk of his time serving as designated hitter, but GM Terry Ryan has already said that he "cannot get into the mindset that he’s going to be a DH," according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune, so at some point he figures to see extended action in the field.
Joe Mauer is currently entrenched at first base, and with $69 million left on his deal over the next three years, he's not going anywhere.
Byung-Ho Park and Mauer will likely split time between first base and DH this coming season, assuming Park signs, so that puts Sano in line to return to his natural position of third base on a regular basis.
That leaves Plouffe as the odd man out, despite a stellar 2015 season that saw him post a .742 OPS with 35 doubles, 22 home runs and 86 RBI for a 2.5 WAR.
The thin free-agent market at third base could mean a good return for the 29-year-old, and the Twins could look to bolster their bullpen in the process.
Odds: 2-1
New York Mets: Still a Chance 2B Daniel Murphy Is Re-Signed
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The Rumor
"The Mets are expected to make a legitimate bid for the free-agent infielder. And there is a belief within the organization that Murphy might consider the Mets even if they are not the highest bidder because he has been a member of the organization for his entire professional career and appeared to enjoy his time," wrote Adam Rubin of ESPN.com on Nov. 18.
Overview
"The Mets must find enough offense to help endure the losses of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, both of whom almost certainly will find greater riches elsewhere via free agency."
That's what Marc Craig of Newsday wrote back on Nov. 7, and indeed, the overwhelming feeling even while the postseason was still going on was that Cespedes and Murphy were both on their way out the door.
While that remains the case with the Cespedes, the team seems to have changed its tune a bit regarding Murphy, who put together a terrific offensive season in 2015.
The 30-year-old hit .281/.322/.449 with 38 doubles, 14 home runs and 73 RBI during the regular season, then exploded for seven home runs and 11 RBI combined between the NLDS and NLCS.
He's a below-average defender at second base, but his versatility came in handy when he was asked to move over to third base in place of the injured David Wright.
Dilson Herrera is waiting in the wings as a potential replacement at second base, and the team could also go with Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores up the middle, but re-signing Murphy would be the best-case scenario from an offensive standpoint.
Odds: 3-1
New York Yankees: RP Andrew Miller as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
"The left-hander's name has been mentioned on the hot stove rumor mill for a few weeks, and while two major-league executives told the Daily News that Yankees general manager Brian Cashman appears willing to move his closer this winter, it seems far from certain that Miller will be wearing another uniform in 2016," wrote Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News on Nov. 18.
Overview
The New York Yankees turned more than a few heads when they signed Andrew Miller to a four-year, $36 million deal last offseason, and they would turn even more if they pulled the trigger on trading him this winter.
In his first season as a closer, Miller converted 36 of 38 save chances with a 2.04 ERA, 0.859 WHIP and 14.6 K/9 to win AL Reliever of the Year honors.
Flipping Miller would likely be part of a major deal to add an impact starter to the Yankees rotation, but we've seen time and again in recent years how valuable a dominant bullpen can be come October.
The one-two punch of Miller and Dellin Betances is arguably the best in all of baseball, and mortgaging that to improve the rotation could wind up being a wash in terms of the overall outlook of the team.
There's no harm in listening to offers on Miller, especially with his value so incredibly high after his 2015 performance, but it would take a slam dunk deal for the Yankees to pull the trigger.
Odds: 20-1
Oakland Athletics: RP Darren O'Day as a Free-Agent Target
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The Rumor
"Forst said that payroll is not an issue at the moment; and indeed, an industry source said that the A’s have interest in the top free-agent reliever, Darren O’Day, who is projected to get a deal worth as much as $36 million this winter," wrote Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle on Nov. 20.
Overview
They may not be viewed as the favorites, but the fact that the Oakland Athletics are in on reliever Darren O'Day at all is surprising.
It doesn't get much smaller market than the A's as far as their payroll is concerned, so getting involved on a reliever who has set a clear asking price in the $28-36 million range over four years doesn't seem to line up with the organizational philosophy.
That being said, you can certainly make the case that upgrading the bullpen is by far the biggest area of need for the A's.
This past season, the relief corps posted an AL-worst 4.63 ERA and converted just 28 of 53 save chances, which played a major role in the team's dismal 19-35 record in one-run games.
A healthy Sean Doolittle would certainly help, and pairing him with someone such as O'Day could legitimately make the bullpen a strength at the back end.
It's still a long shot the A's will commit that kind of money to a reliever, though.
Odds: 12-1
Philadelphia Phillies: RP Ken Giles as a Trade Candidate
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The Rumor
Jayson Stark of ESPN tweeted on Nov. 20: "Phillies downplaying possibility of trading Ken Giles. But teams that have spoken with them expect him to be dealt this winter or in July."
Overview
On the surface, Ken Giles would seem like exactly the kind of player the Philadelphia Phillies would want to hold onto here in the early stages of the rebuilding process.
Giles won't be arbitration-eligible for the first time until after the 2017 season, and he's under team control through 2020. That's exactly what makes him such an attractive trade chip, though.
With guys like Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon both in their final years of arbitration and Andrew Miller on the expensive side for a reliever, Giles is a significantly cheaper option for a team looking to bolster its pen.
He's also one of the best young arms in the game, as the 25-year-old has posted a 1.56 ERA, 1.037 WHIP and 151 strikeouts in 115.2 innings of work over 113 career appearances.
It will take a significant return for the Phillies to pull the trigger on moving him, and they may be in a better position to do it come July when the rest of the reliever market has been sorted out.
However, with a newfound value placed on bullpen dominance, don't be surprised if someone is willing to pay up this winter.
Odds: 5-1
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2B Neil Walker on the Trade Block
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The Rumor
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweeted on Nov. 20: "Pirates have been shopping 2B Neil Walker, who could make $10M+ in arbitration this year. Have talked with Baltimore and others."
Overview
The Pittsburgh Pirates were expected to shop first baseman Pedro Alvarez this offseason, as he's projected to earn $8.1 million in arbitration, according to Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, and graded out as a replacement-level player last season.
Seeing closer Mark Melancon's name pop up in trade rumors, such as Heyman's Nov. 10 report, is also not shocking, as he's coming off a phenomenal season but checks in with a projected salary of $10 million in his final year of arbitration.
However, the Pirates decision to shop Neil Walker is a bit more of a shock.
The 30-year-old has a steep price tag of his own at $10.7 million in his final year of arbitration, but he's also been a key piece of the team's three consecutive postseason appearances.
A staple at second base in Pittsburgh for the past six seasons, Walker has hit .273/.338/.433 and averaged 16 home runs and 70 RBI per season during that span. Elite-level offensive production at the second base position.
As far as replacing Walker, the Pirates do have an in-house option in the form of top prospect Alen Hanson, who hit .263/.313/.387 with 35 extra-base hits and 35 stolen bases for Triple-A Indianapolis this past season.
For a Pirates team in win-now mode, though, cutting ties with Walker would be a tough move to make.
Odds: 10-1
San Diego Padres: RF Matt Kemp and SP Tyson Ross as a Package Deal
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The Rumor
"Kemp, meanwhile, is owed $86 million over the next four years. Is it possible that Preller could pull off the first Kimbrel trade in reverse, attaching Kemp to Ross the way the Braves attached Melvin Upton Jr. to Kimbrel?" opined Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports on Nov. 15.
Overview
After an incredibly busy offseason last winter, it appears the San Diego Padres are looking to do some damage control this winter, as they've already set to work restocking the farm system with the trades of Joaquin Benoit and Craig Kimbrel.
Starters Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and James Shields are all thought to be available on the trade block, but according to reports, the team could also look to unload high-priced outfielder Matt Kemp.
Kemp posted a .755 OPS with 31 doubles, 23 home runs and 100 RBI for the Padres this past season, but his defense remains well below average, and he's still owed $87 million over the next four seasons ($14 million of which will be paid by the Dodgers).
Moving Kemp by himself would be tough, but packaging him with Ross could get a deal done. That may not be the best use of assets, though.
"Such a move would lessen the return on Ross at a time when the Padres badly need to replenish their system," Rosenthal went on to write in the aforementioned article.
The Padres' offseason approach remains something of a mystery, as they are also thought to be in the market for shortstop Ian Desmond, among others. But at this point, lessening the value of Ross by tying him to Kemp doesn't seem to make much sense.
Odds: 18-1
San Francisco Giants: SP Zack Greinke as a Free-Agent Target
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The Rumor
"The rival San Francisco Giants look like they might pose a formidable threat to steal star pitcher Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers. A couple of people even suggested the Giants may be the favorite, though that is speculative," wrote Jon Heyman of CBS Sports on Nov. 20.
Overview
The San Francisco Giants have a clear need to add a second front-line starting pitcher this offseason and money to spend, so the connection to Zack Greinke makes sense on that front.
Signing him would also mean he doesn't re-sign with the division rival Los Angeles Dodgers, which in itself would be a win for the Giants as they look to close the gap in the NL West.
However, the Dodgers still have more money to work with than any team in baseball, and if they truly want Greinke back above all the other starters on the market, it's hard to imagine them not getting a deal done.
Honestly, is Greinke really going to say no to something like a five-year, $175 million deal?
That would give him roughly the same annual salary as Clayton Kershaw at $35 million per year, and it's far more than the Giants would ever consider spending.
That's a hypothetical number, but would it would it really be surprising to see the Dodgers shell out that kind of money, if for no other reason than to keep Greinke from jumping to the Giants?
The Giants will make a push, but it's hard to see any outcome other than Greinke re-signing with the Dodgers at this point.
Odds: 7-1
Seattle Mariners: C Chris Iannetta as a Free-Agent Target
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The Rumor
Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweeted on Nov. 11: "Hear the #Mariners are closing in on a deal with veteran free-agent catcher Chris Iannetta."
Overview
About two weeks ago, it looked like the Seattle Mariners had themselves a new catcher in the form of veteran Chris Iannetta.
However, shortly after the tweet referenced above, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com tweeted that no formal offer had been made to Iannetta and things have been quiet ever since.
With the continued offensive struggles of Mike Zunino leading some to believe he was rushed to the majors and needs to spend some time in the minors despite his terrific receiving skills, the Mariners are clearly in the market for catching help in some form.
Iannetta struggled through a rough 2015 season, as he hit just .188/.293/.335 and eventually lost the bulk of the playing time to rookie Carlos Perez.
However, he's just a year removed from hitting .252/.373/.392 and posting a 2.1 WAR, so the 32-year-old looks like one of the better buy-low candidates on the market at any position this offseason.
Odds: 1-1
St. Louis Cardinals: 1B Chris Davis as a Free-Agent Target
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The Rumor
"The St. Louis Cardinals are interested in free agent Chris Davis and have had discussions in recent weeks with his agent, Scott Boras, according to major-league sources," wrote Jon Morosi of Fox Sports on Nov. 20.
Overview
Everything the St. Louis Cardinals do this offseason is tied to free agent Jason Heyward and whether he decides to re-sign.
If he opts to go elsewhere, the team could make a run at a front-line starting pitcher to help offset the loss of Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery.
However, a better allocation of funds could be to make a splash on the offensive side of things.
The Cardinals won 100 games last season, largely on the strength of their pitching staff, as the offense finished 24th in the league at 3.99 runs per game.
They also finished 25th in the league with 137 home runs, as Matt Carpenter led the team with 28 long balls and was the only player to top 20 on the year.
Adding Chris Davis would be one way to inject some power into the middle of the lineup, as he led the AL with 47 home runs this past season, and his defensive versatility would give the team options.
"The Cardinals, sources say, are intrigued by Davis' ability to play first base, third base, right field and left field," wrote Morosi in the aforementioned article.
It would take one of the biggest contracts in franchise history, and spending big on the free-agent market generally is not the Cardinals' style, but in an ultra-competitive NL Central, it could be a necessary move to keep pace.
Odds: 10-1
Tampa Bay Rays: RPs Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee as Trade Candidates
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The Rumor
Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweeted on Nov. 16: "#Dodgers, #Nationals and #Dbacks are among the teams interested in #Rays relievers Brad Boxberger/Jake McGee."
Overview
With a projected salary of $4.7 million this coming season, according to MLB Trade Rumors, reliever Jake McGee is in line to be the fourth-highest-paid player on the Tampa Bay roster.
It's hard to say he's not worth that kind of money, even after he missed the start of last season following arthroscopic surgery on his elbow.
He finished the year with 19 holds, a 2.41 ERA, 0.938 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 over 39 appearances after saving 19 games and posting a 1.89 ERA the previous season.
In his absence, Brad Boxberger took over the closer's role and wound up earning a spot on the AL All-Star team, as he led the AL with 41 saves to go along with a 3.71 ERA and 10.6 K/9.
Boxberger is still a year away from being arbitration-eligible, so McGee is the more likely reliever to be moved by the cost-conscious Rays.
Freeing up that slice of the payroll could help the team upgrade offensively, which is a more pressing need than setup relief at this point.
Odd: 12-1 on Boxberger, 5-1 on McGee
Texas Rangers: C Jonathan Lucroy as a Trade Target
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The Rumor
"The Brewers made Lucroy unavailable at the All-Star break when the Rangers checked in. But, according to sources and chatter at the meetings, Milwaukee may be more amenable to trade discussions with a new GM (David Stearns) in place," wrote Jon Daniels of the Dallas Morning News on Nov. 14.
Overview
Earlier, we discussed how Adam Lind could be the next player traded by the rebuilding Milwaukee Brewers, but another name worth keeping an eye on is catcher Jonathan Lucroy.
With Matt Wieters accepting his qualifying offer and A.J. Pierzynski re-signing with the Atlanta Braves, the free-agent catching market is already virtually nonexistent.
Chris Iannetta, Geovany Soto, Dioner Navarro and Alex Avila represent the top remaining options.
With that in mind, Lucroy could fetch a huge return this winter, even after a disappointing 2015 season.
The 29-year-old enjoyed a breakout season in 2014 when he hit .301/.373/.465 with 53 doubles, 13 home runs and 69 RBI for a 6.7 WAR and a fourth-place finish in NL MVP voting.
However, he hit just .264/.326/.391 with 20 doubles, seven home runs and 43 RBI for a 1.0 WAR this past season as injuries limited him to 103 games.
He's owed $4 million this coming season and has a $5.25 million option for 2017, so he's still a bargain.
The Rangers employed a platoon of Robinson Chirinos and Chris Gimenez this past season, and the two combined for 15 home runs, 49 RBI and a 2.5 WAR, so the team could do a lot worse.
Still, Lucroy would represent an upgrade, so it's something worth exploring for the team if the price is right.
Odds: 15-1
Toronto Blue Jays: Targeting a Cleveland Indians Starter for an Outfielder
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The Rumor
Jon Morosi of Fox Sports tweeted on Nov. 18: "#BlueJays, #Dodgers, #Yankees among the teams to have at least preliminary trade talks with #Indians, sources say. For each of 3 teams mentioned, #Indians would obtain everyday OF and part with a starting pitcher. Many scenarios in play for CLE."
Overview
This rumor was referenced earlier, and once again it has to be pointed out how incredibly vague it is, but we can narrow it down.
Someone from the trio of Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer is almost certainly who the Blue Jays are targeting in this situation as they look to further bolster the rotation.
Jose Bautista isn't going anywhere, so presumably, it would be either Ben Revere or Kevin Pillar on the table as the "everyday OF" referenced in the tweet.
The Indians need a power bat, so chances are they're not interested in Revere.
Pillar is not exactly a slugger, but he did have 31 doubles, 12 home runs and 56 RBI in 586 at-bats this past season while playing a phenomenal defensive center field.
The Blue Jays still have Dalton Pompey as a potential long-term answer in center field, and Michael Saunders is expected back healthy to give them more outfield depth, so flipping Pillar in a deal for Carrasco or Salazar (he's worth more than Bauer) makes sense to a point.
Still, it's tough to give up on an elite defensive player and solid offensive contributor who's under team control through 2020.
Odds: 25-1
Washington Nationals: RP Darren O'Day as a Free-Agent Target
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The Rumor
Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweeted on Nov. 22: "The #Nationals have joined #Dodgers at top of the Darren O'Day pack, source says. Washington due for a bullpen revamp."
Overview
With Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen both on the trade block, according to Stark, and the Nationals bullpen coming off a season where they ranked 10th in the league with a 3.46 ERA but also tallied 25 losses and 23 blown saves, Crasnick is right in saying the team is due for a bullpen revamp.
Signing Darren O'Day would certainly be a big first step in that process, as he's the consensus top relief arm on the market this winter after of a terrific run in Baltimore.
The 33-year-old had a 1.92 ERA, 0.939 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 in 273 appearances over the past four seasons with the O's, posting a 9.7 WAR during that ranked third among all relievers.
The Nationals appear set to go with a rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross and Tanner Roark, so adding a starter is not a need.
They are also more or less set on the position player side of things, though adding another outfielder seems likely, so at this point upgrading the bullpen may very well be their No. 1 priority.
Outbidding the Dodgers for his services won't be easy, though.
Odds: 5-1
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
